CAREER: Future Oxygen minimum zones in Indo-Pacific Ocean: ventilation, biogeochemical feedbacks and risk of coastal dead zones

职业：印度洋-太平洋未来的最低氧气区：通风、生物地球化学反馈和沿海死亡区的风险

基本信息

批准号：
2042672
负责人：
Laure Resplandy
金额：
$ 65.42万
依托单位：
Princeton University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-06-01 至 2026-05-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2042672&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
CAREER Future Oxygen minimum zones

项目摘要

Among the many consequences of global warming and other human impacts on the oceans are a general decrease in seawater oxygen concentrations and, in some areas, pronounced expansion of ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) and coastal “dead zones.” The Indian and Pacific Oceans are areas of particularly large OMZs, and coastal waters surrounding densely populated countries in the Indian Ocean are prone to dead zones. OMZ expansion and coastal dead zones threaten marine life, including valuable species for local populations and ecosystem services such as fisheries and tourism. Larger OMZs would also produce more nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas. Despite this importance, there is no consensus on how these threats will evolve in the future. This CAREER award will use Earth system models (ESMs) to examine the suite of physical, chemical, and biological processes that combine to produce OMZs and dead zones, and study how natural processes and human activities change them. The lead investigator will develop an educational activity on climate change and mitigation at the middle-school level. This activity will guide teachers and students to explore the effects of human activities, and mitigation strategies including thought- provocative mitigation plans such as "a cyclist planet". It will be tested with local middle-school teacher and students and shared publicly on a peer-reviewed web platform. Numerous studies in the past twenty years have highlighted strong discrepancies in future projections of OMZs. One challenge to refine these projections is that prior mechanistic work generally considered sub-regions of OMZs or the effect of one physical or biological mechanism in isolation. This project will build upon and expand this body of work to provide a comprehensive understanding that connects ventilation pathways and biogeochemical feedbacks to the OMZs at the scale of the Indo-Pacific basin, including largely overlooked key processes such as the Indonesian Throughflow or anthropogenic aerosol deposition (Objectives 1 and 2). This project will harness the state-of-the-art ESM ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and novel ocean biophysical models in combination with existing observational constraints with the aim to narrow down future OMZ projections. This project will also assess for the first time the risk of coastal dead zones in the Indian Ocean, using a high-resolution regional bio-physical model that incorporates the wide range of key natural and anthropogenic processes, from local (river discharge, eddies) to global (OMZ expansion, monsoon changes) scales (Objective 3).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在全球变暖和其他人类对海洋的影响的许多后果之一是，海水氧气浓度的总体下降，在某些地区，海洋氧气浓度的显着扩大，海洋最小氧最小区（OMZ）和沿海“死区”的膨胀。印度和太平洋是特别大的OMZ的地区，印度洋处于人口稠密的国家周围的沿海水域容易进入死区。 OMZ的扩张和沿海死区威胁着海洋生物，包括用于当地人口和生态系统服务（例如渔业和旅游业）的宝贵物种。较大的OMZ还会产生更多的一氧化二氮，一种潜在的温室气体。尽管这一点很重要，但对于这些威胁将来将如何发展尚无共识。该职业奖将使用地球系统模型（ESM）来检查结合生产OMZ和死区的物理，化学和生物过程的套件，并研究自然过程和人类活动如何改变它们。首席研究人员将在中学层面开展有关气候变化和缓解的教育活动。这项活动将指导教师和学生探索人类活动的影响，以及缓解策略，包括诸如“骑自行车的星球”之类的思想缓解计划。它将与当地的中学教师和学生进行测试，并在经过同行评审的网络平台上公开共享。在过去的二十年中，许多研究强调了OMZ未来项目的巨大差异。完善这些项目的一个挑战是，先前的机械工作通常认为OMZ的子区域或一种物理或生物学机制的效果。该项目将基于和扩展这项工作，以提供全面的理解，将通风途径和生物地球化学反馈与印度太平洋盆地的规模联系起来，包括在很大程度上被忽视的关键过程，例如印度尼西亚的遍布或求人类的气溶胶沉积物（目标1和2）。该项目将利用耦合模型对比项目6（CMIP6）和新型海洋生物物理模型的最先进的ESM集合，并结合现有的观察性约束，旨在缩小未来OMZ项目的范围。该项目还将首次使用高分辨率的区域生物物理模型来评估印度洋沿海死区的风险，该模型结合了从本地（河流，涡流）到全球（OMZ扩展）到全球（OMZ扩展，季度，季度，季度的变化）的广泛关键自然和人为过程的范围（目标3）。和更广泛的影响审查标准。