Collaborative Research: Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 2º Celsius (SWAIS 2C)

合作研究：南极西部冰盖对 2 摄氏度的敏感性 (SWAIS 2C)

• 批准号: 2034719
• 负责人: Jacqueline Austermann
• 金额: $ 51.67万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-15 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2034719&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Sensitivity; West; Antarctic

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2). The West Antarctic Ice Sheet presently holds enough ice that it would raise global sea level by five meters if it all melted. Information from satellites demonstrates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice faster than any other region in the Antarctic. However, how much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt and how quickly it will happen when average global temperatures exceed 2 degrees C is currently unknown. At the current rate of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, average global temperatures will be 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C above preindustrial levels in 10 and 20 years, respectively. Virtually all pathways to restrict the increase in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees C now require direct carbon removal from the atmosphere. Sea level rise is one of the clearest planet-wide signals of this human-induced climate change. Global mean sea level has increased by ~22 cm since 1880 and will continue to rise well beyond the 21st century. Given the far-reaching and international consequences of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise, the SWAIS 2C Project was developed through international collaboration to better forecast the size and timing of future changes. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 2⁰ Celsius (SWAIS 2C) Project scientists will collect and study geological (rocks), glaciological (ice), and geophysical (Earth physical properties) data and provide new information to guide the development of climate and ice sheet numerical models to better understand and predict how the ice sheet on West Antarctica will contribute to future sea level rise. The project aims to interpret the state of past environmental conditions in West Antarctica (warm open marine seas, cold ice-covered ocean, or polar grounded ice sheet) during recent periods in Earths history when average global temperatures reached or exceeded 2 degrees C, levels anticipated within the next two decades. These types of geological studies will help us understand how much ice melted during past warm periods, what processes are involved, and how fast it will change. Glaciological and geophysical information collected by scientists will help us better understand the modern processes that cause the ice sheet to grow or melt. Modeling studies will use this new information regarding past and present ice sheet behavior to make better predictions of how much and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt in the future. This project will support a United States scientific team with a range of scientific expertise, with a key goal of broadening the involvement of early career scientists in Antarctic research. Informative and impactful education and outreach materials will be developed and shared with educators to bring polar science into the classroom and provide accurate information related to ice sheets stability, sea level rise, and global climate change to students and the public.Satellite observations show that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerated rate, much faster than other Antarctic regions. WAIS is considered highly sensitive to future warming because much of it is grounded 2500 m below sea level and its associated floating ice shelves are exposed to warming ocean waters. Future collapse of marine-based sectors and full melting of the WAIS has the potential to raise global mean sea level by 5 meters. However, Antarctic ice sheet dynamics remain the largest uncertainty in numerical model projections of future sea level rise. Existing datasets lack direct physical evidence of WAISs response to past times when global mean temperatures were 2 degrees C warmer than during pre-industrial time. