UNS: Collaborative Research: Global Agricultural Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Climate Intervention

UNS：合作研究：平流层气溶胶气候干预对全球农业的影响

基本信息

批准号：
2028541
负责人：
Lili Xia
金额：
$ 26.68万
依托单位：
Rutgers University New Brunswick
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2020-10-01 至 2024-03-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2028541&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
UNS Collaborative Research Global Agricultural

项目摘要

Injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, an approach known as stratospheric aerosol climate intervention, has been suggested as a strategy to compensate for anthropogenic global warming. Much research has focused on climate changes associated with stratospheric aerosol climate intervention (also called stratospheric aerosol geoengineering – SAG), but only a few studies have addressed its potential societal impacts, in particular global agricultural productivity. This project will examine how anticipated climate changes from SAG, compared with the present and a future without SAG, would interact with the global agriculture system, influence crop growth, and impact world food production. Spatially explicit climate changes considered here associated with SAG include less total solar radiation, more diffuse solar radiation, reduced surface temperature, changed precipitation, changed surface ozone concentration, and different global mean CO2 levels.This project is a multidisciplinary collaboration to evaluate global agriculture impacts of SAG with an integrated assessment framework, including a state-of-the-art Earth System Model linked to multiple mechanistic crop models. These models are targeted to advance the frontier of process-based crop modeling with representations of ozone damage and diffuse radiation in photosynthesis processes. Impact uncertainties will be systematically quantified through the model ensemble setup and multi-crop model assessment, and by using different downscaling methods for climate forcing data. Detailed impacts of individual climate factors on crop yields will be studied, while considering feedbacks from the agriculture system to the anticipated SAG climate impacts. The results of this project will provide new quantitative evidence of SAG implications for world food production in view of present day and potential future climates without SAG. The project will foster communication between the climate modeling community (including the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) and the crop modeling community (the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project), to advance understanding of agricultural impacts under global warming and a future climate with stratospheric aerosol intervention.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

已经将气溶胶注入平流层，一种称为平流层气溶胶气候干预的方法，已被认为是补偿人为全球变暖的一种策略。许多研究集中在与平流层气溶胶气候干预（也称为平流层气溶胶地球工程 - SAG）相关的气候变化上，但只有少数研究已经解决了其潜在的社会影响，特别是全球农业生产力。该项目将研究与当前和没有SAG的未来相比，SAG的预期气候变化如何与全球农业体系相互作用，影响农作物的增长并影响世界粮食生产。此处考虑的与SAG相关的空间显式气候变化包括较少的太阳辐射，更多的弥漫性太阳辐射，降低的表面温度，变化的降水量，表面臭氧浓度变化以及不同的全球平均二氧化碳水平。该项目是一种多学科的协作，以评估具有整体评估框架的SAG对全球农业的影响，包括一个综合框架模型，包括一个按照状态模型的链接。这些模型旨在推进基于过程的作物建模的前沿，并具有光合作用过程中臭氧损伤和弥漫性辐射的表示。影响不确定性将通过模型集合设置和多曲线模型评估系统地量化，并使用不同的降尺度方法来强制数据。将研究各个气候因素对农作物产量的详细影响，同时考虑农业系统到预期的SAG气候影响的反馈。该项目的结果将提供新的定量证据证明当今的下垂对世界粮食生产的含义以及潜在的未来气候而没有下垂。该项目将促进气候建模社区（包括地球工程模型对比项目）与作物建模社区（农业模型对比和改进项目）之间，以提高对全球变暖下的农业影响的理解，以及未来与平流层层次的气候，以跨越的层次促进依据，这反映了NSF的智力宣传，并取代了NSF的跨国公司，并取代了NSF的规定。审查标准。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（6）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Optimal climate intervention scenarios for crop production vary by nation

作物生产的最佳气候干预情景因国家而异

DOI：
10.1038/s43016-023-00853-3
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Nature Food
影响因子：
23.2
作者：
Clark, Brendan;Xia, Lili;Robock, Alan;Tilmes, Simone;Richter, Jadwiga H.;Visioni, Daniele;Rabin, Sam S.
通讯作者：
Rabin, Sam S.

Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6

DOI：
10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023
发表时间：
2023-05
期刊：
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
W. Tang;S. Tilmes;D. Lawrence;Fang Li;Cenlin He;L. Emmons;R. Buchholz;Lili Xia
通讯作者：
W. Tang;S. Tilmes;D. Lawrence;Fang Li;Cenlin He;L. Emmons;R. Buchholz;Lili Xia

Process-Level Experiments and Policy-Relevant Scenarios in Future GeoMIP Iterations

未来 GeoMIP 迭代中的流程级实验和政策相关场景

DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-22-0281.1
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
影响因子：
8
作者：
Visioni, Daniele;Robock, Alan;Duffey, Alistair;Quaglia, Ilaria
通讯作者：
Quaglia, Ilaria

Opinion: The scientific and community-building roles of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) – past, present, and future

DOI：
10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023
发表时间：
2023-05
期刊：
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
D. Visioni;B. Kravitz;A. Robock;S. Tilmes;J. Haywood;O. Boucher;M. Lawrence;P. Irvine;U. Niemeier;L. Xia;G. Chiodo;C. Lennard;S. Watanabe;J. Moore;H. Muri
通讯作者：
D. Visioni;B. Kravitz;A. Robock;S. Tilmes;J. Haywood;O. Boucher;M. Lawrence;P. Irvine;U. Niemeier;L. Xia;G. Chiodo;C. Lennard;S. Watanabe;J. Moore;H. Muri

Future dust concentration over the Middle East and North Africa region under global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios