Collaborative Research: IHBEM: Three-way coupling of water, behavior, and disease in the dynamics of mosquito-borne disease systems

合作研究：IHBEM：蚊媒疾病系统动力学中水、行为和疾病的三向耦合

• 批准号: 2327816
• 负责人: Mary Hayden
• 金额: $ 7.7万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-09-01 至 2027-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2327816&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; IHBEM; Three; way

Complex behavioral responses to information from public health officials, social media, and elsewhere during the COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the limitations of the simplistic assumptions that epidemiological models have traditionally made about human behavior. The investigators of this project hypothesize that human behavior may also play a key role in why diseases transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, such as dengue and Zika, have been so difficult to control. Aedes mosquitoes lay eggs in household water storage containers, meaning that behaviors related to water storage, water consumption, and water container management impact mosquito populations and, thereby, diseases transmitted by these mosquitoes. The central objective of this project is to understand how humans make decisions about preventive actions against Aedes-borne diseases and how those actions in turn affect disease dynamics and subsequent individual-level decision-making. The project will focus on the city of Ibagué, Colombia, where public health officials have long used behavioral approaches to intervene against Aedes-borne diseases. Empirical social science research will investigate how individuals respond to these interventions and characterize differences among individuals in their responses. Mathematical modeling research will estimate the effectiveness of these interventions at the population level. Throughout the project, a close connection with community members and local public health officials will be cultivated to ensure the effective translation of project outcomes. Training and capacity building activities will extend the impacts of the project to settings beyond Ibagué.This project aims to develop a mechanistic understanding of the role of behavior in infectious disease dynamics and mathematical modeling tools that are capable of accounting for those mechanisms, with the ultimate goal of enabling more effective use of public health interventions. The project will be grounded in empirical social science research in Ibagué, a city in Colombia with one of the highest urbanization rates and Aedes-borne disease transmission rates in the country. A combination of observational and experimental approaches will be used to characterize heterogeneity in the adoption of mosquito prevention behaviors in and around the home and to understand the cues that drive the adoption, or neglect, of those behaviors. These empirical findings will be used to develop a mathematical model of individual decision-making around the use of mosquito prevention behaviors in response to individual-level behavioral dispositions that change over time as cues arise and subside. This decision-making model will then be incorporated into an agent-based model of Aedes-borne disease transmission that will be used to infer the effectiveness of behavioral interventions that public health officials use to control Aedes-borne diseases in Ibagué. Finally, a suite of simpler macroscopic models will be developed and assessed with respect to their ability to capture effects of behavioral interventions on epidemiological dynamics simulated with the agent-based model. The ultimate outcome of the project will be the development and validation of minimally complex mathematical models that are capable of predicting responses of epidemiological dynamics to behavioral interventions.This project is jointly funded by the Division of Mathematical Sciences (DMS) in the Directorate of Mathematical and Physical Sciences (MPS), the Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR), and the Division of Social and Economic Sciences (SES) in the Directorate of Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在199年大流行期间，公共卫生官员，社交媒体和其他地方的信息的复杂行为反应揭示了流行病学模型传统上对人类行为的简单假设的局限性。该项目的研究人员假设人类行为也可能在为什么伊德斯蚊子（例如登革热和寨卡）传播的疾病中发挥关键作用。迪亚斯蚊子在家用水库容器中产卵，这意味着与储水，水消耗和水容器管理有关的行为影响了蚊子种群，从而导致这些蚊子传播的疾病。该项目的核心目的是了解人类如何就针对伊德斯疾病的预防措施做出决定，以及这些行动又如何影响疾病动态和随后的个人级别决策。该项目将重点关注哥伦比亚伊巴古市，在那里，公共卫生官员长期以来一直使用行为方法来干预艾德斯 - 裔疾病。经验社会科学研究将调查个人如何应对这些干预措施，并在其反应中表征个人之间的差异。数学建模研究将估计这些干预措施在人群水平上的有效性。通过该项目，将与社区成员和当地公共卫生官员建立密切联系，以确保有效地翻译项目成果。培训和能力建设活动将把项目的影响扩展到Ibagué以外的设置。本项目旨在将机械理解对行为在感染疾病动态中的作用和数学建模工具的作用发展，这些工具能够考虑这些机制，并最终能够更有效地利用公共卫生干预措施。该项目将基于Ibagué的经验社会科学研究，这是哥伦比亚城市的城市化率最高，并且是该国伊德斯 - 传播疾病的传播率之一。观察方法和实验方法的结合将用于表征家庭及其周围蚊子预防行为的异质性，并了解推动采用或忽视这些行为的提示。这些经验发现将用于开发围绕蚊子预防行为的使用的数学模型，以响应个人级别的行为处置，这些行为处置会随着时间的流逝而随着时间的流逝而变化。然后，这种决策模型将被纳入基于代理的伊蚊疾病传播的模型中，该模型将用于推断公共卫生官员用来控制埃德斯 - 出生疾病的行为干预措施的有效性，最终将开发出一系列简单的宏观模型，并评估其对基于表演的动态学动态学的影响的能力，以捕获其能力。该项目的最终结果将是能够预测流行病学动态对行为干预的反应的最小复杂数学模型的开发和验证。该项目由数学科学（DMS）分工（DMS）共同资助了数学科学（MPS），既定能力研究（MPS）的经济研究（MPS），以及刺激性研究（Epsimiss and Scors）（EPSOR）（EPSOR）（EPSOR）（EPSOR）（EPSOR）的（Epsiment）（Epsiment）（Epsive）（社会，行为和经济科学局（SBE）。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的评论标准来评估的。