Conference: Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and their Impacts

会议：极端天气和气候事件的归因及其影响

• 批准号: 2335731
• 负责人: Rachel Silvern
• 金额: $ 10万
• 依托单位: National Academy of Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2335731&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Conference; Attribution; Extreme; Weather; Climate

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (National Academies) will conduct a consensus study that examines current scientific capabilities for attributing extreme weather events and their impacts to human-caused climate change. Extreme weather events—for example, drought, wildfires, extreme heat, and hurricanes—are accelerating in their frequency, magnitude, and impacts on the global community. Impacts from these events can have devastating consequences to natural resources, ecosystems, communities, infrastructure, economies, livelihoods, and human health. Given the significance of extreme weather events, it is critical to improve capabilities to assess and forecast future extreme events and identify strategies to better communicate this science with the public. This activity will inform a broad audience, including governments and regulatory agencies globally, the scientific community, corporate and non-profit entities, the media and science communicators, the legal field, and real estate investment interests. The study will help decision makers and other stakeholders assess the extent to which extreme weather events can be attributed to climate change, identify priorities to improve scientific capabilities, and may inform legal and financial consequences as part of “loss and damage”—policies that support vulnerable countries’ management of impacts from climate change. In particular, the attention of this study to extending scientific tools to regions without well-established capacity could support efforts of frontline communities to manage the impacts of climate change. Building on a 2016 National Academies report that examined the state of extreme weather attribution, an ad hoc committee of experts will author a consensus report that will: provide an updated assessment of current scientific understanding and capabilities; explore the value and utility of attribution science for different applications; assess current capabilities for the attribution of impacts of extreme weather events to climate change; examine methodologies of extreme event attribution, identify challenges, and provide guidance for best practices; provide guidance for engaging different stakeholders; and identify research priorities. The committee will be responsible for gathering and reviewing relevant literature and using its expert judgment to synthesize this information into a consensus report. As input to the study, the committee will organize a large workshop to broadly engage the community of scientists conducting relevant research and stakeholders who will ultimately use this information. The final consensus report will be available publicly upon release via the National Academies Press website and information about the report and its recommendations will be shared broadly with key stakeholder communities.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

美国国家科学院、工程院和医学院（国家科学院）将开展一项共识研究，检验当前将极端天气事件及其对人为造成的气候变化的影响归因的科学能力，例如干旱、野火、极端高温和飓风的频率、强度和对全球社会的影响都在加速，这些事件的影响可能对自然资源、生态系统、社区、基础设施、经济、生计和人类健康造成毁灭性后果。极端天气事件的重要性，提高评估和预测未来极端事件的能力并确定与公众更好地传播这一科学的策略至关重要。这项活动将为广大受众提供信息，包括全球政府和监管机构、科学界、该研究将帮助决策者和其他利益相关者评估极端天气事件在多大程度上归因于气候变化，确定优先事项。提高科学能力，并可能告知法律和财务后果，作为“损失和损害”——支持脆弱国家管理气候变化影响的政策 特别是，本研究关注将科学工具扩展到能力不足的地区，可以支持一线社区管理气候影响的努力。在 2016 年国家科学院审查极端天气归因状况的报告的基础上，一个特设专家委员会将撰写一份共识报告，该报告将： 提供对当前科学认识和能力的最新评估，探索归因的价值和效用；科学为不同的应用；评估极端天气事件对气候变化的影响的归因能力；研究极端事件归因的方法，确定挑战，并为不同利益攸关方的参与提供指导并确定研究重点；委员会负责收集和审查相关文献，并利用专家判断将这些信息综合成共识报告，作为研究的投入，委员会将组织一次大型研讨会，广泛吸引进行相关研究的科学家和最终使用的利益相关者的参与。最终共识报告将公开发布。在通过国家科学院出版社网站发布后，有关该报告及其建议的信息将与主要利益相关者社区广泛分享。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。