EAGER: Progressive Derecho Initiation and Propagation in Specific Physical Corridors as Determined by Mesoscale D-PSI Vectors

EAGER：由中尺度 D-PSI 向量确定的特定物理走廊中的渐进 Derecho 启动和传播

• 批准号: 2231695
• 负责人: Michael Kaplan
• 金额: $ 17.67万
• 依托单位: Nevada System of Higher Education, Desert Research Institute
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2231695&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAGER; Progressive; Derecho; Initiation; Propagation

Derechos are one of the atmosphere’s most destructive phenomena. These windstorms are associated with a rapidly moving, massive and growing group of thunderstorms that can last for 10 or more hours and travel well over 600 miles. They are typically accompanied by wind gusts of more than 65 mph as well as damaging lightning, flooding rain, large hail, and even small tornados. They adversely impact agriculture, transportation, and urban safety. A recent derecho in the midwestern U.S. resulted in more than 11 billion dollars of property damage and several fatalities from wind gusts greater than 140 mph. Presently, we do not often predict the intensity, location, and duration of the most devastating derechos nor do we consistently differentiate between the strong and weak derechos only hours in advance. This project will create new technology based on scientific theories and computer visualizations in 4 dimensions to improve the prediction of this damaging phenomenon. The new technology will be available to operational government and private weather forecasters in the form of computer-generated predictions of the atmospheric conditions that are most likely to create derechos. This will potentially enable more accurate prediction of derechos farther in advance than we presently can do thus saving lives and reducing property damage.Presently, operational computer predictions of derechos suffer from a lack of proper synthesis of the precursor physical environment to derecho genesis and motion. The research approach to be undertaken synthesizes many more of the physical conditions that are likely to create long lasting and devastating derechos than has been done before. The larger scale organization of the strong thunderstorms that comprise derechos is the result of the jet stream and unique atmospheric frontal systems that are most likely to occur during extreme heat waves. The theory to be tested represents a unique synthesis of physical processes not previously applied to derechos in either the operational or research environments. Also, the complexity of these physics requires innovative 4-dimensional computer visualization techniques so that operational weather forecasters can understand the many nonlinear processes that have to properly phase to produce derechos. The goal is to substantially improve the reliability of the synthesis of operational computational fluid model predictions of a favorable derecho environment for forecasters and thus extend for the public the lead time of warnings of these devastating windstorms.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

Derechos是气氛最具破坏性的现象之一。这些暴风雨与一群迅速，大规模和成长的雷暴群体相关，可以持续10个或更长时间，并且行驶超过600英里。它们通常伴随着超过65英里 /小时的风机，以及破坏闪电，洪水，大冰雹，甚至是小龙卷风。他们为影响农业，运输和城市安全道歉。最近在美国中西部的Derecho造成了超过110亿美元的财产损失，而WIND造成的几次死亡人数大于140英里 /小时。目前，我们经常不预测最具破坏性的DERECHOS的强度，位置和持续时间，也不会始终仅提前几个小时区分强和弱的无菌。该项目将基于4个维度的科学理论和计算机可视化创建新技术，以改善这种损害的预测新技术，将以计算机生成的预测，以对大气条件的形式进行运营的政府和私人天气预报员，这些预测最有可能造成DERECHOS。这将有可能提前更远，比我们目前所能挽救生命并减少财产损失的更准确地预测。与以前相比，要进行综合的研究方法可能会产生持久和毁灭性的恶化。包括DERECHOS的强雷暴的较大规模组织是喷气流和独特的大气额叶系统的结果，这些系统最有可能在极端热浪中发生。要测试的理论代表了以前在操作或研究环境中未应用于DERECHOS的物理过程的独特综合。同样，这些物理学的复杂性需要创新的4维计算机可视化技术，以便运行天气预测者可以理解许多必须正确相位以产生DERECHOS的非线性过程。目的是实质上提高了对预报员有利的DERECHO环境的合成的可靠性预测，因此扩展了这些毁灭性风暴的警告的交付时间。这奖反映了NSF的法规任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识优点和广泛的critia criter scritia criter scritia criter scritia criter criter criter criter criter criter criter criter criter criter criter criter crietia crietia criteria cristia crietia scritia crietia criteria crietia crietia cristia award awects奖。