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 2⁰ Celsius (SWAIS 2C) project is a four-year project developed through international collaboration to integrate geological, glaciological, and geophysical data with ice sheet and climate modeling studies to better project future scenarios of WAIS contribution to sea level rise. This approach will aim to integrate studies of past (using geological records) and present (using glaciology and geophysical records) ice sheet behavior to inform future projections (using models) of WAIS response to climate change. This project will recover two ~200 m-long sediment cores from beneath the WAIS using new drilling technology in strategic locations adjacent to the grounding zone at Kamb Ice Stream and at Crary Ice Rise in the inner Ross Embayment along the Siple Coast. Three SWAIS 2C approaches will determine conditions associated with past WAIS collapses and will sharpen our predictive tools to assess its future stability in our warming world: (1) stratigraphic records will provide new paleoenvironmental information regarding past sensitivities to system boundaries, processes, and rates of change; (2) modern observations will provide details of the variables and complexities associated with processes and rates of change; and (3) numerical model application and development will assess future scenarios to equilibrium states in accelerated time, and test system sensitivities and feedbacks. SWAIS 2C Project results will contribute new information from the southern end (most proximal to the ice grounding zone) of a transect that extends north to recent drill holes in the outer Ross Embayment to connect with distal Southern Ocean records. The SWAIS 2C Project is complementary to the US-UK Thwaites Glacier Project on the other side of West Antarctica, allowing for a broader understanding of WAIS history and more accurate predictions of future change. A major goal of this project is to broaden development of early-career scientists in polar research and work closely with teaching professionals to provide new, impactful, and assessable classroom material to educators, and accurate information related to ice sheets stability, sea level rise, and global climate change to the public.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项的全部或部分资金均根据《2021 年美国救援计划法案》（公法 117-2）提供。 南极西部冰盖目前拥有足够的冰，如果全部融化，将使全球海平面上升 5 米。卫星显示，南极西部冰盖的冰流失速度比南极任何其他地区都要快，但是，南极西部冰盖的融化程度以及融化速度有多快。目前尚不清楚全球平均气温是否会超过 2 摄氏度。按照目前向大气排放二氧化碳的速度，10 年和 20 年内全球平均气温将分别比工业化前水平高出 1.5 摄氏度和 2.0 摄氏度。全球气温上升 1.5 摄氏度现在需要直接从大气中去除碳。 海平面上升是人类引起的气候变化最明显的全球信号之一。自 1880 年以来，海平面上升了约 22 厘米，并且在 21 世纪之后仍将继续上升。鉴于南极洲未来对全球海平面上升的影响将产生深远的国际影响，SWAIS 2C 项目是通过国际合作开发的，旨在更好地预测海平面的规模和时间。南极西部冰盖对 2⁰ 摄氏度的敏感性 (SWAIS 2C) 项目科学家将收集和研究地质（岩石）、冰川学（冰）和地球物理（地球物理特性）数据，并提供新信息来指导气候和冰盖数值模型的开发，以更好地了解和预测西南极洲的冰盖将如何促进未来海平面上升。旨在解释地球历史上近期全球平均气温达到或超过 2 摄氏度（预期水平）期间南极洲西部过去的环境状况（温暖的公海、寒冷的冰覆盖海洋或极地冰盖）在接下来的二十年里，这些类型的地质研究将帮助我们了解过去温暖时期有多少冰融化，涉及哪些过程，以及科学家收集的冰川和地球物理信息将帮助我们更好地了解现代。导致冰盖生长或融化的过程的建模研究将利用有关过去和现在冰盖行为的新信息来更好地预测西南极冰盖未来融化的程度和速度。一个美国科学团队一系列科学专业知识，主要目标是扩大早期职业科学家对南极研究的参与，将开发信息丰富且有影响力的教育和宣传材料，并与教育工作者分享，将极地科学带入课堂，并提供与冰盖相关的准确信息。卫星观测表明，西南极冰盖 (WAIS) 正在加速失去质量，其速度比被认为对未来高度敏感的其他南极地区要快得多。由于大部分陆地位于海平面以下 2500 米，并且其相关的浮动冰架暴露在变暖的海水中，因此未来海洋部门的崩溃和 WAIS 的完全融化有可能使全球平均海平面上升 5 米。然而，南极冰盖动态仍然是未来海平面上升数值模型预测中最大的不确定性，现有数据集缺乏 WAIS 对过去全球平均气温比当时高 2 摄氏度的反应的直接物理证据。西南极冰盖对 2⁰ 摄氏度的敏感性 (SWAIS 2C) 项目是一个通过国际合作开发的为期四年的项目，旨在将地质、冰川和地球物理数据与冰盖和气候建模研究相结合，以更好地进行预测。该方法旨在整合过去（使用地质记录）和现在（使用冰川学和地球物理记录）冰盖行为的研究，以预测 WAIS 对海平面上升的贡献。为 WAIS 对气候变化的响应提供未来预测（使用模型） 该项目将在 Kamb 冰流和 Crary Ice 接地区附近的战略位置使用新的钻探技术，从 WAIS 下方回收两个约 200 米长的沉积岩芯。 Siple 海岸罗斯海湾内陆的隆起将确定与过去 WAIS 塌陷相关的条件，并将增强我们的预测工具，以评估其在变暖世界中的未来稳定性：(1) 地层记录将提供有关过去对系统边界、过程和变化率的敏感性的新古环境信息；(2) 现代观测将提供与过程和变化率相关的变量和复杂性的详细信息；(3) 数值模型的应用和开发将进行评估； SWAIS 2C 项目结果将提供来自向北延伸到最近钻孔的横断面南端（最接近冰接地区）的新信息。 SWAIS 2C 项目是对位于南极洲西部另一侧的美英思韦茨冰川项目的补充，可以更广泛地了解 WAIS 历史并更准确地预测未来变化。该项目的一个主要目标是扩大极地研究领域早期职业科学家的发展，并与教学专业人员密切合作，为教育工作者提供新的、有影响力的、可评估的课堂材料，以及与冰盖稳定性、海平面相关的准确信息该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。