PREVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Predicting Hurricane Risk Along the United States East Coast in a Changing Climate

预防轨道 2：合作研究：预测气候变化中美国东海岸的飓风风险

基本信息

批准号：
1854980
负责人：
Jeffrey Donnelly
金额：
$ 57.84万
依托单位：
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2019-06-01 至 2024-05-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1854980&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
PREVENTS Track Collaborative Research Predicting

项目摘要

Changes to hurricane activity in the coming century has the potential to catastrophically impact the entire economic landscape of American coastal region. Unfortunately, significant uncertainty in projections of future hurricane risk exist because the climatic drivers of changes in hurricane activity is poorly known. This is exacerbated by the exceedingly short instrumental record of hurricane occurrence in the western Atlantic, which makes diagnosing the climatic controls on hurricane activity difficult. This project utilizes historical and long-term geological reconstructions of hurricane activity in the western North Atlantic, which extends our knowledge of hurricane occurrence back centuries and even millennia. This approach allows assessment of how the risk posed by hurricanes along the east coast of the United States has changed. Further, the researchers will use state of the art numerical models to both diagnose the key climatic conditions that contribute to changes in hurricane activity and to provide improved projections of future hurricane risk. Many of the lessons learned from this work will be used by the broader scientific community and planners and decision-makers to improve our preparedness and resilience to possible future changes in hurricane risk. The results will inform risk modeling, which in turn informs the insurance and re-insurance industries, as well as efforts to mitigate tropical cyclone hazards at the city, state and federal levels. Finally, the project will provide the opportunity to train and educate the next generation of scientists with the engagement of graduate, undergraduate and high school students.This study takes an integrated research approach that addresses two broad questions: 1) How is the risk of floods changing due to (a) storm surge and (b) rainfall? 2) How do processes like changes in ocean circulations (e.g., Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) and the response to low latitude volcanic eruptions modulate hurricane activity, both generally and specifically for US landfalling storms? Reconstruction of past changes in hurricane landfalls along the Northeast US, Florida east coast, and northwestern Gulf of Mexico will be coupled with hydrodynamic modeling of tropical cyclone related storm surges and waves and downscaled estimates of TC-related rainfall. This approach will allow determination of changes in risk of TC-induced flooding over the last millennium. This will form the baseline for examining future risk and for examining critical forcing mechanisms that may significantly alter future regional landfall probabilities. Downscaling the latest (CMIP6) global model output coupled with hydrodynamic modeling of surge and waves will be used to assess current and future risk of TC-induced flooding. In addition, we will explore the potential influence of volcanic aerosols that penetrate the stratosphere on TC activity. Further, this study plans to examine the influence of changes in ocean circulation on TCs, which affects the probability of intense hurricane landfalls by altering the amount of ocean heat content available to TCs close to landfall.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

下个世纪飓风活动的变化有可能对美国沿海地区的整个经济格局产生灾难性影响。不幸的是，由于对飓风活动变化的气候驱动因素知之甚少，因此对未来飓风风险的预测存在很大的不确定性。西大西洋飓风发生的仪器记录极短，加剧了这种情况，这使得诊断飓风活动的气候控制变得困难。该项目利用北大西洋西部飓风活动的历史和长期地质重建，将我们对飓风发生的了解延伸到几个世纪甚至几千年前。这种方法可以评估美国东海岸飓风造成的风险如何变化。此外，研究人员将使用最先进的数值模型来诊断导致飓风活动变化的关键气候条件，并提供对未来飓风风险的改进预测。从这项工作中汲取的许多经验教训将被更广泛的科学界以及规划者和决策者利用，以提高我们对未来可能发生的飓风风险变化的准备和抵御能力。结果将为风险建模提供信息，进而为保险和再保险行业以及城市、州和联邦各级减轻热带气旋危害的努力提供信息。最后，该项目将提供机会，通过研究生、本科生和高中生的参与，培训和教育下一代科学家。这项研究采用综合研究方法，解决了两个广泛的问题：1）洪水风险如何由于 (a) 风暴潮和 (b) 降雨而发生变化？ 2) 海洋环流的变化（例如，大西洋经向翻转环流）和对低纬度火山喷发的响应等过程如何调节飓风活动，无论是一般还是具体针对美国登陆风暴？重建美国东北部、佛罗里达州东海岸和墨西哥湾西北部飓风登陆的过去变化，将与热带气旋相关的风暴潮和波浪的水动力模型以及与TC相关的降雨量的缩小估计相结合。这种方法将能够确定过去千年中由热带气旋引起的洪水风险的变化。这将构成检查未来风险和检查可能显着改变未来区域登陆概率的关键强迫机制的基线。最新 (CMIP6) 全球模型输出的降尺度与浪涌和波浪的水动力模型相结合，将用于评估当前和未来由 TC 引发的洪水风险。此外，我们还将探讨穿透平流层的火山气溶胶对热带气旋活动的潜在影响。此外，这项研究计划研究海洋环流变化对热带气旋的影响，这种影响通过改变接近登陆的热带气旋可用的海洋热含量来影响强烈飓风登陆的可能性。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并被视为值得通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。