NSFGEO-NERC: Collaborative Research: Exploring AMOC controls on the North Atlantic carbon sink using novel inverse and data-constrained models (EXPLANATIONS)

NSFGEO-NERC：合作研究：使用新颖的逆向模型和数据约束模型探索 AMOC 对北大西洋碳汇的控制（解释）

• 批准号: 2347991
• 负责人: Jonathan Lauderdale
• 金额: $ 44万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-02-01 至 2027-01-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2347991&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NSFGEO; NERC; Collaborative; Research; Exploring

The ocean plays a vital role in mitigating climate change, currently absorbing roughly 25% of carbon dioxide emissions released into the atmosphere, with the potential to absorb more than 90% at long-term steady state. The North Atlantic Ocean absorbs a disproportionate amount of this carbon. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), along with its interactions with biogeochemical processes and ocean ecosystems, are key factors in determining the strength and variability of the North Atlantic carbon sink. Although carbon cycle models are used to understand these processes and predict future carbon uptake, these models are often not data-constrained and can produce differing results. This makes it difficult to have confidence in future climate projections. This project aims to address this by 1) estimating the uptake, transport, and storage of carbon in the North Atlantic using newly-available data and numerical methods and 2) quantifying the role of AMOC in driving ocean carbon sink variability. The research results will be shared broadly with the scientific community and the general public. The project will support a team of early career investigators, including postdoctoral researchers in the US and UK. Ultimately, this work will deliver key products with uncertainties to those responsible for disseminating climate science to policymakers, and improve numerical models for more accurate projections of climate change. This is a project jointly funded by the National Science Foundation’s Directorate for Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Agreement. This Agreement allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries. The project team will produce estimates of carbon uptake, transport, and storage in the North Atlantic using novel approaches that combine available observational constraints (from RAPID and OSNAP moored time series and repeat ship transects) with cutting-edge models. The main goal is to explore the role of various factors in carbon sink variability and to separate contributions due to steady-state and non-steady-state processes. They will focus on the period since 1990 and examine the consistency of different observations, the impact of the AMOC and ocean ecosystems, and the role of natural carbon fluxes in driving North Atlantic carbon sink variability. The team will adopt an integrated approach that uses inverse modeling, ocean state estimates, ocean biogeochemical models, and climate model output. This approach will produce multiple complementary products for estimating carbon uptake, transport, and storage in the North Atlantic and help determine the AMOC's role in ocean carbon sink space-time variability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

海洋在缓解气候变化方面起着至关重要的作用，目前吸收了大约25％的二氧化碳排放量释放到大气中，并有可能在长期稳态下吸收超过90％的二氧化碳。北大西洋吸收了这种碳的数量过量。大西洋子午倾覆循环（AMOC）及其与生物地球化学过程和海洋生态系统的相互作用是确定虽然碳循环模型来理解这些过程并预测未来碳吸收的关键因素，这些模型通常不会受到数据约束并可能产生不同的结果。这使得很难对未来的气候项目充满信心。该项目旨在通过1）使用新的可用数据和数值方法来估计北大西洋碳的吸收，运输和存储，以及2）量化AMOC在推动海洋碳汇的可变性中的作用。研究结果将与科学界和公众广泛分享。该项目将支持一个早期职业调查员团队，包括美国和英国的博士后研究人员。最终，这项工作将向负责将气候科学传播给决策者的人们提供不确定性的关键产品，并改善数值模型以更准确。气候变化的预测。这是一个由国家科学基金会地球科学局（NSF/GEO）和英国国家环境研究委员会（NERC）共同资助的项目，该项目通过NSF/GEO-GEO-NERC领先机构协议。该协议允许该机构提交和同行评审的一项联合提案，其调查员的预算比例最大。成功确定奖励建议后，每个机构都资助了支持各自国家机构的科学家的预算比例。该项目团队将使用新颖的方法与可用的观察性约束（来自Rapid and osNAP系泊时间序列以及重复的船舶样本）与尖端模型相结合，对北大西洋进行碳吸收，运输和存储的估计值。主要目标是探索各种因素在碳汇的变异性中的作用，并由于稳态和非状态过程而分离贡献。他们将重点关注自1990年以来的时期，并研究不同观察结果的一致性，AMOC和海洋生态系统的影响以及自然碳通量在推动北大西洋碳汇的可变性中的作用。该团队将采用一种综合方法，该方法使用反向建模，海洋州估计，海洋生物地球化学模型和气候模型输出。这种方法将生产多种完整的产品，以估计北大西洋的碳吸收，运输和存储，并有助于确定AMOC在海洋碳汇水分时空变异性中的作用。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识分子和广泛影响的评估来通过评估来获得的支持。