RAPID: Drivers and Improving Forecasts of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Wildfire Potential in Hawaii

RAPID：夏威夷次季节到季节性野火潜力的驱动因素和改进预测

• 批准号: 2345296
• 负责人: Giuseppe Torri
• 金额: $ 16.88万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-10-01 至 2024-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2345296&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Drivers; Improving; Forecasts; Subseasonal

Located in the heart of the Pacific Ocean, Hawaii’s unique geography and multiple microclimates make the archipelago particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as extreme weather and wildfires. Accurate and long-term forecasts are critical for emergency preparedness, especially in light of the increasing frequency of devastating wildfires, such as the tragic event on Maui in August 2023. This research addresses this pressing need by advancing the understanding of what drives the intraseasonal variability of wildfires in Hawaii and improving the accuracy of long-term wildfire forecasts. Such advances could have a profound impact on society by enabling more effective emergency planning, thereby protecting both human lives and natural ecosystems.This research focuses on two primary objectives. First, the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) variability of wildfires in Hawaii will be examined using a combination of historical data and reanalysis techniques. The goal is to quantify the S2S variability of wildfires and fire weather in Hawaii and identify the climatic factors that contribute to longer-term fire risk. Second, a forecasting platform will be developed to predict wildfire potential at the S2S scale. State-of-the-art numerical models will be used to generate detailed forecasts that span several weeks into the future. The results of this research will not only provide new insights into the mechanisms that drive wildfires in Hawaii, but will also provide a basic framework for improved emergency response planning, benefiting multiple stakeholders.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

夏威夷位于太平洋中心，独特的地理位置和多种小气候使该群岛特别容易受到极端天气和野火等自然灾害的影响，准确和长期的预报对于应急准备至关重要，特别是考虑到灾害发生频率不断增加。毁灭性的野火，例如 2023 年 8 月发生在毛伊岛的悲惨事件。这项研究通过加深对驱动夏威夷野火季节内变化的因素的理解并提高预测的准确性来满足这一迫切需求。这些进步可以通过实现更有效的应急计划来对社会产生深远的影响，从而保护人类生命和自然生态系统。这项研究的重点是两个主要目标。将结合历史数据和再分析技术来研究夏威夷山火的变化，目标是量化夏威夷山火和火灾天气的 S2S 变化，并确定导致长期火灾风险的气候因素。将开发预测平台来预测S2S规模的野火潜力，将使用最先进的数值模型来生成未来几周的详细预测。这项研究的结果不仅将提供新的见解。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。