The Impact of Natural Disasters on Businesses and Consumers

自然灾害对企业和消费者的影响

• 批准号: 2242349
• 负责人: Fernando Luco
• 金额: $ 31.08万
• 依托单位: Texas A&M University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-04-01 至 2025-03-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2242349&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Impact; Natural; Disasters; Businesses; Consumers

This project uses detailed data collected in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in Texas in 2017 business closures, credit card purchases, business recovery aid data, and innovative modelling to study the effects of natural disasters on businesses and consumer welfare. It also studies how public aid to businesses after a natural disaster should be allocated to minimize the impact of these disasters on businesses and consumers. The research develops a model of consumer choice and firm re-entry to answer three questions: how large consumer welfare losses after the hurricane were, how effective was aid facilitating business re-entry, and what is the optimal way of allocating aid to help businesses recover from disaster. The innovative research design will allow the researchers to answer these questions effectively. The results of this research will guide policymakers in developing disaster response and resilience efforts to strengthen local economies and to mitigate the adverse effects of natural disasters as well as consequences of climate change and help establish the US as a global leader in business recovery policies after a natural disaster.This research project combines granular data on consumer behavior, flooding, and business closures to model and estimate consumer preferences that allows the PIs to quantify welfare losses due to business closures. At the heart of this part of the project is the development and estimation of a discrete choice model that allows the PIs to recover consumer welfare losses. The project then develops a model of firm re-entry decisions to estimate the effectiveness of government aid to help business re-entry, as well as measure heterogeneity in economic impacts across neighborhoods and industries. Finally, the PIs use these estimates to design and evaluate an aid allocation mechanism that distributes business aid to minimize consumer welfare loss from business exit. The results of this research will provide guidance in developing disaster response and resilience policies to strengthen local economies and mitigate the adverse consequences of natural disasters and climate change as well as help establish the US as a global leader in business recovery policies after a natural disaster.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目使用2017年德克萨斯州飓风哈维（Harvey）在2017年的商业关闭，信用卡购买，商业恢复援助数据和创新建模的详细数据来研究自然灾害对企业和消费者福利的影响。 它还研究了应分配自然灾害后对企业的公共援助，以最大程度地减少这些灾难对企业和消费者的影响。 该研究开发了一种消费者选择和公司重新进入的模型，以回答三个问题：飓风过后的消费者福利损失的大大，援助的有效性促进了业务的重新进入，哪些最佳方法可以帮助援助帮助企业从灾难中恢复过来。 创新的研究设计将使研究人员能够有效回答这些问题。 The results of this research will guide policymakers in developing disaster response and resilience efforts to strengthen local economies and to mitigate the adverse effects of natural disasters as well as consequences of climate change and help establish the US as a global leader in business recovery policies after a natural disaster.This research project combines granular data on consumer behavior, flooding, and business closures to model and estimate consumer preferences that allows the PIs to quantify welfare losses due to business关闭。该项目的核心是开发和估计离散选择模型，该模型使PI可以恢复消费者福利损失。 然后，该项目开发了一个公司重新进入决策的模型，以估计政府援助以帮助业务重新进入的有效性，并衡量社区和行业之间经济影响的异质性。最后，PI使用这些估算来设计和评估分配商业援助的援助分配机制，以最大程度地减少从业务退出中的消费者福利损失。 这项研究的结果将为制定灾难反应和弹性政策提供指导，以加强地方经济，减轻自然灾害和气候变化的不利后果，并帮助将美国作为自然灾害后的全球企业恢复政策领导者。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过评估了基金会的智力效果，并予以审查，并通过评估了基金会的范围。