Collaborative Research: Patterns and processes of abrupt Arctic warming based on paleoclimate observations and models

合作研究：基于古气候观测和模型的北极突然变暖的模式和过程

• 批准号: 1947981
• 负责人: Elizabeth Thomas
• 金额: $ 66.5万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Buffalo
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-07-01 至 2025-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1947981&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Patterns; processes; abrupt

The rate at which the Arctic has warmed during the past 50 years is likely faster than anytime during the past 7 millennia, and temperatures will likely continue to rise during the coming centuries. This research uses geological evidence and model simulations to study the Arctic system’s response to past warming events that had similar rate and duration to that of modern warming. This project provides detailed insights into the temperature and ocean-atmosphere circulation changes associated with abrupt warming events in the Arctic, thus providing a better understanding of the potential response to future warming. Through outreach efforts, this project connects K–12 students in underserved communities to higher-education opportunities and supports multiple early career researchers, including graduate and undergraduate students. Finally, the database and model output generated from this project will be made publicly available in community-standard formats and archives, thus accelerating advances in Arctic science beyond the life of this project.This study focuses on the feedbacks and processes that determine the interactions of multiple components of the Arctic system as they have undergone rapid warming during the recent deglacial period: sea ice, coupled ocean and atmosphere, and terrestrial Arctic climate. This project tests the hypothesis that during past abrupt warming events, Arctic temperature and moisture changes exhibit a common spatial pattern, strongly controlled by proximity to sea-ice changes and paths of moisture transport. The researchers employ a three-pronged approach: (1) Quantify the climate response to three periods of abrupt warming (14,500; 11,700; and 8,000 years ago) by generating new paleoclimate data — specifically new hydroclimate inferences based on compound-specific isotopes and more accurate chronological control based on a large number of new radiocarbon ages — using existing lake sediment cores from sites that fill major data gaps; (2) Reconstruct the spatiotemporal pattern associated with these abrupt warming events using an updated Arctic-wide paleoclimate database; and (3) Compare the paleoclimate database with existing and new global climate simulations, including those using state-of-the-art isotope-enabled models to assess mechanistic links between components of the Arctic and global climate system during abrupt warming.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

过去 50 年北极变暖的速度可能比过去 7 千年中的任何时候都要快，并且在未来几个世纪内气温可能会继续上升。这项研究利用地质证据和模型模拟来研究北极系统的反应。该项目提供了与北极突然变暖事件相关的温度和海洋大气环流变化的详细见解，从而更好地了解对未来的潜在反应。通过外展活动。通过努力，该项目将服务欠缺社区的 K-12 学生与高等教育机会联系起来，并为包括研究生和本科生在内的多名早期职业研究人员提供支持。最后，该项目生成的数据库和模型输出将以社区标准公开提供。格式和档案，从而在该项目的生命周期之外加速北极科学的进步。本研究重点关注决定北极系统多个组成部分相互作用的反馈和过程，因为它们在最近的冰消期经历了快速变暖：海冰，耦合海洋和大气，并且该项目测试了这样一个假设：在过去的突然变暖事件中，北极温度和湿度变化表现出一种共同的空间模式，受到海冰变化和水分输送路径的接近程度的强烈控制。研究人员采用了三管齐下的方法。 ：（1）通过生成新的古气候数据——特别是基于基于基于大量新的放射性碳年龄的化合物特定同位素和更准确的年代控制——使用填补主要数据空白的现有湖泊沉积岩芯；（2）使用更新的北极-重建与这些突然变暖事件相关的时空模式；广泛的古气候数据库；(3) 将古气候数据库与现有和新的全球气候模拟进行比较，包括使用最先进的同位素模型来评估各组成部分之间的机制联系该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Western Siberia experienced rapid shifts in moisture source and summer water balance during the last deglaciation and early Holocene

在末次冰消期和全新世早期，西西伯利亚经历了水分来源和夏季水平衡的快速变化

• DOI: 10.1002/jqs.3386
• 发表时间: 2021-11
• 期刊: Journal of Quaternary Science
• 影响因子: 2.3
• 作者: Cowling, Owen C.;Thomas, Elizabeth K.;Svendsen, John Inge;Mangerud, Jan;Haflidason, Haflidi;Regnéll, Carl;Brendryen, Jo
• 通讯作者: Brendryen, Jo

Lake Dynamics Modulate the Air Temperature Variability Recorded by Sedimentary Aquatic Biomarkers: A Holocene Case Study From Western Greenland

湖泊动力学调节沉积水生生物标记记录的气温变化：格陵兰岛西部全新世案例研究

• DOI: 10.1029/2022jg007106
• 发表时间: 2023-06
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
• 作者: Cluett, A. A.;Thomas, E. K.;McKay, N. P.;Cowling, O. C.;Castañeda, I. S.;Morrill, C.
• 通讯作者: Morrill, C.

Early Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet Retreat Influenced Summer Atmospheric Circulation in Baffin Bay

全新世早期劳伦太德冰盖退缩影响巴芬湾夏季大气环流

• DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103428
• 发表时间: 2023-06
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Thomas, Elizabeth K.;Cluett, Allison A.;Erb, Michael P.;McKay, Nicholas P.;Briner, Jason P.;Castañeda, Isla S.;Corcoran, Megan C.;Cowling, Owen C.;Gorbey, Devon B.;Lindberg, Kurt R.;et al
• 通讯作者: et al