UNS: Collaborative Research: Global Agricultural Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Climate Intervention

UNS：合作研究：平流层气溶胶气候干预对全球农业的影响

• 批准号: 2028371
• 负责人: Jonas Jaegermeyr
• 金额: $ 3.32万
• 依托单位: University of Chicago
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-10-01 至 2021-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2028371&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: UNS; Collaborative; Research; Global; Agricultural

Injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, an approach known as stratospheric aerosol climate intervention, has been suggested as a strategy to compensate for anthropogenic global warming. Much research has focused on climate changes associated with stratospheric aerosol climate intervention (also called stratospheric aerosol geoengineering – SAG), but only a few studies have addressed its potential societal impacts, in particular global agricultural productivity. This project will examine how anticipated climate changes from SAG, compared with the present and a future without SAG, would interact with the global agriculture system, influence crop growth, and impact world food production. Spatially explicit climate changes considered here associated with SAG include less total solar radiation, more diffuse solar radiation, reduced surface temperature, changed precipitation, changed surface ozone concentration, and different global mean CO2 levels.This project is a multidisciplinary collaboration to evaluate global agriculture impacts of SAG with an integrated assessment framework, including a state-of-the-art Earth System Model linked to multiple mechanistic crop models. These models are targeted to advance the frontier of process-based crop modeling with representations of ozone damage and diffuse radiation in photosynthesis processes. Impact uncertainties will be systematically quantified through the model ensemble setup and multi-crop model assessment, and by using different downscaling methods for climate forcing data. Detailed impacts of individual climate factors on crop yields will be studied, while considering feedbacks from the agriculture system to the anticipated SAG climate impacts. The results of this project will provide new quantitative evidence of SAG implications for world food production in view of present day and potential future climates without SAG. The project will foster communication between the climate modeling community (including the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) and the crop modeling community (the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project), to advance understanding of agricultural impacts under global warming and a future climate with stratospheric aerosol intervention.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

将气溶胶注入平流层，一种称为平流层气溶胶气候干预的方法，被认为是补偿人为全球变暖的一种策略，许多研究都集中在与平流层气溶胶气候干预（也称为平流层气溶胶地球工程 - SAG）相关的气候变化上。 ），但只有少数研究探讨了其潜在的社会影响，特别是全球农业生产力。该项目将研究与当前和没有 SAG 的未来相比，SAG 带来的预期气候变化将如何相互作用。此处考虑的与 SAG 相关的空间显性气候变化包括太阳总辐射减少、太阳辐射漫射增加、地表温度降低、降水量变化、地表臭氧浓度变化等。全球平均二氧化碳水平。该项目是针对 SAG 对全球农业影响的多学科合作，具有综合评估框架，包括与多种机械作物模型相关的最先进的地球系统模型。基于过程的作物建模前沿通过模型集合设置和多作物模型评估，并通过对气候强迫数据使用不同的降尺度方法，将系统地量化光合作用过程中臭氧损害和漫射辐射的影响不确定性。考虑到农业系统对预期 SAG 气候影响的反馈，该项目的结果将提供新的定量证据，说明在没有 SAG 的情况下，SAG 对世界粮食生产的影响。促进气候建模界（包括地球工程模型比对项目）和作物建模界（农业模型比对和改进项目）之间的沟通，以增进对全球变暖和平流层气溶胶干预的未来气候影响下的农业影响的了解。该奖项通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，NSF 的法定使命被认为值得支持。