Collaborative Research: A Workshop on Pre-emergence and the Predictions of Rare Events in Multiscale, Complex, Dynamical Systems

协作研究：多尺度、复杂、动态系统中出现前和罕见事件的预测研讨会

• 批准号: 2114393
• 负责人: Ioannis Paschalidis
• 金额: $ 1万
• 依托单位: Trustees of Boston University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-02-01 至 2022-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2114393&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Workshop; Pre; emergence

Although pandemics have threatened human civilization since ancient times, how to predict and prevent them remains one of the most pressing challenges, calling out for innovative insights and practices. Pandemics emerge through incidental ‘perfect storms’: molecular changes in pathogens, gradual trends in climate, subtle shifts in ecological interactions among potential hosts, and even individual behavioral decisions by people, all colluding to make up the difference between an interesting but rare new variant of a known disease and an existential worldwide crisis. Being able to predict the emergence of pandemic threats, therefore, requires a fully integrated, multidisciplinary approach, able to consider the complexity of these realms across scales of interaction to predict and, ideally, prevent. This workshop will include experts from otherwise disparate scholarly communities in biology, mathematics, engineering, computer science, ecology and social science to come together and discuss how to integrate the approaches taken by each community into a more effective, unified science of pandemic prediction. Discussions will leverage recently developed advances in disease ecology, computational biology and biophysics, information and network science, sensing, and statistics to analyze pertinent data, enabling inference of difficult-to-measure information and the integration of real-time observation, computation, and experimentation. The workshop aims at formulating a new science base on pandemic preparedness, identifying scientific gaps that need to be addressed, and discussing how to design solutions to fill those gaps in ways that anticipate multidisciplinary use. Participants will consider how to construct integrative and multidisciplinary frameworks to enable better insights into the fundamental processes of pandemic emergence and translate those insights into practical tools for preventing and/or mitigating pandemic threats. It is anticipated that the workshop will result into concrete recommendations for how the critical and diverse relevant fields can move forward together to increase global safety, guarding against future pandemics.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

尽管流行病自古以来就威胁着人类文明，但如何预测和预防它们仍然是最紧迫的挑战之一，需要创新的见解和实践。流行病是通过偶然的“完美风暴”出现的：病原体的分子变化、气候的逐渐趋势。潜在宿主之间生态相互作用的微妙变化，甚至人们的个人行为决定，所有这些都共同弥补了已知疾病的有趣但罕见的新变种与全球范围内存在的危机之间的差异。因此，威胁需要充分综合的、多学科的方法，能够考虑这些领域的复杂性，并在理想情况下进行预防。本研讨会将包括来自生物学、数学、工程学、计算机科学、生态学和社会科学领域不同学术界的专家。聚集在一起讨论如何将每个社区采取的方法整合到更有效、统一的流行病预测科学中。讨论将利用疾病生态学、计算生物学和生物物理学、信息和网络科学、传感和统计学方面的最新进展进行分析。相关数据，能够推断难以测量的信息，并将实时观察、计算和实验结合起来，研讨会旨在制定有关大流行病防范的新科学基础，确定需要解决的科学差距，并讨论如何设计。参与者将考虑如何构建综合性和多学科框架，以更好地了解大流行出现的基本过程，并将这些见解转化为预防和/或减轻大流行威胁的实用工具。预计研讨会将为关键和不同的相关领域如何共同推进以提高全球安全、防范未来流行病提出具体建议。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过利用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响进行评估，被认为值得支持审查标准。

项目成果

Personalized predictive models for symptomatic COVID-19 patients using basic preconditions: Hospitalizations, mortality, and the need for an ICU or ventilator

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2020.104258
• 发表时间: 2020-10-01
• 期刊: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MEDICAL INFORMATICS
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Wollenstein-Betech, Salomon;Cassandras, Christos G.;Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch
• 通讯作者: Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch