RII Track-4:NSF: Improving subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts of Central Pacific extreme hydrometeorological events and their impacts in Hawaii

RII Track-4：NSF：改进中太平洋极端水文气象事件的次季节到季节预报及其对夏威夷的影响

• 批准号: 2327232
• 负责人: Giuseppe Torri
• 金额: $ 29.02万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-01-01 至 2025-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2327232&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RII; Track; NSF; Improving; subseasonal

This Research Infrastructure Improvement Track-4 EPSCoR Research Fellows project will provide a fellowship to an Assistant professor and training for a graduate student at the University of Hawaii. This work will be conducted in collaboration with researchers at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego. Forecasting extreme weather events is essential for safety, preparedness, and infrastructure planning, especially in regions like Hawaiʻi, where the unique geography poses significant challenges. Hawaiʻi’s isolated location increases the importance of early and accurate forecasts to facilitate timely emergency response. This project aims to strengthen the science of forecasting such events in Hawaiʻi by understanding the region’s specific climate complexities. By improving our forecasting capabilities, this endeavor will not only advance scientific research but will also contribute significantly to the well-being and safety of Hawaiʻi’s residents, especially socioeconomically disadvantaged communities that often bear the brunt of extreme weather events.This fellowship will support training opportunities for the PI in subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) weather forecasting by supporting the establishment of a long-term collaboration with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes. The primary objectives of this project are to deepen the understanding of intraseasonal climate variability in the Central Pacific and to develop a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecast system for extreme hydrometeorological events ranging from 2 weeks to 6 months. During the fellowship, this collaboration aims to clarify the impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Hawaiʻi’s hydroclimate using observational and reanalysis data, and to evaluate the accuracy of S2S forecasts in the Central Pacific using a variety of metrics. In addition, an S2S forecast system for Hawaiʻi will be created by downscaling real-time ensemble forecasts. This system could be used by forecasters and other stakeholders to support emergency planning.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该研究基础设施改进 Track-4 EPSCoR 研究员项目将为夏威夷大学的一名助理教授提供奖学金并为一名研究生提供培训。这项工作将与位于美国西部天气和水极端事件中心的研究人员合作进行。加利福尼亚大学圣地亚哥分校斯克里普斯海洋学研究所表示，预测极端天气事件对于安全、防备和基础设施规划至关重要，特别是在夏威夷这样的地区，夏威夷独特的地理位置带来了重大挑战。位置提高了早期准确预报的重要性，以促进及时的应急响应。该项目旨在通过了解该地区特定的气候复杂性来加强预报此类事件的科学性。通过提高我们的预报能力，这一努力不仅将促进科学研究。但也将为夏威夷居民的福祉和安全做出重大贡献，特别是经常遭受极端天气事件影响的社会经济弱势社区。该奖学金将为 PI 提供培训机会通过支持与西部天气和水极端事件中心建立长期合作，进行次季节到季节（S2S）天气预报。该项目的主要目标是加深对中太平洋地区季节内气候变化的了解。开发针对 2 周至 6 个月的极端水文气象事件的次季节到季节 (S2S) 预报系统。使用观测和再分析数据来评估夏威夷的水文气候，并使用各种指标来评估中太平洋 S2S 预报的准确性。此外，还将通过缩小实时集合预报来创建夏威夷的 S2S 预报系统。预报员和其他利益相关者使用该奖项来支持应急计划。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。