Collaborative Research: P2C2--Paleowind Synthesis of Models and Data to Constrain the Response of Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation to External Forcing

合作研究：P2C2——古风模型和数据综合，约束温带大气环流对外强迫的响应

• 批准号: 2202919
• 负责人: Jessica Conroy
• 金额: $ 31.85万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2202919&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Paleowind; Synthesis

This project aims to evaluate numerical model skill in simulating near-surface winds in the Northern hemisphere. Near-surface winds are a surface manifestation of large-scale atmospheric features such as stationary waves which are driven by changes in longitudinal (Meridional) and latitudinal (zonal) temperature gradients. In the future, near-surface winds are expected to change in response to changes in temperature and atmospheric circulation as driven by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. However, projections of future near surface winds show a large uncertainty between the models. The researchers propose to evaluate this uncertainty via past climate data-model synthesis to assess the fidelity of model response to climate drivers outside the observational data. By investigating the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period, the data synthesis and data-model comparison can potentially enhance the understanding of the factors driving changes in Northern hemisphere wind speeds and stationary waves. Further, it can potentially aid to detect model biases that may extend to future climate drivers. The potential Broader Impacts of this project include a novel application of wind proxy records to advance the understanding of past atmospheric circulation and improve future projections of wind variability. This project will generate a paleowind data synthesis in the Northern Hemisphere that will be available for the scientific community and will be publicly accessible. The gained knowledge through this research in terms of wind direction and gustiness can be potentially relevant to future wind energy resources.The proposed research will produce a new synthesis of Northern Hemisphere, extratropical paleowind direction for the LGM from aeolian climate archives. Inferred paleowind direction from loess and dunes chronologically constrained to the LGM will be categorically compared to near-surface wind directions from the LGM simulations of the general circulation models (GCMs) participating the third and fourth Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Projects and the LGM periods of the Transient Climate Evolution and isotope-enabled Transient Climate Evolution (Trace-21k and iTrace) experiments. This comparison will allow the researchers to evaluate metrics for general atmospheric circulation in the top and bottom-ranking models based on the magnitude of data-model agreement. A further comparison with known temperature controls on stationary waves, e.g., the equator to pole temperature gradient and the ocean-land contrast, will be examined considering data-model agreement and stationary wave properties to assess potential model biases. Simulations from single forcing experiments, experiments using different ice sheet models, and the transient deglacial simulation will reveal the role of individual forcing factors and ice sheet orography in setting LGM near-surface wind direction and stationary wave properties. The project will support the careers of two female researchers and the scientific training of one graduate student. Additionally, the researchers will engage in outreach activities that will focus on developing and implementing a new education module for elementary students attending the local STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Math) Studio afterschool program in Champaign, IL. In this new module on weather and climate, with an emphasis on wind, the 20-member 5th grade student class will be given handheld Kestrel 1000 wind instruments to measure wind at different times of day and in different locations during a 6-week module period. The students will discuss with the researchers how weather and particularly, wind speed and direction changes from day to day using their own measurements. The capstone of this module will be a field trip to the local Twin Groves Wind Farm, Ellsworth, IL (west of Champaign, IL) for an educational guided tour.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目旨在评估模拟北半球近地表风的数值模型技能。近地表风是大规模大气特征的表面表现，例如由纵向（经向）和纬向（纬向）温度梯度变化驱动的驻波。未来，由于温室气体浓度上升，预计近地表风将随着温度和大气环流的变化而发生变化。然而，对未来近地表风的预测显示模型之间存在很大的不确定性。研究人员建议通过过去的气候数据模型综合来评估这种不确定性，以评估模型对观测数据之外的气候驱动因素的响应的保真度。通过调查末次盛冰期（LGM），数据合成和数据模型比较可以潜在地增强对驱动北半球风速和驻波变化因素的理解。此外，它可能有助于检测可能延伸到未来气候驱动因素的模型偏差。该项目潜在的更广泛影响包括风代理记录的新颖应用，以增进对过去大气环流的理解并改进对未来风变率的预测。该项目将生成北半球的古风数据综合，可供科学界使用并可供公众访问。通过这项研究获得的风向和阵风方面的知识可能与未来的风能资源相关。拟议的研究将从风成气候档案中对末次盛冰期的北半球、温带古风向进行新的综合。从黄土和沙丘推断的按时间顺序限制于末次盛宴的古风向将与参与第三次和第四次古气候模拟比对项目的大气环流模型（GCM）的末次盛宴模拟以及瞬态末次盛会时期的近地表风向进行明确比较气候演化和同位素支持的瞬态气候演化（Trace-21k 和 iTrace）实验。这种比较将使研究人员能够根据数据模型一致性的程度来评估排名靠前和排名靠后的模型中一般大气环流的指标。将考虑数据模型一致性和驻波特性，对驻波的已知温度控制进行进一步比较，例如赤道到极点的温度梯度和海洋-陆地对比，以评估潜在的模型偏差。单一强迫实验、使用不同冰盖模型的实验以及瞬态冰消模拟的模拟将揭示单个强迫因素和冰盖地形在设定LGM近地表风向和驻波特性中的作用。该项目将支持两名女性研究人员的职业生涯和一名研究生的科学培训。此外，研究人员还将开展外展活动，重点为参加伊利诺伊州尚佩恩当地 STEAM（科学、技术、工程、艺术和数学）工作室课外项目的小学生开发和实施新的教育模块。在这个关于天气和气候的新模块中，重点是风，将为 20 名五年级学生班级提供手持式 Kestrel 1000 风仪器，以便在 6 周的模块期间测量一天中不同时间和不同地点的风。学生们将使用自己的测量结果与研究人员讨论天气，特别是风速和风向如何每天变化。该模块的顶峰将是到伊利诺伊州埃尔斯沃斯当地双格罗夫斯风电场（伊利诺伊州尚佩恩以西）进行教育性导游参观。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用以下评估方法被认为值得支持：基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。