CAREER: Understanding the Variability, Predictability and Changes of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the North Atlantic: From Basin to Sub-basin Scales

职业：了解北大西洋热带气旋发生频率的变异性、可预测性和变化：从盆地到次盆地尺度

基本信息

批准号：
2047721
负责人：
Wei Mei
金额：
$ 53.98万
依托单位：
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-07-15 至 2026-06-30
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2047721&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
CAREER Understanding Variability Predictability Changes

项目摘要

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating losses of life and property along our Eastern Seaboard. Owing to the small number of TCs in observations, our knowledge of the reasons behind the variations in TC genesis remains limited. This limitation has resulted in our failure, at times, to reasonably forecast seasonal basin-wide TC genesis frequency and in continuing challenges to predict seasonal TC genesis frequency on sub-basin scales. As such, having an improved understanding and better predictions of TC activity is societally beneficial. This project utilizes an unprecedentedly large number of high-resolution model simulations to explore NA TC genesis. These simulations greatly expand the input in data-sparse regions and improve TC incidence, allowing us to examine the fundamental processes that govern both basin-wide and sub-basin TC genesis frequency. The project results will help overcome difficulties in seasonal forecasts of TC tracks and landfall, given the enhanced information regarding the relation between preferred TC tracks and TC genesis location. The research will be integrated with activities to educate, train, and broaden the participation of students from underrepresented groups in Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate Sciences as well as to inform the broader community through public outreach. The project aims to advance the knowledge of the variability, predictability, and changes of both basin-wide and sub-basin TC genesis frequency over NA under different climates. The research objectives are to: (1) characterize the forced variability in TC genesis frequency that is driven by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the internal variability that arises due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, (2) assess the physical mechanisms underlying these two types of variability, and determine their impacts on the predictability of seasonal TC genesis frequency, (3) quantify the effects of global warming on the climatology of and trend in TC genesis frequency since the 1970s, and (4) explore how SST warming combined with a sizable greenhouse gas increase affects TC genesis frequency and evaluate the probabilistic changes in TC genesis frequency in warmer climates. These objectives will be achieved via dynamical diagnosis and statistical analysis of a very large ensemble of long-term, high-resolution simulations that accurately reproduce observed TC characteristics. This project will support the development of an interdisciplinary course to stimulate the interest of undergraduates in Atmosphere, Ocean and Climate Sciences. It will provide training for doctoral students, and hands-on research projects for underrepresented undergraduates from HBCUs and UNC Chapel Hill. The results will also be integrated into local high-school curriculum.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项的全部或部分资金根据《2021 年美国救援计划法案》（公法 117-2）提供。北大西洋 (NA) 热带气旋 (TC) 在我们东海岸造成毁灭性的生命和财产损失。由于观测到的热带气旋数量较少，我们对热带气旋发生变化背后原因的了解仍然有限。这种局限性有时导致我们无法合理预测季节性全流域热带气旋生成频率，并导致在次流域尺度上预测季节性热带气旋生成频率持续面临挑战。因此，加深对 TC 活动的了解和更好的预测对社会有益。该项目利用前所未有的大量高分辨率模型模拟来探索 NA TC 的成因。这些模拟极大地扩大了数据稀疏地区的输入并提高了TC发生率，使我们能够研究控制全流域和次流域TC发生频率的基本过程。鉴于有关首选热带气旋路径和热带气旋生成位置之间关系的增强信息，该项目结果将有助于克服热带气旋路径和登陆季节预报的困难。该研究将与教育、培训和扩大大气、海洋和气候科学领域代表性不足群体的学生的参与相结合，并通过公共宣传向更广泛的社区提供信息。该项目旨在增进对不同气候下北流域和次流域TC发生频率的变异性、可预测性和变化的了解。研究目标是：(1) 表征由海面温度 (SST) 驱动的 TC 成因频率的强迫变化以及由于大气的混沌性质而产生的内部变化，(2) 评估潜在的物理机制这两类变率，并确定它们对季节性TC发生频率可预测性的影响，(3)量化全球变暖对20世纪70年代以来TC发生频率的气候学和趋势的影响，以及(4)探讨海温变暖与温室气体大幅增加如何影响热带气旋发生频率，并评估温暖气候下热带气旋发生频率的概率变化。这些目标将通过对一个非常大的长期、高分辨率模拟集合进行动态诊断和统计分析来实现，这些模拟可以准确地再现观测到的TC特征。该项目将支持跨学科课程的开发，以激发本科生对大气、海洋和气候科学的兴趣。它将为博士生提供培训，并为 HBCU 和北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校的本科生提供实践研究项目。研究结果也将纳入当地高中课程。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。