Collaborative Research: Patterns and processes of abrupt Arctic warming based on paleoclimate observations and models

合作研究：基于古气候观测和模型的北极突然变暖的模式和过程

• 批准号: 1947981
• 负责人: Elizabeth Thomas
• 金额: $ 66.5万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Buffalo
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-07-01 至 2025-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1947981&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Patterns; processes; abrupt

The rate at which the Arctic has warmed during the past 50 years is likely faster than anytime during the past 7 millennia, and temperatures will likely continue to rise during the coming centuries. This research uses geological evidence and model simulations to study the Arctic system’s response to past warming events that had similar rate and duration to that of modern warming. This project provides detailed insights into the temperature and ocean-atmosphere circulation changes associated with abrupt warming events in the Arctic, thus providing a better understanding of the potential response to future warming. Through outreach efforts, this project connects K–12 students in underserved communities to higher-education opportunities and supports multiple early career researchers, including graduate and undergraduate students. Finally, the database and model output generated from this project will be made publicly available in community-standard formats and archives, thus accelerating advances in Arctic science beyond the life of this project.This study focuses on the feedbacks and processes that determine the interactions of multiple components of the Arctic system as they have undergone rapid warming during the recent deglacial period: sea ice, coupled ocean and atmosphere, and terrestrial Arctic climate. This project tests the hypothesis that during past abrupt warming events, Arctic temperature and moisture changes exhibit a common spatial pattern, strongly controlled by proximity to sea-ice changes and paths of moisture transport. The researchers employ a three-pronged approach: (1) Quantify the climate response to three periods of abrupt warming (14,500; 11,700; and 8,000 years ago) by generating new paleoclimate data — specifically new hydroclimate inferences based on compound-specific isotopes and more accurate chronological control based on a large number of new radiocarbon ages — using existing lake sediment cores from sites that fill major data gaps; (2) Reconstruct the spatiotemporal pattern associated with these abrupt warming events using an updated Arctic-wide paleoclimate database; and (3) Compare the paleoclimate database with existing and new global climate simulations, including those using state-of-the-art isotope-enabled models to assess mechanistic links between components of the Arctic and global climate system during abrupt warming.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在过去50年中，北极变暖的速度可能比过去7千年的任何时候都要快，并且在接下来的几个世纪中，温度可能会继续升高。这项研究使用地质证据和模型模拟来研究北极系统对过去变暖事件的反应，其速度和持续时间与现代变暖相似。该项目提供了有关与北极突然变暖事件相关的温度和海洋循环变化的详细见解，从而更好地了解对未来变暖的潜在反应。通过宣传工作，该项目将服务不足的社区的K-12学生与更高教育的机会联系起来，并支持包括研究生和本科生在内的多个早期职业研究人员。最后，该项目产生的数据库和模型输出将以社区标准的格式和档案公开提供，该项目检验了以下假设：在过去的突然变暖事件，北极温度和水分变化中，均表现出常见的空间模式，表现出通过对海上冰的变化和水分传输路径的接近性的强烈控制。研究人员采用了一种三管齐下的方法：（1）通过生成新的古气候数据（特别是基于复合特异性的同位素和更准确的填充群库）的较高的群库来量化三个时期的突然变暖（14,500; 11,700; 11,700; 8,000年前）的攀爬反应（14,500; 11,700; 8,000年前）。 （2）使用更新的北极范围的古气候数据库重建与这些突然变暖事件相关的时空模式； （3）将古气候数据库与现有和新的全球气候模拟进行比较，包括那些使用最先进的型号模型来评估突然变暖期间北极和全球气候系统组件之间的机械联系。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过评估了Crcriatial and Intedial and crarit and crowia and Broadia and crowia and the Broadia and Broadia and crowia and the Broadia and crows and crafia and crowia and crowia。

项目成果

Lake Dynamics Modulate the Air Temperature Variability Recorded by Sedimentary Aquatic Biomarkers: A Holocene Case Study From Western Greenland

• DOI: 10.1029/2022jg007106
• 发表时间: 2023-06
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
• 作者: A. Cluett;E. Thomas;N. McKay;O. Cowling;I. Castañeda;C. Morrill

Early Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet Retreat Influenced Summer Atmospheric Circulation in Baffin Bay

• DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103428
• 发表时间: 2023-06
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: E. Thomas;A. Cluett;M. Erb;N. McKay;J. Briner;I. Castañeda;M. Corcoran;O. Cowling;D. Gorbey-D.-Go

Western Siberia experienced rapid shifts in moisture source and summer water balance during the last deglaciation and early Holocene

在末次冰消期和全新世早期，西西伯利亚经历了水分来源和夏季水平衡的快速变化

• DOI: 10.1002/jqs.3386
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Quaternary Science
• 影响因子: 2.3
• 作者: Cowling, Owen C.;Thomas, Elizabeth K.;Svendsen, John Inge;Mangerud, Jan;Haflidason, Haflidi;Regnéll, Carl;Brendryen, Jo
• 通讯作者: Brendryen, Jo