AGS-PRF: Hydroclimate Response of the Southwestern United States (US) to Past and Future Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Weakening

AGS-PRF：美国西南部 (US) 对过去和未来大西洋经向翻转环流 (AMOC) 减弱的水文气候响应

基本信息

批准号：
2131749
负责人：
Sophia Macarewich
金额：
$ 19万
依托单位：
Macarewich, Sophia Isabel
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Fellowship Award
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2022-02-01 至 2022-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2131749&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
AGS PRF Hydroclimate Response Southwestern

项目摘要

The U.S. Southwest is a drought-prone region that hosts several growing population centers, which are already characterized by marginal water availability. Most models predict that climate change will exacerbate water scarcity in the region but simulating hydroclimate dynamics in the Southwest remains a challenge for coarse-resolution global climate models due to the complex regional topography. This project will address this challenge through the simulations of the rainfall variability and associated atmospheric dynamics in the Southwest during a climate extreme period (between 18 to 14.7 thousand years before present). In addition, a second set of model simulations will investigate the end-twentieth century rainfall response in the Southwest under projected scenarios of Atlantic Meridional Overturning weakening, a major ocean current system. This will be accomplished using a novel multi-scale Earth system modeling approach that will resolve both fine-scale dynamical features over complex regional terrain and interactions with large-scale features of the climate system. These modeling components will (1) provide an opportunity to identify the atmosphere’s response to past climate changes and for improved understanding of the dynamical mechanisms involved in present and future rainfall changes in the region; and will (2) advance the understanding of the future impacts of a projected decline in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on hydroclimate in the U.S. Southwest. The addition of water isotope tracers in the modeling framework will permit investigation of AMOC teleconnections with Southwest hydroclimate through direct comparisons with regional hydroclimate proxies (e.g., speleothems). Collectively, the modeling components explore a past and a future interval of climate change to better understand the dynamical mechanisms involved in present and future precipitation changes in the region.The potential Broader Impacts include a greater understanding of the role of Atlantic Meridional Overturning in regional hydroclimate by investigating linkages between AMOC and rainfall in past and future climates. The research and outreach activities will provide scientific and professional development for an early career scientist. This includes scientific collaborations and networking, mentoring and science communication with water stakeholders in the region. The outreach activities will facilitate open discussions between scientists and Southwest water managers and stakeholders to ensure that research holds value beyond academic circles. Additionally, the PI will engage and facilitate the discussions on mental health in Geosciences and STEM through graduate seminars and lab-meetings.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

美国西南部是一个容易发生干旱的地区，拥有数个不断增长的人口中心，这些中心已经以边缘水的供应为特征。大多数模型预测，气候变化会加剧该地区的水稀缺性，但是由于复杂的区域地形，对西南地区的氢化气候动力学进行模拟仍然是粗分辨率全球气候模型的挑战。该项目将通过模拟气候极端时期的降雨可变性和相关大气动态（在目前的18至147千年之间）来应对这一挑战。此外，第二组模型模拟将调查西南二十世纪末的降雨反应，这是大西洋子午线推翻弱化的预计场景，这是一个主要的海洋电流系统。这将使用一种新型的多尺度接地系统建模方法来完成，该方法将在复杂的区域地形上解决优质的动力学特征，并与气候系统的大规模特征进行交互。这些建模组件（1）将提供一个机会，以确定大气对过去气候变化的反应，并改善对该地区当前和未来降雨变化所涉及的动态机制的理解；并将（2）促进对预计大西洋子午线推翻循环（AMOC）对美国西南氢化气候的预计下降的未来影响的理解。在建模框架中添加水同位素示踪剂将允许通过与区域氢气候代理（例如，Spleothems）直接比较西南氢化气候的AMOC远程连接。总的来说，建模组件探索了气候变化的过去和未来间隔，以更好地了解该地区当前和未来的降水变化所涉及的动态机制。潜在的广泛影响包括对大西洋子午线在过去和未来的降雨中的联系和降雨之间的联系，对大西洋地区氢化气候中大西洋的子午线推翻的作用有了更大的了解。研究和外展活动将为早期职业科学家提供科学和专业发展。这包括与该地区水利益相关者的科学合作以及网络，心理和科学沟通。外展活动将促进科学家与西南水管理者和利益相关者之间的公开讨论，以确保研究具有超出学术界的价值。此外，PI将通过研究生下水道和实验室会参与并促进有关地球科学的心理健康的讨论。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过评估该基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响来审查标准。