Collaborative Research: Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 2º Celsius (SWAIS 2C)

合作研究：南极西部冰盖对 2 摄氏度的敏感性 (SWAIS 2C)

• 批准号: 2034719
• 负责人: Jacqueline Austermann
• 金额: $ 51.67万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-15 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2034719&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Sensitivity; West; Antarctic

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2). The West Antarctic Ice Sheet presently holds enough ice that it would raise global sea level by five meters if it all melted. Information from satellites demonstrates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing ice faster than any other region in the Antarctic. However, how much of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt and how quickly it will happen when average global temperatures exceed 2 degrees C is currently unknown. At the current rate of CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, average global temperatures will be 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C above preindustrial levels in 10 and 20 years, respectively. Virtually all pathways to restrict the increase in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees C now require direct carbon removal from the atmosphere. Sea level rise is one of the clearest planet-wide signals of this human-induced climate change. Global mean sea level has increased by ~22 cm since 1880 and will continue to rise well beyond the 21st century. Given the far-reaching and international consequences of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise, the SWAIS 2C Project was developed through international collaboration to better forecast the size and timing of future changes. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 2⁰ Celsius (SWAIS 2C) Project scientists will collect and study geological (rocks), glaciological (ice), and geophysical (Earth physical properties) data and provide new information to guide the development of climate and ice sheet numerical models to better understand and predict how the ice sheet on West Antarctica will contribute to future sea level rise. The project aims to interpret the state of past environmental conditions in West Antarctica (warm open marine seas, cold ice-covered ocean, or polar grounded ice sheet) during recent periods in Earths history when average global temperatures reached or exceeded 2 degrees C, levels anticipated within the next two decades. These types of geological studies will help us understand how much ice melted during past warm periods, what processes are involved, and how fast it will change. Glaciological and geophysical information collected by scientists will help us better understand the modern processes that cause the ice sheet to grow or melt. Modeling studies will use this new information regarding past and present ice sheet behavior to make better predictions of how much and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will melt in the future. This project will support a United States scientific team with a range of scientific expertise, with a key goal of broadening the involvement of early career scientists in Antarctic research. Informative and impactful education and outreach materials will be developed and shared with educators to bring polar science into the classroom and provide accurate information related to ice sheets stability, sea level rise, and global climate change to students and the public.Satellite observations show that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerated rate, much faster than other Antarctic regions. WAIS is considered highly sensitive to future warming because much of it is grounded 2500 m below sea level and its associated floating ice shelves are exposed to warming ocean waters. Future collapse of marine-based sectors and full melting of the WAIS has the potential to raise global mean sea level by 5 meters. However, Antarctic ice sheet dynamics remain the largest uncertainty in numerical model projections of future sea level rise. Existing datasets lack direct physical evidence of WAISs response to past times when global mean temperatures were 2 degrees C warmer than during pre-industrial time. