Collaborative Research: Cooperation in Multi-Dyadic Civil Conflicts

合作研究：多元民事冲突中的合作

• 批准号: 2215023
• 负责人: Elizabeth Menninga
• 金额: $ 24.68万
• 依托单位: University of Iowa
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-08-01 至 2025-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2215023&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Cooperation; Multi; Dyadic

Civil conflicts impose significant human, economic, and political costs on the countries involved and the broader regions affected. This is particularly true when conflicts involve multiple rebel groups (i.e., multi-dyadic conflicts). This project advances knowledge of multi-dyadic civil conflict dynamics and resolution by evaluating how government-rebel cooperation shapes opportunities for conflict resolution and violence reduction. It contributes to ongoing debates among policymakers and scholars about the dynamics of war and the nature and sustainability of post-conflict peace, speaking to fundamental questions of national security and the prosperity and welfare of countries currently embroiled in civil conflicts around the world. The project provides novel cross-country data compatible with leading civil war datasets, providing a valuable tool to advance cutting-edge research on civil conflict. Moreover, The project also provides training and mentorship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students. Understanding the dynamics of cooperation between adversaries will improve evaluation and forecasting of (in)stability. The PIs integrative approach to cooperation provides insights into when cooperation signals meaningful shifts in conflict dynamics and prospects for long-term peace.The project involves three central aims: (1) to create a comprehensive dataset on cooperation between combatants in multi-dyadic civil wars, (2) to assess the impact of past cooperation on future cooperation and conflict resolution, and (3) to evaluate the impact of past cooperation on future conflict. To achieve aim 1, the PIs create the Cooperation in Civil War: Multi-Dyadic Conflicts Dataset (CCW-MC). CCW-MC covers 12 countries that have experienced the most complex civil conflicts in the post-cold war period. These novel data will capture the full evolution of dyadic cooperation from initial requests to final implementation. Using these data, the PIs test novel theoretical expectations (aims 2 and 3) about how the legacies of past cooperative attempts, both within a government-rebel group dyad and gleaned from observing other dyads in the country, influence subsequent cooperative and conflictual outcomes. Using network analysis, the PIs examine the influence of other active rebel groups on this evolution of cooperation and conflict. By engaging with the multi-dyadic context of these civil wars, the project explicitly takes each dyad's context into consideration when theorizing about and evaluating the role of cooperation. This project addresses a critical gap by examining the evolution of cooperation within and across government-rebel group dyads in multi-dyadic civil conflicts. It will provide novel insights into how cooperation diffuses across dyads, how past attempts at cooperation influence subsequent cooperative efforts, and how cooperation of one form influences subsequent cooperation of another form. The project advances research on conflict management and settlement by treating cooperation as an iterative process that reveals unique information about combatant credibility that cannot be revealed on the battlefield.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

国内冲突给相关国家和更广泛的受影响地区带来了巨大的人力、经济和政治成本。当冲突涉及多个反叛团体（即多二元冲突）时尤其如此。该项目通过评估政府与叛军的合作如何塑造冲突解决和减少暴力的机会，增进对多方民间冲突动态和解决的了解。它促进了政策制定者和学者之间关于战争动态以及冲突后和平的性质和可持续性的持续辩论，探讨了国家安全以及目前卷入世界各地内战的国家的繁荣和福祉的基本问题。该项目提供了与领先的内战数据集兼容的新颖的跨国数据，为推进内战前沿研究提供了宝贵的工具。此外，该项目还为本科生和研究生提供培训和指导机会。了解对手之间合作的动态将改善对稳定性（不稳定）的评估和预测。 PI 的综合合作方法提供了关于合作何时标志着冲突动态和长期和平前景有意义的转变的见解。该项目涉及三个中心目标：(1) 创建关于多方内战中战斗人员之间合作的综合数据集，（2）评估过去的合作对未来合作和冲突解决的影响，（3）评估过去的合作对未来冲突的影响。为了实现目标 1，PI 创建了内战合作：多元冲突数据集 (CCW-MC)。 CCW-MC涵盖了冷战后时期经历过最复杂内战的12个国家。这些新颖的数据将捕捉二元合作从最初请求到最终实施的完整演变过程。利用这些数据，PI 测试了新的理论预期（目标 2 和 3），即过去的合作尝试的遗产（无论是在政府与叛乱团体二人组中还是从观察该国其他二人组中收集到的）如何影响随后的合作和冲突结果。 PI 使用网络分析来研究其他活跃的反叛团体对这种合作与冲突演变的影响。通过研究这些内战的多重背景，该项目在理论化和评估合作的作用时明确考虑了每个双重背景。该项目通过研究多元国内冲突中政府与叛乱团体内部和之间合作的演变，解决了一个关键差距。它将提供关于合作如何在二元体之间扩散、过去的合作尝试如何影响后续合作努力以及一种形式的合作如何影响另一种形式的后续合作的新颖见解。该项目通过将合作视为一个迭代过程来推进冲突管理和解决的研究，该过程揭示了战场上无法透露的关于战斗人员可信度的独特信息。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力评估进行评估，认为值得支持。优点和更广泛的影响审查标准。