Southern California Earthquake Center: Research Program in Earthquake System Science, 2017-2022

南加州地震中心：地震系统科学研究计划，2017-2022

• 批准号: 1600087
• 负责人: Yehuda Ben-Zion
• 金额: $ 1492.36万
• 依托单位: University of Southern California
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Cooperative Agreement
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-05-01 至 2023-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1600087&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Southern; California; Earthquake; Center; Research

This cooperative agreement funds the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) for the 5-year period from 1 Feb 2017 to 31 Jan 2022 (SCEC5). The Center is a large consortium of institutions with a national, and increasingly worldwide, distribution. Currently, over 1000 earthquake professionals are participating in SCEC projects. This research program is investigator-driven and supports core research and education in seismology, tectonic geodesy, earthquake geology, and computational science. The SCEC community advances earthquake system science by gathering information from seismic and geodetic sensors, geologic field observations, and laboratory experiments; synthesizing knowledge of earthquake phenomena through system-level, physics-based modeling; and communicating understanding of seismic hazards to reduce earthquake risk and promote community resilience. Southern California is data-rich and, with an urbanized population exceeding 20 million, comprises the lion's share of national earthquake risk. Recent research has posed crucial questions about the current earthquake hazard of the San Andre-as fault system. The strategic framework for the SCEC5 Science Plan has been cast in the form of five basic questions of earthquake science: (1) How are faults loaded on different temporal and spatial scales? (2) What is the role of off-fault inelastic deformation on strain accumulation, dynamic rupture, and radiated seismic energy? (3) How do the evolving structure, composition and physical properties of fault zones and surrounding rock affect shear resistance to seismic and aseismic slip? (4) How do strong ground motions depend on the complexities and nonlinearities of dynamic earthquake systems? (5) In what ways can system-specific studies enhance the general understanding of earthquake predictability? These questions cover the key issues driving earthquake research in California, and they provide a basis for gauging the intellectual merit of proposed SCEC5 research activities. SCEC's long-range science vision is to develop dynamical models of earthquake processes that are comprehensive, integrative, verified, predictive, and validated against observations. The science goal of the SCEC5 core program is to provide new concepts that can improve the predictability of the earth-quake system models, new data for testing the models, and a better understanding of model uncertain-ties. SCEC validation efforts tightly couple basic earthquake research to the practical needs of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, operational earthquake forecasting, earthquake early warning, and rapid earthquake response. Moreover, the risk-reduction problem?which requires actions motivated by useful information?strongly couples SCEC science to earthquake engineering. SCEC collaborations with engineering organizations are directed towards end-to-end, physics-based modeling capabilities that span system processes from ?ruptures-to-rafters.? SCEC connects to the social sciences through its mission to convey authoritative information to stakeholders in ways that result in lowered risk and enhanced resilience. SCEC's vision is to engage end-users and the public at large in on-going, community-centric conversations about how to manage particular risks by taking specific actions. The SCEC Communication, Education, and Outreach (CEO) program will promote this dialog on many levels and continue to build networks of organizational partners that can act in concert to prepare millions of people of all ages and socioeconomic levels for inevitable earthquake disasters.

该合作协议为南加州地震中心 (SCEC) 提供为期 5 年的资助，期限为 2017 年 2 月 1 日至 2022 年 1 月 31 日 (SCEC5)。该中心是一个大型机构联盟，其分布遍及全国，并日益遍及全球。目前，超过1000名地震专业人士正在参与SCEC项目。该研究项目由研究者驱动，支持地震学、构造大地测量学、地震地质学和计算科学方面的核心研究和教育。 SCEC 社区通过从地震和大地测量传感器、地质现场观测和实验室实验收集信息来推进地震系统科学；通过系统级、基于物理的建模综合地震现象的知识；传达对地震危害的理解，以减少地震风险并提高社区的复原力。南加州数据丰富，城市化人口超过 2000 万，占全国地震风险的最大部分。最近的研究对圣安德烈断层系统当前的地震危险提出了关键问题。 SCEC5科学计划的战略框架以地震科学的五个基本问题的形式提出：（1）断层如何在不同的时空尺度上承受荷载？ (2) 断层外非弹性变形对应变积累、动态破裂和辐射地震能量有何作用？ (3) 断裂带和围岩的演化结构、成分和物理性质如何影响抗震和地震滑移的抗剪能力？ (4) 强地震动如何取决于动态地震系统的复杂性和非线性？ (5)特定系统的研究可以通过哪些方式增强对地震可预测性的总体理解？这些问题涵盖了推动加州地震研究的关键问题，并为衡量拟议的 SCEC5 研究活动的智力价值提供了基础。 SCEC 的长期科学愿景是开发全面、综合、经过验证、预测和观测验证的地震过程动力学模型。 SCEC5核心计划的科学目标是提供可以提高地震系统模型可预测性的新概念、用于测试模型的新数据以及更好地理解模型不确定性。 SCEC 验证工作将基础地震研究与概率地震灾害分析、业务地震预报、地震预警和快速地震响应的实际需求紧密结合起来。此外，风险降低问题——需要由有用信息推动的行动——将 SCEC 科学与地震工程紧密结合在一起。 SCEC 与工程组织的合作旨在实现端到端、基于物理的建模功能，涵盖从“断裂到椽子”的系统过程。 SCEC 的使命是与社会科学建立联系，以降低风险和增强复原力的方式向利益相关者传达权威信息。 SCEC 的愿景是让最终用户和广大公众参与持续的、以社区为中心的对话，讨论如何通过采取具体行动来管理特定风险。 SCEC 沟通、教育和外展 (CEO) 计划将在多个层面上促进这种对话，并继续建立组织合作伙伴网络，这些合作伙伴可以齐心协力，为数以百万计的各个年龄段和社会经济水平的人们做好准备，应对不可避免的地震灾害。