NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: Exploring AMOC controls on the North Atlantic carbon sink using novel inverse and data-constrained models (EXPLANATIONS)

NSFGEO-NERC：合作研究：使用新颖的逆向模型和数据约束模型探索 AMOC 对北大西洋碳汇的控制（解释）

• 批准号: 2347991
• 负责人: Jonathan Lauderdale
• 金额: $ 44万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-02-01 至 2027-01-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2347991&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NSFGEO; NERC; Collaborative; Research; Exploring

The ocean plays a vital role in mitigating climate change, currently absorbing roughly 25% of carbon dioxide emissions released into the atmosphere, with the potential to absorb more than 90% at long-term steady state. The North Atlantic Ocean absorbs a disproportionate amount of this carbon. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), along with its interactions with biogeochemical processes and ocean ecosystems, are key factors in determining the strength and variability of the North Atlantic carbon sink. Although carbon cycle models are used to understand these processes and predict future carbon uptake, these models are often not data-constrained and can produce differing results. This makes it difficult to have confidence in future climate projections. This project aims to address this by 1) estimating the uptake, transport, and storage of carbon in the North Atlantic using newly-available data and numerical methods and 2) quantifying the role of AMOC in driving ocean carbon sink variability. The research results will be shared broadly with the scientific community and the general public. The project will support a team of early career investigators, including postdoctoral researchers in the US and UK. Ultimately, this work will deliver key products with uncertainties to those responsible for disseminating climate science to policymakers, and improve numerical models for more accurate projections of climate change. This is a project jointly funded by the National Science Foundation’s Directorate for Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries. The project team will produce estimates of carbon uptake, transport, and storage in the North Atlantic using novel approaches that combine available observational constraints (from RAPID and OSNAP moored time series and repeat ship transects) with cutting-edge models. The main goal is to explore the role of various factors in carbon sink variability and to separate contributions due to steady-state and non-steady-state processes. They will focus on the period since 1990 and examine the consistency of different observations, the impact of the AMOC and ocean ecosystems, and the role of natural carbon fluxes in driving North Atlantic carbon sink variability. The team will adopt an integrated approach that uses inverse modeling, ocean state estimates, ocean biogeochemical models, and climate model output. This approach will produce multiple complementary products for estimating carbon uptake, transport, and storage in the North Atlantic and help determine the AMOC's role in ocean carbon sink space-time variability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

海洋在减缓气候变化方面发挥着至关重要的作用，目前大约吸收了释放到大气中的二氧化碳排放量的 25%，在长期稳定状态下有可能吸收 90% 以上，而北大西洋的吸收量则不成比例。尽管碳循环模型用于理解北大西洋碳汇的强度和变化，但大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）及其与生物地球化学过程和海洋生态系统的相互作用是决定北大西洋碳汇强度和变化的关键因素。这些过程并预测未来的碳吸收，这些模型通常不受数据限制，并且可能产生不同的结果，这使得人们很难对未来的气候预测有信心，该项目旨在通过 1) 估计吸收、运输和碳吸收来解决这一问题。 2) 量化 AMOC 在驱动海洋碳汇变化中的作用 该项目将与科学界和公众广泛分享。早期职业生涯的团队最终，这项工作将为负责向政策制定者传播气候科学的人员提供具有不确定性的关键产品，并改进数值模型以更准确地预测气候变化。美国国家科学基金会地球科学理事会 (NSF/GEO) 和英国国家环境研究理事会 (NERC) 通过 NSF/GEO-NERC 牵头机构协议，允许美国/英国联合提出一项提案。是由其研究者在预算中所占比例最大的机构提交并进行同行评审。在成功联合确定资助建议后，每个机构将资助其各自国家机构科学家的预算比例。使用将现有观测约束（来自 RAPID 和 OSNAP 系泊时间序列和重复船舶横断面）与尖端模型相结合的新方法来估计北大西洋的碳吸收、运输和储存。主要目标是探索各种因素的作用。影响碳汇变化的因素他们将重点关注 1990 年以来的时期，并研究不同观测结果的一致性、AMOC 和海洋生态系统的影响以及自然碳通量在驱动北移中的作用。该团队将采用逆向建模、海洋状态估计、海洋生物地球化学模型和气候模型输出的综合方法，该方法将产生多种互补产品，用于估计北大西洋的碳吸收、运输和储存。并帮助确定AMOC 在海洋碳汇时空变化中的作用。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。