P2C2: Constraining the Physics that Regulate Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity through Simulation of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Eocene Paleoclimates

P2C2：通过模拟末次盛冰期 (LGM) 和始新世古气候来约束调节平衡气候敏感性的物理原理

• 批准号: 2309580
• 负责人: Christopher Poulsen
• 金额: $ 38.47万
• 依托单位: University of Oregon Eugene
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-10-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2309580&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Constraining; Physics; Regulate; Equilibrium

This project seeks to investigate the causes and magnitude of Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The goal of the proposed project is twofold: (1) to use paleoclimate reconstructions of past cold and warm climates, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Early Eocene, to constrain ECS and its state dependence in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) series including the latest CESM2, and (2) to provide a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the physics that govern past and future ECS. The proposed work will include development of new LGM and Eocene simulations using CESM2 and comparison of ECS in CESM2 simulations with existing LGM and Eocene simulations performed with earlier versions of the model (CESM1.2. and CCSM4) that have very different physics packages. Each simulation will be judged against a synthesis of proxy data and a new paleoclimate reanalysis product in order to evaluate the performance of the CESM versions and to identify the best estimate of ECS. The researchers will analyze this suite of simulations using climate feedback decomposition and radiative locking techniques to investigate the physical processes that regulate ECS under LGM, present, and Eocene conditions. The potential Broader Impacts include model simulations of the LGM and Eocene that would be made publicly available for the broad paleoclimate community for further investigation and model-data comparisons. Other Broader Impacts include outreach activities planned in collaboration with the Earth Camp Program (University of Michigan) to develop a hands-on climate learning module at Camp Davies Field station with the aim to broaden participation of underrepresented minority students in the Earth Sciences. In addition, the project will support the training of an early career scientist (Post-doctoral researcher).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目旨在研究地球等效气候灵敏度（ECS）的原因和幅度。拟议项目的目标是双重的：（1）使用过去的寒冷和温暖气候的古气候重建，最后的冰川最大（LGM）和早期始世，以限制ECS及其在社区地球系统模型（CESM）模型中的国家依赖性（CESM）系列中，包括最新的CESM2，以及（2），以提供对物理学的全面理解，以期为物理和未来进行审查。拟议的工作将包括使用CESM2开发新的LGM和始新世模拟，以及在CESM2模拟中与现有LGM和始新世模拟的ECS进行比较，该模型的早期版本（CESM1.2。和CCSM4）具有非常不同的物理包。为了评估CESM版本的性能并确定EC的最佳估计值，每个仿真将根据代理数据的综合和新的古气候重新分析产物进行判断。研究人员将使用气候反馈分解和辐射锁定技术分析这套模拟，以研究在LGM，当下和始新世条件下调节EC的物理过程。潜在的更广泛的影响包括对LGM和始新世的模型模拟，这些模型将公开用于广泛的古气候社区，以进行进一步的投资和模型数据比较。其他更广泛的影响包括与地球营计划（密歇根大学）合作计划的外展活动，以在戴维斯营地现场开发一个动手的气候学习模块，目的是扩大代表性不足的少数群体在地球科学中的参与。此外，该项目将支持对早期职业科学家的培训（博士后研究人员）。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估标准来评估，被认为是珍贵的支持。