RAPID: Can Big Ideas About Resilience Survive the Reality of a Disaster? Built Environment Policy and Recovery After the Marshall Fire

RAPID：关于复原力的伟大想法能否在灾难的现实中幸存下来？

• 批准号: 2220589
• 负责人: Deserai Crow
• 金额: $ 10.04万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Denver-Downtown Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-04-01 至 2023-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2220589&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Big; Ideas; About; Resilience

On December 30, 2021, the climate-enabled and weather-driven Marshall Fire destroyed 1,084 homes and damaged 149 more in the communities of Louisville, Superior, and unincorporated Boulder County, becoming the most destructive fire in Colorado’s history. For these and the growing number of communities facing a new set of risks due to climate change, key questions now emerge: Will these events strengthen communities’ resolve to build climate resilience, or erode public support for such policies in favor of reducing short-term recovery costs? And do community members who live through rebuilding and recovery shift their opinions of and support for resilience policies? This Grant for Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project focuses on local-level regulations that contribute to disaster and climate resilience of communities but that can make development more costly, particularly in the short-term. Prior work has shown that public support and the availability and requirements of external resources and programs shape these local government decisions, but it is unclear whether and to what extent this support changes after a shock such as a disaster. This study seeks to understand how these policy decisions are affected by and affect individual preferences and decisions by collecting perishable data after the Marshall Fire.This study is guided by theories of post-disaster recovery and resilience that describe how local government policies succeed or fail after catastrophic events. The post-disaster planning and policy environment is characterized by time compression, when urban development processes occur within shortened timeframes. Some plans and policies are more compatible with time compression than others; in particular, time compression is challenging for bureaucratic activities like planning and regulation that ordinarily rely on lengthy stakeholder and public engagement processes to help balance short- and long-term policy considerations. Meanwhile, a substantial body of research shows that the process of government-led recovery – how policies are formulated and the nature, quality, and coordination of stakeholder and resident engagement – has significant influence on the breadth and scope of policy changes that local governments are likely to make after a disaster. The focusing events scholarship suggests that this relationship may be especially important after disaster when trust in government, policy preferences, and public involvement in decision making can vary significantly, sometimes being led by technocrats rather than through open consultative processes. Trust in government – influenced by communication from government officials and staff to residents and also by the two-way consultative nature of disaster recovery processes established in a community – is also an important determinant of whether policy changes to bolster resilience are made. What is unclear is whether previously established resilience policies can survive in the time-compressed recovery process after an unanticipated and un-planned-for disaster like the Marshall Fire. To investigate these questions, the research team will (1) administer a longitudinal survey of individuals who lived in three affected jurisdictions at the time of the Marshall Fire to assess their intent to rebuild or relocate, their engagement in the recovery process, their support for resilience policies, and their attitudes towards and trust in government over time. They will also (2) interview local government elected officials, (3) observe disaster recovery meetings, and (4) analyze recovery-related plans and documents during the first year after the catastrophic fire. The research team will analyze these data to seek a clearer understanding of local-level resilience policy preferences and processes during time-compressed disaster recovery.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

2021 年 12 月 30 日，受气候影响和天气驱动的马歇尔大火摧毁了路易斯维尔、苏必利尔和非法人博尔德县社区的 1,084 所房屋，并损坏了 149 所房屋，成为科罗拉多州历史上最具破坏性的火灾。由于气候变化，许多社区面临一系列新的风险，现在出现了关键问题：这些事件是否会增强社区建立气候适应能力的决心，还是会削弱公众对此类政策的支持经历过重建和恢复的社区成员是否会改变对复原力政策的看法和支持？这项快速响应研究补助金 (RAPID) 项目的重点是促进灾害和气候变化的地方法规？社区的复原力，但这可能会使开发成本更高，特别是在短期内，先前的研究表明，公众支持以及外部资源和计划的可用性和要求会影响当地政府的决策，但尚不清楚是否以及在多大程度上影响。这项研究旨在在灾难等冲击之后改变这种支持。通过收集马歇尔火灾后的易腐烂的数据，了解这些政策决策如何受到个人偏好和决策的影响。这项研究以灾后恢复和复原力理论为指导，描述了灾难性事件发生后地方政府政策如何成功或失败。 - 灾难规划和政策环境的特点是时间压缩，当城市发展进程发生在较短的时间范围内时，某些计划和政策比其他计划和政策更适合时间压缩；特别是，时间压缩对于通常的规划和监管等官僚活动来说是一个挑战。依赖冗长同时，大量研究表明，政府主导的复苏过程——政策的制定方式以及利益相关者和居民的性质、质量和协调。参与——对地方政府在灾后可能做出的政策改变的广度和范围具有重大影响。聚焦事件奖学金表明，当对政府、政策偏好和公众的信任时，这种关系在灾后可能尤其重要。参与决策的程度可能差异很大，有时由技术官僚领导对政府的信任，而不是通过公开的协商过程——受到政府官员和工作人员与居民的沟通以及社区中建立的灾难恢复过程的双向协商性质的影响——也是政策是否改变的重要决定因素。目前尚不清楚的是，在发生像马歇尔火灾这样的意外和计划外灾难之后，先前制定的复原政策是否能够在时间紧迫的恢复过程中继续存在。 ）对居住在三个受影响地区的个人进行纵向调查他们还将 (2) 采访当地政府。民选官员，(3) 观察灾难恢复会议，以及 (4) 分析灾难性火灾后第一年的恢复相关计划和文件。研究小组将分析这些数据，以更清楚地了解地方一级的恢复政策偏好。和流程在时间压缩的灾难恢复期间。该奖项反映了通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，NSF 的法定使命被认为值得支持。