Collaborative Research: Generation of Rock Damage and Localization of Seismicity Before Large Earthquakes

合作研究：大地震前岩石损伤的产生与地震活动的定位

基本信息

批准号：
2122168
负责人：
Yehuda Ben-Zion
金额：
$ 27.58万
依托单位：
University of Southern California
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-09-01 至 2024-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2122168&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Generation Rock Damage

项目摘要

How large earthquakes are generated, and how to forecast them, remain fundamental unsolved scientific questions. They have strong implications for human societies. Large earthquakes can result in loss of life, devastating destruction, and trigger additional hazards such as tsunamis, fires, and landslides. This project aims to improve the understanding of earthquake dynamics and ability to forecast large events. Its key aspect is to track the progressive localization of seismic deformation preceding the earthquake rupture. With this aim, the researchers combine novel statistical techniques with high-resolution earthquake catalogs from different tectonic environments. They account for data from fracturing experiments and physical modeling of deformation localization. The project also provides support and training for two graduate students. Its outcomes contribute to improve earthquake hazard assessment. The investigations work to develop a quantitative operational framework for tracking the preparation processes of large earthquakes. This is done by following the progressive evolution of deformation from distributed failures in a volume to localized shear zones culminating in generation of large earthquakes. The research considers deformation in entire volumes rather than on pre-existing faults or sets of faults. The analysis is associated with uniform regional analysis and interpretation of thousands of earthquake clusters on different space-time-energy scales, without retrospective selection of the analyzed zones. The project develops, tests, and implements an integrated multi-signal procedure synthesizing different seismic observations that may be used to estimate the approaching time of large earthquakes. The developed tools and results can have significant impact on understanding of seismicity and analysis of seismic hazard in active tectonic environments. The research can inform and impact additional observational, experimental, and theoretical studies on earthquake physics and seismic hazard.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

大地震是如何产生的以及如何预测它们仍然是尚未解决的基本科学问题。它们对人类社会有着深远的影响。大地震可能导致人员伤亡、毁灭性破坏，并引发海啸、火灾和山体滑坡等额外灾害。该项目旨在提高对地震动力学的理解和预测大型事件的能力。其关键方面是跟踪地震破裂前地震变形的渐进定位。为了实现这一目标，研究人员将新颖的统计技术与来自不同构造环境的高分辨率地震目录相结合。他们解释了来自压裂实验和变形局部物理建模的数据。该项目还为两名研究生提供支持和培训。其成果有助于改进地震灾害评估。这些调查致力于开发一个量化的操作框架来跟踪大地震的准备过程。这是通过跟踪变形从体积中的分布式破坏到局部剪切带最终产生大地震的逐步演变来完成的。该研究考虑的是整个体积的变形，而不是预先存在的断层或断层组的变形。该分析与不同时空能量尺度上数千个地震群的统一区域分析和解释相关，无需回顾性选择分析区域。该项目开发、测试和实施了一个综合多信号程序，综合了不同的地震观测结果，可用于估计大地震的临近时间。开发的工具和结果可以对活动构造环境中地震活动的理解和地震灾害分析产生重大影响。该研究可以为地震物理和地震灾害的其他观测、实验和理论研究提供信息并产生影响。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。