P2C2: High-resolution dynamical and statistical downscaling of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response in proxy-critical locations across the tropical Pacific

P2C2：热带太平洋代理关键地点厄尔尼诺南方涛动 (ENSO) 响应的高分辨率动态和统计降尺度

• 批准号: 1902970
• 负责人: Christina Karamperidou
• 金额: $ 53.17万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1902970&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; resolution; dynamical; statistical; downscaling

This project aims to use an atmosphere-only mesoscale weather forecasting model (WRF) to downscale general circulation model (GCM) outputs in order to investigate how local and regional climate in the tropical Pacific region respond to different patterns (or flavors) of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the last Glacial maximum to present. The downscaled GCM outputs will then be compared to ENSO proxy-records where they exist (Galapagos, eastern Pacific coasts, Line Islands and Palau) in order to quantitatively assess the diversity of ENSO impacts in these locations. This approach considers how the unique terrain and the local aspect of weather and climate modulate the complexity of ENSO-induced regional atmospheric circulation. The ultimate goal will be a better interpretation of ENSO proxy records and therefore a deeper understanding of ENSO variability through model-data comparison.The potential Broader Impacts include: 1) a suite of downscaled climate variables with state-of-the-art models (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, temperature); 2) a database for expected range of recorded ENSO events at several proxy-record locations and climates; 3) a paleoclimate data-model comparison of ENSO at similar spatial scales (downscaled model outputs). These products will be useful for the paleoclimate communities, and for weather forecasting and risk prediction-associated with ENSO events- communities. The researcher will establish a collaboration with the national meteorology and hydrology service in Peru and develop an online course on modeling and statistics of climate.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目旨在使用仅大气中的中尺度天气预测模型（WRF）来降级一般循环模型（GCM）输出，以研究热带太平洋地区的本地和地区气候如何响应El Nino的不同模式（或口味）南部振荡（ENSO）从最后的冰川最大值到现在。然后，将将缩小的GCM输出与ENSO代理记录进行比较（加拉帕戈斯群岛，东太平洋海岸，线岛和帕劳），以定量评估这些位置中ENSO影响的多样性。这种方法考虑了独特的地形和天气和气候的局部方面如何调节ENSO引起的区域大气循环的复杂性。最终目标将是对ENSO代理记录的更好解释，因此通过模型数据比较对ENSO变异性有更深入的了解。潜在的广泛影响包括：1）一套具有最先进模型的缩小气候变量（例如，降水，土壤水分，温度）； 2）在几个代理记录和气候下的预期记录ENSO事件范围的数据库； 3）在相似的空间尺度（缩放模型输出）下ENSO的古气候数据模型比较。 这些产品将对古气候社区以及与ENSO事件社区相关的天气预报和风险预测有用。研究人员将与秘鲁的国家气象和水文学服务建立合作，并开发有关气候建模和统计数据的在线课程。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子和更广泛影响的评估来支持的。审查标准。

项目成果

La Niña Came to Eden

拉尼娜来到伊甸园

• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0343.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8
• 作者: McPhaden, Michael J.;Karamperidou, Christina
• 通讯作者: Karamperidou, Christina

Competing Effects of Eastern and Central‐Western Pacific Winds in the Evolution of the 2017 Extreme Coastal El Niño

东部和中部-西太平洋风对 2017 年极端沿海厄尔尼诺现象演变的竞争影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2022gl098859
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Zhao, Sen;Karamperidou, Christina
• 通讯作者: Karamperidou, Christina