Collaborative Research: P2C2--The Role of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Nonlinearities and Asymmetries in Modulating Tropical Pacific Climate

合作研究：P2C2——厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (ENSO) 非线性和不对称性在调节热带太平洋气候中的作用

• 批准号: 1602580
• 负责人: Jessica Conroy
• 金额: $ 13.33万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-05-15 至 2020-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1602580&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Role; El

This collaborative project generally aims to develop a multi-scale model-proxy synthesis to explore the relationship between multi-decadal ENSO variability and tropical Pacific seas surface temperature (SST) gradients in past climates and help assess model skill in simulating these relationships in past, present, and potential future climates.The activity of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies significantly at multi-decadal to centennial timescales, even in the absence of external forcing. Periods of increased ENSO activity may affect the mean state of the tropical Pacific, via a decrease of the zonal SST gradient due to residual heating from large El Niño events. In turn, ENSO-modulated multi-decadal variations of the zonal SST gradient can exert influence on global temperature trends. These causal links are argued to be poorly constrained in models and observations, at present.The merit of the project is high because it identifies an interesting scientific issue (i.e., the ENSO-mean state interaction) that is important for advancing our understanding the dynamics of ENSO and decadal climate variability that can benefit from using paleo-climate proxies. The anticipated results have the potential to aid in interpreting the decadal variability observed in the present-day climate and the selection of climate models that have the potential to make more accurate projections of future climate.The Broader Impacts involve the potential for creating increased confidence in theory and models of future climate in the tropics; helping create a new generation of earth scientists willing to bridge the divide between the worlds of modeling and paleoclimate data; support two early career female scientists; and support two doctoral students.

该合作项目的总体目标是开发多尺度模型代理综合，以探索过去气候中数十年ENSO变化与热带太平洋海面温度（SST）梯度之间的关系，并帮助评估模拟过去这些关系的模型技能。即使在没有外部强迫的情况下，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）的活动在几十年到百年的时间尺度上也有显着变化。由于大型厄尔尼诺事件的残余加热导致纬向海温梯度下降，从而影响热带太平洋的平均状态，反过来，ENSO 调制的纬向海温梯度的数十年变化也可以对全球温度趋势产生影响。目前，这些因果联系被认为在模型和观测中受到的约束很差。该项目的优点很高，因为它确定了一个有趣的科学问题（即 ENSO 与平均状态相互作用），这对于增进我们对动力学的理解非常重要ENSO 和年代际气候变率的研究可以受益于使用古气候代理，预期结果有可能有助于解释当今气候中观测到的年代际变率，并选择有可能更加准确的气候模型。未来气候的预测。更广泛的影响包括增强人们对热带地区未来气候理论和模型的信心，帮助培养愿意弥合模拟世界和古气候世界之间鸿沟的新一代地球科学家；数据；支持两名早期职业女性科学家；并支持两名博士生。

项目成果

Surface winds across eastern and midcontinental North America during the Last Glacial Maximum: A new data-model assessment

末次盛冰期北美东部和中部大陆的地面风：新的数据模型评估

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.003
• 发表时间: 2019-09-15
• 期刊: Quaternary Science Reviews
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: J. Conroy;C. Karamperidou;D. Grimley;W. Guenthner
• 通讯作者: W. Guenthner

The Tropical Pacific ENSO–Mean State Relationship in Climate Models over the Last Millennium

热带太平洋 ENSO——过去千年气候模型中的平均国家关系

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0673.1
• 发表时间: 2020-09-01
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: D. A. Wyman;J. L. Conroy;C. Karamperidou
• 通讯作者: C. Karamperidou