Collaborative Research: A Workshop on Pre-emergence and the Predictions of Rare Events in Multiscale, Complex, Dynamical Systems

协作研究：多尺度、复杂、动态系统中出现前和罕见事件的预测研讨会

• 批准号: 2114393
• 负责人: Ioannis Paschalidis
• 金额: $ 1万
• 依托单位: Trustees of Boston University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-02-01 至 2022-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2114393&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Workshop; Pre; emergence

Although pandemics have threatened human civilization since ancient times, how to predict and prevent them remains one of the most pressing challenges, calling out for innovative insights and practices. Pandemics emerge through incidental ‘perfect storms’: molecular changes in pathogens, gradual trends in climate, subtle shifts in ecological interactions among potential hosts, and even individual behavioral decisions by people, all colluding to make up the difference between an interesting but rare new variant of a known disease and an existential worldwide crisis. Being able to predict the emergence of pandemic threats, therefore, requires a fully integrated, multidisciplinary approach, able to consider the complexity of these realms across scales of interaction to predict and, ideally, prevent. This workshop will include experts from otherwise disparate scholarly communities in biology, mathematics, engineering, computer science, ecology and social science to come together and discuss how to integrate the approaches taken by each community into a more effective, unified science of pandemic prediction. Discussions will leverage recently developed advances in disease ecology, computational biology and biophysics, information and network science, sensing, and statistics to analyze pertinent data, enabling inference of difficult-to-measure information and the integration of real-time observation, computation, and experimentation. The workshop aims at formulating a new science base on pandemic preparedness, identifying scientific gaps that need to be addressed, and discussing how to design solutions to fill those gaps in ways that anticipate multidisciplinary use. Participants will consider how to construct integrative and multidisciplinary frameworks to enable better insights into the fundamental processes of pandemic emergence and translate those insights into practical tools for preventing and/or mitigating pandemic threats. It is anticipated that the workshop will result into concrete recommendations for how the critical and diverse relevant fields can move forward together to increase global safety, guarding against future pandemics.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

尽管自古以来大流行者威胁着人类文明，但如何预测和防止它们仍然是最紧迫的挑战之一，呼吁进行创新的见解和实践。大流行者通过偶然的“完美风暴”出现：病原体的分子变化，气候的年级趋势，潜在宿主之间的生态相互作用的细微转变，甚至是人们的个人行为决定，都勾结出来，以弥补已知疾病的有趣但罕见的新变体之间的差异和现有的全球危机。因此，能够预测大流行威胁的出现需要一种完全整合的多学科方法，能够考虑这些领域跨互动范围的复杂性，以预测并理想地预防。该研讨会将包括来自其他不同科学社区的专家生物学，数学，工程，计算机科学，生态学和社会科学，并讨论如何将每个社区采取的方法整合到一个更有效，更有效的大流行预测科学中。讨论将利用最近在疾病生态学，计算生物学和生物物理学，信息和网络科学，敏感性和统计数据方面发展的进展，以分析相关数据，从而推断难以估量的信息以及实时观察，计算和实验的整合。该研讨会的目的是为大流行准备，确定需要解决的科学差距，并讨论如何以预期多学科使用的方式填补这些空白，以确定需要解决的科学差距，并旨在提出一个新的科学基础。参与者将考虑如何构建综合和多学科框架，以更好地了解大流行出现的基本过程，并将这些见解转化为预防和/或减轻大流行威胁的实用工具。预计该研讨会将为临界和不同领域如何共同发展以提高全球安全性，防止未来的大流派，从而提出具体的建议。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的审查标准来评估通过评估而被认为是宝贵的。

项目成果

Personalized predictive models for symptomatic COVID-19 patients using basic preconditions: Hospitalizations, mortality, and the need for an ICU or ventilator

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2020.104258
• 发表时间: 2020-10-01
• 期刊: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INFORMATICS
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Wollenstein-Betech, Salomon;Cassandras, Christos G.;Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch
• 通讯作者: Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch