P2C2: Tropical Pacific Influences on Atmospheric Blocking across Climates

P2C2：热带太平洋对跨气候大气阻塞的影响

• 批准号: 2202663
• 负责人: Christina Karamperidou
• 金额: $ 65.49万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2202663&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Tropical; Pacific; Influences; Atmospheric

Atmospheric blocking events are persistent weather patterns, most often high-pressure systems, that divert the mid-latitude jet stream and storms for days to weeks and can be associated with extreme weather such as heat waves, cold spells, droughts, and flooding. There is significant uncertainty surrounding the response of atmospheric blocking and its related extreme events to anthropogenic climate change, including their frequency, intensity, and duration, as well as their modulation by climate variability. The mean climate state and anomalies of the tropical Pacific during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events influence atmospheric blocking; however, these impacts vary depending on the ENSO “flavor” (Eastern or Central Pacific). Thus, part of the uncertainty in blocking projections is due to uncertainties in the projected changes in both the tropical Pacific mean state and ENSO diversity and their potential interactions. This project aims to investigate the relationship between ENSO diversity, atmospheric blocking and extreme events in observations and existing and new targeted model experiments. Via a paleoclimate model-proxy synthesis, the project will potentially enable the assessment of biases and the development of constraints for future projections of atmospheric blocking and associated weather extremes as they are influenced by the tropics.The work focuses on a systematic and hierarchical investigation of the relationship between atmospheric blocking and associated weather extremes that will specifically consider the impact of different states of tropical Pacific mean climate and of ENSO diversity. To this end, the researchers will relate atmospheric blocking characteristics and extreme event frequency to the state of the tropical Pacific at multiple time scales (multidecadal, interannual) and, diagnose the underlying mechanisms via a synthesis of diagnostic analysis of GCM present-day and past climate experiments, new high-resolution (~15km) model experiments designed to isolate the role of the tropical Pacific, statistical modeling of weather extremes, and paleoclimate proxy records. This investigation will offer new insights into the impact of the tropics on midlatitude extreme events and allow for a quantitative synthesis of paleoclimate proxies and models to assess model skill in representing these relationships. The ultimate goal is to devise metrics that reduce model uncertainty in simulations of externally-forced changes in blocking, in other words calculate constraints for blocking projections based on simulation skill of tropical Pacific mean state and diversity. The potential broader impacts include a comprehensive framework for integration, validation and interpretation of past climate and modern observations to evaluate future climate projections at regional and global scales. This project has the potential to improve the prediction of extreme weather and assessment of risk associated with the intersection of climate change and variability, atmospheric blocking, and extreme events, and develops knowledge and resources that are increasingly being used by academic institutions, government agencies, and private-sector R&D companies, including insurance companies, banks, and consulting firms.The research will provide scientific training for graduate and undergraduate students on new technologies on weather and climate risk analysis in Title III - Asian American and Native American Pacific Islander-Serving Institutions (AANAPI). Additionally, a new online outreach module will be developed to be incorporated in the biennial SOEST Open House Activities for K-12 visitors and the general public (~10-minute activities), designed to raise awareness and understanding of the distinct impacts of ENSO flavors. This new module will be designed as an ENSO impacts game, where the players will place a Sea Surface Temperature anomaly corresponding to different ENSO flavors, which will change the position of the jet stream on the board. They will then be asked to guess the ENSO impacts in multiple locations, including Hawaii (wet/dry, warm/cold) as they relate to changes in the jet stream, and will be assigned scores based on hits and misses. The module will be shared publicly to be used by educators across the country.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

大气阻塞事件是模式，通常通常是高压系统，将AYS的中纬度射流strm转移到几周的情况下可能与极端天气（例如热浪）相关，这是显着的不确定性，大气阻塞的响应和相关的外推事件对人为气候在厄尔尼诺（Elniño）振荡（ENSO）事件中改变的继承人会影响太平洋的大气障碍。 。工作重点是相关的极端天气，这些天气将特别考虑热带太平洋平均气候和ENSO多样性的影响。量表（多年阶段，年届），并通过综合GCM的诊断和过去的气候经验，旨在隔离热带太平洋，天气极端统计模型的作用，以及过去的气候经验的GCM诊断来诊断基本机制。古气候的代理记录将在中纬度事件上提供新的热带，并允许育种综合核心氛围代理评估模型，代表了这些关系中的模拟。热带太平洋的模拟技巧和多样性的范围都有更广泛的影响，包括整合现代观察的框架，以评估该项目的未来气候预测。大气阻塞和极端事件越来越多地被学术机构以及私营部门研发公司（包括保险公司），银行业。双年展的K-12访客和公众（〜10分钟的活动），在美国和美洲太平洋岛民服务III的风险分析。 E。该喷气流将根据命中和错过该模块的分配分数，该奖项将由该奖项的教育工作者使用反映NSF'SF'Stutory Mission，并通过使用该基金会的知识分子和更广泛的评估，并获得了支持的人，并获得了支持。影响审查标准。

项目成果

The Impacts of El Niño Diversity on Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking

厄尔尼诺现象多样性对北半球大气阻塞的影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2023gl104284
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: McKenna, Madeline;Karamperidou, Christina
• 通讯作者: Karamperidou, Christina