ERI: An Integrative Risk Quantification and Management Framework to Enhance the Resiliency of Surface Transportation Systems Under Disruptive Precipitation

ERI：综合风险量化和管理框架，以增强地面交通系统在破坏性降水下的弹性

• 批准号: 2138549
• 负责人: Nafiseh Ghorbani Renani
• 金额: $ 20万
• 依托单位: Stevens Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2024-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2138549&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: ERI; Integrative; Risk; Quantification; Management

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).Flood events are one of the most common natural disasters affecting the US. Recurring nuisance precipitation and less severe flood events affect urban environments with much higher frequency when compared to more severe events. More frequent events pose higher safety risks to public transit users, pedestrians, and drivers and cause challenges to accessing transportation infrastructure. By focusing on the less severe flood events and heavy precipitation, this Engineering Research Initiation (ERI) project provides a scalable framework that will holistically capture the impacts of a city's characteristics, infrastructures' attributes, human travel behaviors, and disruptive events' patterns on transportation resilience. The researched framework will enhance the safety and efficiency of the US surface transportation system, resulting in strong societal and economic impacts. The goal of this project is to scientifically understand surface transportation network’s risks under disruptive precipitation events and effectively communicate such risks. Further, the researched framework will provide an educational tool to teach quantitative decision-making and risk analysis and assist with computationally efficient transportation operation policy learning. Focusing on the flood-prone area of Hoboken, New Jersey, this multi-element modeling approach will promote a pragmatic decision-making platform supporting the interactions between humans and the built environment. The project harnesses knowledge from resiliency planning, risk analysis and communication, survey design, transportation engineering, graph theory and network modeling, and reinforcement learning to transform the simplified assumptions utilized in the existing transportation resiliency modeling efforts. The project will estimate and validate the local and system-wide impacts of flooding on mobility and accessibility. Upon quantifying the effects of disruptive precipitation on mobility and accessibility, and predicting road flood susceptibility, driver behavior and disruptive patterns will be evaluated and simulated during and after disruptions through scenario generation. The objective is to provide a framework that improves operational decision-making through prioritization and risk communication. The resulting framework will encompass all elements leading to disruption by precipitation in flood-prone areas and consequential travel patterns causing further hindrance and safety hazards to travel networks.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项是根据2021年《美国救援计划法》的全部或部分资助的（公共法117-2）。事件是影响美国的最常见的自然灾害之一。与更严重的事件相比，反复出现的滋扰降水和较少的洪水事件会影响频率更高的城市环境。更频繁的事件对公共交通使用者，行人和驾驶员构成更高的安全风险，并为进入运输基础设施带来挑战。通过专注于不太严重的洪水事件和繁重的降水，该工程研究启动（ERI）项目提供了一个可扩展的框架，可以从整体上捕获城市特征，基础设施的属性，人类旅行行为以及破坏性事件对运输弹性的影响。研究的框架将提高美国地表运输系统的安全性和效率，从而产生强烈的社会和经济影响。该项目的目的是科学地了解在破坏性精确事件下的地面运输网络的风险，并有效地传达此类风险。此外，研究的框架将提供一种教育工具来教授定量决策和风险分析，并协助计算高效的运输运营政策学习。这种多元元素建模方法着眼于新泽西州霍博肯（Hoboken）的洪水领域，将促进一个务实的决策平台，以支持人类与建筑环境之间的相互作用。该项目从弹性计划，风险分析和沟通，调查设计，运输工程，图形论和网络建模以及强化学习中利用知识来改变现有的运输弹性建模工作中使用的简化假设。该项目将估计并验证洪水对移动性和可及性的局部和系统范围影响。通过量化破坏性精度对移动性和可及性的影响，并预测道路洪水易感性，驾驶员行为和破坏性模式将在各种情况下的破坏过程中进行评估和模拟。目的是提供一个通过优先级和风险交流来改善运营决策的框架。最终的框架将涵盖所有元素，从而导致洪水易受洪水泛滥的区域的精确性和相应的旅行模式，从而导致进一步的障碍和安全性旅行网络的安全危害。这项奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的审查标准来评估的支持。