Are national HFC emissions reports suitable for global policy negotiation?

国家氢氟碳化合物排放报告是否适合全球政策谈判？

• 批准号: NE/M014851/1
• 负责人: Matthew Rigby
• 金额: $ 41.74万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM014851%2F1
• 关键词: national; HFC; emissions; reports; suitable

Negotiations are underway to determine whether the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) should be regulated under the Montreal Protocol, the international treaty that is designed to protect the stratospheric ozone layer. Whilst HFCs do not deplete stratospheric ozone, they are potent greenhouse gases (GHG), with global warming potentials hundreds to thousands of times that of carbon dioxide. Therefore, proponents of the proposed amendments to the Protocol argue that, because their rapid growth in the atmosphere is a direct result of the global phase-down of ozone depleting substances, for which HFCs are replacements, their resulting impact on global climate should now be regulated under the same framework. A major limitation of the on-going discussions is that emissions of HFCs are very poorly constrained at present, with more than 60% of the global emissions, as determined using atmospheric measurements, being un-reported in 2012. This could be due to poor reporting practices, and/or the incomplete nature of global emissions reports under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in which only a subset of countries are required to report their emissions in detail. Recent estimates of the emissions of HFCs and other synthetic GHGs derived from atmospheric measurements indicate that both factors are likely to contribute. However, a comprehensive evaluation of such "top-down" emissions estimates for the major reporting countries has not yet been carried out. Furthermore, we argue that the uncertainty quantification methods in the "inverse" modelling frameworks that are used to derive emissions of HFCs (and all other GHGs) must be dramatically improved if they are to be robust and relevant to policy makers.This proposal aims to develop new methods for estimating national GHG emissions using atmospheric observations and chemical transport models. In particular, we will pioneer the use of hierarchical Bayesian modelling and Gaussian process emulation. These techniques will allow us, for the first time, to explicitly include the influence of some critical uncertainties in the atmospheric modelling process on "top-down" emissions estimates. This will allow us to estimate national emissions of the major HFCs with a more complete estimate of the uncertainty than has previously been possible. We will examine in detail the differences between these emissions estimates and the national inventories, and determine critically whether the current reports submitted to the UNFCCC are appropriate for informing the debate on the future of the Montreal Protocol.

正在进行谈判，以确定是否应根据旨在保护平流层臭氧层的国际条约来调节使用氢氟化合物（HFC）。尽管HFC不会耗尽平流层臭氧，但它们是有效的温室气体（GHG），全球变暖的潜力数百至二氧化碳的数百倍。因此，该协议提出的修正案的支持者认为，由于它们在大气中的迅速增长是臭氧耗尽物质的全球阶段的直接结果，因此HFC是替代的，因此现在应在同一框架下调节其对全球气候的影响。对正在进行的讨论的主要局限性是，目前，HFC的排放量非常严重，超过60％的全球排放量（使用大气测量值确定，在2012年都没有报告。这可能是由于报告的情况不佳，并且在联合国范围内的不完整范围内，其范围不完整的报告（不及时都有范围的范围）（不及时都有一定的范围，而不是conterress of Clanders Cartive nors consect of Crive Criventer An Ions crimate ofcccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccscccccccccccccccccc cancect ofccc的不满，否则是/或排放详细。对大气测量结果得出的HFC和其他合成温室气体排放的最新估计表明，这两个因素都可能有助于。但是，尚未对主要报告国家进行此类“自上而下”的排放估算的全面评估。此外，我们认为，“反向”建模框架中的不确定性量化方法，这些框架的不确定性量化方法，这些框架用于得出HFC的排放（以及所有其他GHG），如果要与政策制定者保持牢固且相关，则必须显着改善这些方法。这些建议旨在开发用于估算大气和化学大气分配和化学大气传输模型的新方法。特别是，我们将开拓层次结构贝叶斯建模和高斯过程仿真的使用。这些技术将首次使我们明确地包括大气建模过程中某些批判性不确定性的影响对“自上而下”排放估算的影响。这将使我们能够估计主要HFC的全国排放，对不确定性的估计比以前更为完整。我们将详细研究这些排放估计和国家库存之间的差异，并批判性地确定提交给UNFCCC的当前报告是否适合告知蒙特利尔协议未来的辩论。

项目成果

Atmospheric observations show accurate reporting and little growth in India's methane emissions.

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00994-7
• 发表时间: 2017-10-10
• 期刊: Nature communications
• 影响因子: 16.6
• 作者: Ganesan AL;Rigby M;Lunt MF;Parker RJ;Boesch H;Goulding N;Umezawa T;Zahn A;Chatterjee A;Prinn RG;Tiwari YK;van der Schoot M;Krummel PB
• 通讯作者: Krummel PB

Rapid increase in ozone-depleting chloroform emissions from China

• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-018-0278-2
• 发表时间: 2019-02-01
• 期刊: NATURE GEOSCIENCE
• 影响因子: 18.3
• 作者: Fang, Xuekun;Park, Sunyoung;Prinn, Ronald G.
• 通讯作者: Prinn, Ronald G.

Atmospheric observations consistent with reported decline in the UK's methane emissions, 2013-2020

大气观测结果与 2013 年至 2020 年英国甲烷排放量下降情况一致

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-2021-548
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Lunt M

Rapid increase in dichloromethane emissions from China inferred through atmospheric observations.

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27592-y
• 发表时间: 2021-12-14
• 期刊: Nature communications
• 影响因子: 16.6
• 作者: An M;Western LM;Say D;Chen L;Claxton T;Ganesan AL;Hossaini R;Krummel PB;Manning AJ;Mühle J;O'Doherty S;Prinn RG;Weiss RF;Young D;Hu J;Yao B;Rigby M
• 通讯作者: Rigby M

Characterizing uncertainties in atmospheric inversions of fossil fuel CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in California

表征化石燃料 CO 大气反演的不确定性

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-2991-2019
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Brophy K