CAREER: Understanding the Variability, Predictability and Changes of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the North Atlantic: From Basin to Sub-basin Scales

职业：了解北大西洋热带气旋发生频率的变异性、可预测性和变化：从盆地到次盆地尺度

• 批准号: 2047721
• 负责人: Wei Mei
• 金额: $ 53.98万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-07-15 至 2026-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2047721&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Understanding; Variability; Predictability; Changes

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating losses of life and property along our Eastern Seaboard. Owing to the small number of TCs in observations, our knowledge of the reasons behind the variations in TC genesis remains limited. This limitation has resulted in our failure, at times, to reasonably forecast seasonal basin-wide TC genesis frequency and in continuing challenges to predict seasonal TC genesis frequency on sub-basin scales. As such, having an improved understanding and better predictions of TC activity is societally beneficial. This project utilizes an unprecedentedly large number of high-resolution model simulations to explore NA TC genesis. These simulations greatly expand the input in data-sparse regions and improve TC incidence, allowing us to examine the fundamental processes that govern both basin-wide and sub-basin TC genesis frequency. The project results will help overcome difficulties in seasonal forecasts of TC tracks and landfall, given the enhanced information regarding the relation between preferred TC tracks and TC genesis location. The research will be integrated with activities to educate, train, and broaden the participation of students from underrepresented groups in Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate Sciences as well as to inform the broader community through public outreach. The project aims to advance the knowledge of the variability, predictability, and changes of both basin-wide and sub-basin TC genesis frequency over NA under different climates. The research objectives are to: (1) characterize the forced variability in TC genesis frequency that is driven by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the internal variability that arises due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, (2) assess the physical mechanisms underlying these two types of variability, and determine their impacts on the predictability of seasonal TC genesis frequency, (3) quantify the effects of global warming on the climatology of and trend in TC genesis frequency since the 1970s, and (4) explore how SST warming combined with a sizable greenhouse gas increase affects TC genesis frequency and evaluate the probabilistic changes in TC genesis frequency in warmer climates. These objectives will be achieved via dynamical diagnosis and statistical analysis of a very large ensemble of long-term, high-resolution simulations that accurately reproduce observed TC characteristics. This project will support the development of an interdisciplinary course to stimulate the interest of undergraduates in Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate Sciences. It will provide training for doctoral students, and hands-on research projects for underrepresented undergraduates from HBCUs and UNC Chapel Hill. The results will also be integrated into local high-school curriculum.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项是根据2021年《美国救援计划法》（公共法第117-2）的全部或部分资助的。 由于观测中的TC数量少，我们对TC Genesis差异背后原因的了解仍然有限。这一局限性导致我们有时会失败，以预测季节性盆地范围内的TC创世纪频率，并持续挑战，以预测子巴蛋白尺度上的季节性TC Genesis频率。因此，对TC活动的理解有所改善并更好地预测社会有益。该项目利用了前所未有的大量高分辨率模型模拟来探索NA TC Genesis。这些模拟大大扩展了数据 - 帕斯斯区域的输入并提高了TC的发病率，从而使我们能够检查控制盆地范围内和子巴蛋白TC Genesis频率的基本过程。鉴于有关首选TC轨道与TC Genesis位置之间关系的增强信息，该项目的结果将有助于克服TC轨道和登陆的季节性预测的困难。这项研究将与活动的活动融合，以教育，培训和扩大代表性不足的团体中的学生参与大气，海洋和气候科学，以及通过公共宣传来告知更广泛的社区。该项目旨在促进在不同气候下NA上盆地和子蛋白TC Genesis频率的可变性，可预测性和变化的知识。研究目的是：（1）表征由海面温度（SST）驱动的TC生殖频率的强制变异性以及由于大气的混乱性而引起的内部变异性，（（2）评估这两种可变性类型的物理机制，并确定其对季节性TC GENESIS的影响（3）的影响（3）的影响（3），并确定了对季节的预测能力（3）的趋势（3）的影响（3）。自1970年代以来的起源频率和（4）探讨了SST变暖与大量温室气体增加如何影响Tc Genesis频率并评估温暖气候中TC Genesis频率的概率变化。这些目标将通过动态诊断和统计分析来实现，对长期高分辨率模拟的非常大的合奏，这些模拟准确地重现了观察到的TC特征。该项目将支持开发跨学科课程，以刺激大气，海洋和气候科学的大学生的利益。它将为博士生提供培训，并为来自HBCUS和UNC Chapel Hill的代表性不足的本科生提供动手研究项目。该结果还将集成到本地高中课程中。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的评论标准来评估值得支持的。

项目成果

Variability and Predictability of Basinwide and Sub-Basin Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the Northwest Pacific

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0232.1
• 发表时间: 2022-10
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: W. Mei;Shuo Li

Effects of tropical sea surface temperature variability on Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone genesis

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0084.1
• 发表时间: 2021-08
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Shuo Li;W. Mei;S. Xie