Collaborative Research: A Physics-Informed Flood Early Warning System for Agricultural Watersheds with Explainable Deep Learning and Process-Based Modeling

合作研究：基于物理的农业流域洪水预警系统，具有可解释的深度学习和基于过程的建模

• 批准号: 2243776
• 负责人: Ibrahim Demir
• 金额: $ 20万
• 依托单位: University of Iowa
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-07-15 至 2026-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2243776&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Physics; Informed; Flood

Global floods and extreme rainfall events have surged by more than 50% this decade and are now occurring at a rate four times higher than in 1980. However, the capability of physical models in predicting flood events remains limited across spatial scales, especially in intensively managed agricultural systems like the Midwestern U.S. The apparent disparity between observed seasonal patterns of extreme precipitation and high streamflow events presents a challenge when using precipitation alone to predict flood occurrence and severity. This project addresses a fundamental question in hydrologic science: how do watershed characteristics and in-land management practices regulate the precipitation-runoff relationship across agriculture-dominated watersheds? The modeling framework in this project will integrate the complex impacts of watershed characteristics, human land use, and management practices into hydrological prediction. An early warning system will be developed for projecting flood occurrence at a granular level in a managed system and will be shared for further evaluation of the flood forecasting performance and uncertainty assessment.The overarching goal of the research is to develop a data-driven, physics-informed early warning system to predict flood occurrence and support communities in agriculture-dominated watersheds across the Midwestern United States. This project will develop a graph-based transformer deep learning approach integrated with process-based hydro-ecological modeling to improve flood prediction accuracy and keep the interpretable structure. The results of the project will be tested, shared, and deployed as a real-time prediction tool on a web-based platform that integrates mapping capabilities, advanced visualizations, and mobile access. The early warning system will be accessible to multiple users, especially underrepresented communities, concerning the direct impacts of flooding on life and property and the indirect effects on the food security, economy, and livelihood of the communities.This project is jointly funded by Hydrologic Sciences, the Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR), and the Directorate for Geosciences to support AI/ML advancement in the geosciences.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

全球洪水和极端降雨事件在这十年中激增了 50% 以上，目前的发生率是 1980 年的四倍。然而，物理模型预测洪水事件的能力在整个空间尺度上仍然有限，特别是在集约管理的地区像美国中西部这样的农业系统，观测到的极端降水和高流量事件的季节性模式之间的明显差异，在仅使用降水来预测洪水发生和严重程度时提出了挑战。该项目解决了水文科学中的一个基本问题：流域特征和内陆管理实践如何调节农业主导流域的降水-径流关系？该项目的建模框架将流域特征、人类土地利用和管理实践的复杂影响纳入水文预测。将开发一个预警系统，用于在管理系统中以粒度级别预测洪水发生，并将共享该系统以进一步评估洪水预报性能和不确定性评估。该研究的首要目标是开发一个数据驱动的物理系统- 知情的早期预警系统可预测洪水发生并为美国中西部以农业为主的流域社区提供支持。该项目将开发一种基于图的变压器深度学习方法，与基于过程的水文生态建模相结合，以提高洪水预测的准确性并保持可解释的结构。该项目的结果将被测试、共享，并作为实时预测工具部署在基于网络的平台上，该平台集成了地图功能、高级可视化和移动访问。该早期预警系统将向多个用户开放，特别是代表性不足的社区，了解洪水对生命和财产的直接影响以及对社区粮食安全、经济和生计的间接影响。该项目由水文科学公司联合资助、促进竞争性研究的既定计划 (EPSCoR) 以及地球科学理事会，以支持地球科学领域的 AI/ML 进步。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。