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to 2⁰ Celsius (SWAIS 2C) project is a four-year project developed through international collaboration to integrate geological, glaciological, and geophysical data with ice sheet and climate modeling studies to better project future scenarios of WAIS contribution to sea level rise. This approach will aim to integrate studies of past (using geological records) and present (using glaciology and geophysical records) ice sheet behavior to inform future projections (using models) of WAIS response to climate change. This project will recover two ~200 m-long sediment cores from beneath the WAIS using new drilling technology in strategic locations adjacent to the grounding zone at Kamb Ice Stream and at Crary Ice Rise in the inner Ross Embayment along the Siple Coast. Three SWAIS 2C approaches will determine conditions associated with past WAIS collapses and will sharpen our predictive tools to assess its future stability in our warming world: (1) stratigraphic records will provide new paleoenvironmental information regarding past sensitivities to system boundaries, processes, and rates of change; (2) modern observations will provide details of the variables and complexities associated with processes and rates of change; and (3) numerical model application and development will assess future scenarios to equilibrium states in accelerated time, and test system sensitivities and feedbacks. SWAIS 2C Project results will contribute new information from the southern end (most proximal to the ice grounding zone) of a transect that extends north to recent drill holes in the outer Ross Embayment to connect with distal Southern Ocean records. The SWAIS 2C Project is complementary to the US-UK Thwaites Glacier Project on the other side of West Antarctica, allowing for a broader understanding of WAIS history and more accurate predictions of future change. A major goal of this project is to broaden development of early-career scientists in polar research and work closely with teaching professionals to provide new, impactful, and assessable classroom material to educators, and accurate information related to ice sheets stability, sea level rise, and global climate change to the public.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项是根据2021年《美国救援计划法》（公法117-2）全部或部分资助的。南极冰盖目前拥有足够的冰，如果全部融化，它将将全球海平面提高五米。来自卫星的信息表明，南极冰盖的冰盖比南极的任何其他地区都要快。但是，当全球平均温度超过2度C时，南极冰盖的大量将融化多少，以及它将发生的速度。在目前对大气排放的二氧化碳排放率时，在10年和20年内，平均全球温度将分别高于工业前水平的1.5度和2.0摄氏度。实际上，将全球温度升高限制为1.5度C的所有途径现在都需要从大气中直接去除碳。海平面上升是这种人类引起的气候变化的最明显的整个行星信号之一。自1880年以来，全球平均海平面增长了约22厘米，并将继续远远超出21世纪。鉴于南极对全球海平面上升的未来贡献的深远和国际后果，SWAIS 2C项目是通过国际合作开发的，以更好地预测未来变化的规模和时机。西南极冰盖对2⁰Celsius（SWAIS 2C）项目科学家的敏感性将收集和研究地质学（岩石），冰川学（ICE）和地球物理（地球物理特性）数据，并提供新的信息，并提供新的信息，以指导气候和冰期模型的开发，以更好地理解和预测西方人的冰层对冰层的贡献。该项目旨在解释南极西部过去环境状况的状态（温暖的开放海洋，冷冰覆盖的海洋或极地地面冰盖）在地球历史上的近期时期，当时全球平均温度达到或超过2度C，在接下来的二十年中预计将预期的水平。这些类型的地质研究将有助于我们了解过去的温暖时期融化了多少冰，涉及哪些过程以及它将改变的速度。科学家收集的冰川学和地球物理信息将帮助我们更好地了解导致冰盖生长或融化的现代过程。建模研究将使用有关过去和现在的冰盖行为的新信息，以更好地预测西南极冰盖将来会融化的速度和速度。该项目将支持一个具有一系列科学专业知识的美国科学团队，其关键目标是扩大早期职业科学家参与南极研究。将开发和有影响力的教育和宣传材料与教育工作者共享，以将极地科学带入课堂，并提供与冰盖稳定性，海平面上升和全球气候变化有关的准确信息。卫星观察表明，西南极冰盖（WAIS）表明，与其他Antarctic atticions相比，大量越来越大的质量损失了质量。 WAI被认为对未来的变暖非常敏感，因为它的大部分接地水平低于海平面，其相关的浮冰架暴露于变暖的海水。海洋领域的未来崩溃和WAI的全面融化有可能将全球平均海平面提高5米。然而，南极冰盖动态仍然是未来海平面上升的数值模型预测中最大的不确定性。现有的数据集缺乏对过去时间的直接物理证据，即与工业前时间相比，全球平均温度温暖2度时，对过去的时间响应。西南极冰盖对2⁰Celsius（SWAIS 2C）项目的敏感性是通过国际合作开发的四年项目，旨在将地质，冰川和地球物理数据与冰盖和气候建模研究整合在一起，以更好地将WAIS贡献的未来方案推向海平面上升。这种方法将旨在整合过去的研究（使用地质记录）和现在（使用冰川学和地球物理记录）冰盖行为，以告知未来项目（使用模型）对气候变化的反应。该项目将使用新的钻井技术在Kamb Ice流的地面区域附近的战略位置，在Siple Coast沿着内部的Ross Embayment中恢复了新的钻井技术，从WAIS下方恢复了两个约200 m的沉积物芯。三种SWAI 2C方法将确定与过去WAIS倒塌相关的条件，并将提高我们的预测工具，以评估其在温暖世界中的未来稳定性：（1）地层记录将提供有关过去对系统边界，过程和变化速率和变化速率的过去敏感性的新古环境信息； （2）现代观察将提供与过程和变化速率相关的变量和复杂性的细节； （3）数值模型的应用和开发将在加速时间和测试系统敏感性和反馈中评估对等效状态的未来情况。 SWAI 2C项目的结果将从横断面的南端（最代理到冰地接地区）贡献新的信息，该横向向北延伸至外部罗斯胚胎最近的钻孔，以与南部海洋远端连接。 SWAI 2C项目已完成西南极洲另一端的US-UK THWAITES冰川项目，从而更广泛地了解WAIS历史并对未来变化进行更准确的预测。该项目的一个主要目标是扩大早期职业科学家在极地研究中的发展，并与教学专业人士紧密合作，以向教育工作者提供新的，有影响力的和可评估的课堂材料，以及与冰盖稳定，海平面稳定以及全球气候变化相关的准确信息，对公众的全球气候变化，这是NSF的法律使命，并通过评估范围来表现出众多的支持，这是一位众所周知的知识者的范围。