OCE-PRF: Investigating coral demographic processes to understand how local conditions interact with climate change to influence coral recovery trajectories

OCE-PRF：调查珊瑚人口统计过程，了解当地条件如何与气候变化相互作用，从而影响珊瑚恢复轨迹

• 批准号: 2205892
• 负责人: Kelly Speare
• 金额: $ 29.84万
• 依托单位: Arizona State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-12-01 至 2024-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2205892&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: OCE; PRF; Investigating; coral; demographic

Coral reefs are among the most imperiled ecosystems, threatened by global climate change and local stressors such as overfishing and pollution. Global climate change threatens coral reefs because warm water events (known as ‘marine heatwaves’) trigger coral bleaching and mass mortality. Local conditions on coral reefs, such as pollution or algal overgrowth that compete with corals, can intensify coral mortality following bleaching events. However, we do not understand whether these local conditions on coral reefs also influence long-term coral recovery after bleaching events. This research addresses this knowledge gap and provides results to inform efficient management actions to lessen the impacts of local stressors on reefs in the face of climate change. Unlike global climate change, local stressors to coral reefs can be managed by individual communities and countries. Much of this work focuses on reefs in Hawaii and provides direct societal benefits to communities in Hawaii. In addition, this project supports an early-career researcher and provides research opportunities and training in quantitative tools and computer programming skills for students from underrepresented groups in STEM. These are fundamental skills for innovative research across scientific disciplines and STEM careers. The degree to which local conditions influence coral recovery after bleaching events is debated, partly because we have a poor understanding of how demographic processes in corals drive recovery or lack thereof. This work uses several existing datasets and a multi-tiered modeling approach to study coral demographic processes to understand how local conditions interact with climate change to influence coral recovery trajectories. This work uses a time series of coral size-frequency data across four regions in the Pacific to assess coral demographic rates (colony growth and recruitment) following regional bleaching events and evaluate the relative importance of those demographic processes in driving recovery dynamics. Data from Hawaiian reefs are used to build a series of structural equation models to evaluate the impact of local stressors (fishing pressure and nutrient pollution) on coral demographic rates and their relationship to reef recovery trajectories. Additionally, the principal investigator plans to use those models as a foundation to forecast how reducing local stressors may or may not enhance coral recovery rates in Hawaii.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

珊瑚礁是最受危险的生态系统之一，受到全球气候变化和当地压力源（例如过度捕捞和污染）的威胁。全球气候变化威胁着珊瑚礁，因为温水事件（称为“海洋热水”）触发珊瑚漂白和质量死亡率。与珊瑚竞争的珊瑚礁的当地条件，例如污染或藻类过度生长，可以在漂白事件后加剧珊瑚死亡率。但是，我们不了解这些对珊瑚礁的当地条件是否也影响漂白事件后的长期珊瑚恢复。这项研究解决了这一知识差距，并提供了结果，以告知有效的管理措施，以减少面对气候变化的礁石对礁石的影响。与全球气候变化不同，当地对珊瑚礁的压力源可以由个别社区和国家来管理。这项工作的大部分都集中在夏威夷的礁石上，并为夏威夷社区提供了直接的社会利益。此外，该项目还支持一名早期研究人员，并为STEM中代表性不足的群体的学生提供定量工具和计算机编程技能的研究机会和培训。这些是跨科学学科和STEM职业的创新研究的基本技能。辩论了在漂白事件后，当地条件影响珊瑚恢复的程度，部分原因是我们对珊瑚驱动恢复或缺乏的人口过程的了解不足。这项工作使用几个现有数据集和一种多层建模方法来研究珊瑚人口统计学过程，以了解当地条件如何与气候变化相互作用以影响珊瑚恢复轨迹。这项工作使用了在太平洋四个地区的珊瑚大小频率数据的时间序列，以评估区域漂白事件后的珊瑚人口统计学率（菌落增长和招聘），并评估这些人口统计学过程在推动恢复动力学方面的相对重要性。来自夏威夷礁的数据用于建立一系列结构性对等模型，以评估当地压力源（捕捞压力和养分污染）对珊瑚人口统计学速率及其与珊瑚礁恢复轨迹的关系。此外，首席研究人员计划使用这些模型作为基础，以预测如何减少当地压力源如何提高夏威夷的珊瑚回收率或可能不会提高夏威夷的珊瑚回收率。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响审查标准来通过评估来诚实地对支持进行评估。