OPUS: CRS -- A Cross-Scale Synthesis in a Disturbance-Mediated System: Integrating Population, Community, and Metacommunity Perspectives

OPUS：CRS——干扰介导系统中的跨尺度综合：整合人口、社区和元社区视角

• 批准号: 1950643
• 负责人: Michael Willig
• 金额: $ 29.3万
• 依托单位: University of Connecticut
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-03-01 至 2024-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1950643&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: OPUS; CRS; Cross; Scale; Synthesis

We live in a time of rapid environmental change, challenging the ability of species to persist and of ecosystems to thrive. Thus, it is important to understand how living things respond to environmental disturbances. This project will use a long-term data set to determine how hurricanes and droughts in Puerto Rico have affected the lives of snails and slugs. These creatures may seem trivial but are not -- they play an important role in forests by breaking down dead plants and recycling nutrients. Yet, they are increasingly threatened by unusually strong hurricanes and harsh droughts. The main goal of this project is to predict how populations and groups of species change over time. How resistant or vulnerable are snails and slugs to environmental change, and why? What can we learn from them? In addition to new analyses of long-term data, the researcher will synthesize results of his past work, focusing on changes that take place at different scales and thatare somehow linked across those scales. The project will also help break down disciplinary barriers by offering courses that bring together teams of students and faculty from basic and applied environmental sciences, statistics and geography to learn together about tough environmental challenges.Synthetic research will produce theoretical and empirical discoveries that integrate perspectives on disturbance and succession, cross-scale interactions, and metacommunities. A monograph will focus on conceptual refinement and integration of theory on disturbance and succession with that on metacommunities. A second monograph will focus on long-term spatiotemporal patterns at the levels of populations, communities, and metacommunities. Population-level attributes include incidence (presence-absence) and abundance, whereas community-level attributes comprise species richness, evenness, dominance, diversity, and rarity. Each metric will be decomposed into spatial components based on multiplicative and additive models to understand how the hierarchical spatial structure responds to disturbances and subsequently changes during secondary succession. Metacommunity analyses will integrate process-based (i.e., patch dynamics, species sorting, mass effects, and neutrality) and pattern-based (i.e., coherence, range turnover, and range boundary clumping) approaches for understanding the ways in which metacommunities change over time in a hurricane-prone system. A hierarchical approach to variance decomposition will be used to quantify unique variation explained by environmental characteristics, spatial variation of unknown origin, and spatially structured environmental variation. Several emerging statistical approaches for understanding spatiotemporal variation will be explored, including (1) intervention analysis or segmented regression; (2) extended generalized linear mixed model frameworks; and (3) multivariate time series approaches and simultaneous inference procedures that accommodate Poisson or negative binomial error terms for rare or uncommon species.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

我们生活在一个环境快速变化的时代，对物种生存和生态系统繁荣的能力提出了挑战。因此，了解生物如何应对环境干扰非常重要。该项目将使用长期数据集来确定波多黎各的飓风和干旱如何影响蜗牛和蛞蝓的生活。 这些生物看似微不足道，但事实并非如此——它们通过分解死去的植物和回收养分，在森林中发挥着重要作用。然而，它们日益受到异常强烈的飓风和严重干旱的威胁。该项目的主要目标是预测物种种群和群体如何随时间变化。蜗牛和蛞蝓对环境变化的抵抗力或脆弱性如何？为什么？ 我们可以从他们身上学到什么？除了对长期数据进行新的分析之外，研究人员还将综合他过去的工作结果，重点关注不同尺度上发生的变化以及这些尺度之间以某种方式联系起来的变化。该项目还将通过提供课程，将来自基础和应用环境科学、统计学和地理学的学生和教师团队聚集在一起，共同学习应对严峻的环境挑战，从而帮助打破学科障碍。综合研究将产生理论和实证发现，整合以下观点：干扰和继承、跨尺度相互作用和元社区。专着将侧重于概念的细化以及干扰和继承理论与元社区理论的整合。第二篇专着将重点关注人口、社区和元社区层面的长期时空模式。种群层面的属性包括发生率（存在-不存在）和丰度，而群落层面的属性包括物种丰富度、均匀度、优势度、多样性和稀有度。每个度量将根据乘法和加法模型分解为空间分量，以了解层次空间结构如何响应二次演替期间的干扰和随后的变化。元社区分析将整合基于过程（即斑块动态、物种分类、质量效应和中性）和基于模式（即一致性、范围周转和范围边界聚集）的方法，以了解元社区随时间变化的方式在飓风多发的系统中。方差分解的分层方法将用于量化由环境特征、未知来源的空间变化和空间结构化环境变化解释的独特变化。将探索几种理解时空变化的新兴统计方法，包括（1）干预分析或分段回归； (2)扩展的广义线性混合模型框架； (3) 多元时间序列方法和同步推理程序，适用于稀有或不常见物种的泊松或负二项式误差项。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查进行评估，被认为值得支持标准。

项目成果

The structure of Congolese shrew ensembles: competition and spatial variation in resource abundance

刚果鼩鼱群体的结构：资源丰度的竞争和空间变异

• 发表时间: 2024-04
• 期刊: Journal of mammalogy
• 影响因子: 1.7
• 作者: Van de Pierre, F.;Willig, M.R.;Presley, S.J.;Leirs, H.;Verheyen, E.
• 通讯作者: Verheyen, E.

Protecting biodiversity via conservation networks: Taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic considerations

通过保护网络保护生物多样性：分类学、功能和系统发育考虑因素

• 发表时间: 2022-12
• 期刊: Biological Conservation
• 影响因子: 5.9
• 作者: Willig, M.R.;Presley S.J.;Klingbeil, B.T.;Kosman, E.;Scheiner, S.M.
• 通讯作者: Scheiner, S.M.

From island biogeography to landscape and metacommunity ecology: A macroecological perspective of bat communities

从岛屿生物地理学到景观和元群落生态学：蝙蝠群落的宏观生态学视角

• DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14785
• 发表时间: 2022-05-04
• 期刊: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: S. Presley;M. Willig
• 通讯作者: M. Willig

Non‐separable spatio‐temporal models via transformed multivariate Gaussian Markov random fields

通过变换多元高斯马尔可夫随机场的不可分离时空模型

• DOI: 10.1111/rssc.12567
• 发表时间: 2022-11
• 期刊: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics
• 作者: Prates, Marcos O.;Azevedo, Douglas R.;MacNab, Ying C.;Willig, Michael R.
• 通讯作者: Willig, Michael R.

Long‐term responses of gastropods to simulated hurricanes in a tropical montane rainforest

热带山地雨林腹足动物对模拟飓风的长期反应

• DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3928
• 发表时间: 2022-02
• 期刊: Ecosphere
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Presley, Steven J.;Willig, Michael R.
• 通讯作者: Willig, Michael R.