NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: The climate impacts on Alaskan and Yukon rivers, fish, and communities as told through co-produced scenarios

NNA 轨道 1：合作研究：通过共同制作的情景讲述气候对阿拉斯加和育空地区河流、鱼类和社区的影响

• 批准号: 1928189
• 负责人: Keith Musselman
• 金额: $ 220.07万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2024-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1928189&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NNA; Track; Collaborative; Research; climate

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim.Northern communities in Alaska and Canada rely upon productive fisheries. For many of these communities, rivers are used to access fishing and hunting grounds and to transport supplies during ice-free seasons and over river-ice in winter. As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, the ultimate impacts on people, their fisheries and winter travel corridors are highly uncertain. Improved understanding of the ongoing and possible future changes requires close partnership among Native groups and researchers from diverse scientific disciplines. This project is a collaboration among the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) at the University of Colorado Boulder (CU), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council (YRITWC), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals (ITEP) at North Arizona University (NAU), and two major Canadian universities. The YRITWC is a non-profit organization of 74 First Nations and Tribes that conducts monitoring of the Yukon River Watershed. Three Indigenous interns are working with YRITWC and USGS researchers and staff to enhance the community-based and federal river monitoring networks with automated water quality sensors. The new data are being used by researchers to monitor river conditions and change and to improve computer simulations of rivers, ice, and fish. Outreach to Indigenous K-12 students in the communities where monitoring is being conducted will include traveling lectures and an ask-scientists website. A Native Advisory Council will be formed in Year 1 to provide input into research directions and refinements and to ensure the production of useable outcomes. Importantly, the Council will guide the agenda of a two-day Arctic Rivers Summit in project Year 3 and the selection of 42 Indigenous community members to receive a scholarship to attend the Summit. The Summit will bring together Tribal and First Nation resource managers, Arctic and Boreal community members, and academic, federal, state, and provincial researchers to unify the state of knowledge on Arctic Rivers as a community of observers, investigators, knowledge holders, and stewards. Results from the Summit will include a white paper co-authored by all attendees. Researchers from NCAR and CU are conducting computer simulations of weather, streamflow, river ice, and water temperature for historical and potential future climate conditions over Alaska and western Canada. The data are being used by USGS and CU scientists to assess potential risks to Arctic river fish species. The project results will be communicated through co-produced scenarios jointly developed by all investigators and community members and designed to make future scenarios of Arctic change and potential societal impacts tangible and relatable to a broad audience. Thus, the project is assessing how socially important fish habitat and river-ice transport corridors of Arctic rivers may be impacted by climate-driven environmental changes.Changes in temperature, precipitation, snowmelt and streamflow timing, ice-cover, permafrost, hydrologic connectivity, river geochemistry, and groundwater are poorly characterized in northern regions, and the integrated effects on rivers and fish are critically unresolved. This project is advancing collective understanding of terrestrial hydrologic change and the potential impacts on rivers, fish, and communities in the Arctic. The project facilitates knowledge co-production through Indigenous community-based monitoring of rivers, Native engagement and oversight, ethnographic methods, and advances in climate, hydrologic, and river-ice, and fish bioenergetic models. Indigenous Knowledge (IK) and Western Science (WS) will be used to co-develop scenarios of past and plausible future conditions. An Arctic Rivers Summit co-developed by Tribal Environmental experts, YRITWC, USGS, and a Native Advisory Council identifying IK and WS baseline conditions of rivers and fish. This includes continuous water quality measurements of major rivers to observe hydrologic conditions and guide model development. The Regional Arctic System Model and the Community Terrestrial Systems Model are coupled to simulate river ice and water temperature with a chain of process-based models. Historical reanalysis, verified against baseline conditions, and future climate scenarios are simulated, and a fish bioenergetics model is being used to assess vulnerabilities of co-identified river-run Arctic fish species. Rich scenarios with IK of past events, changes, community challenges and adaptation successes will provide unique context to best communicate future model projections and impacts on the social, built and natural Arctic environment. Combining IK, climate and hydrologic modeling techniques with parallel advances in river ice, stream temperature, and fish models, the project collectively identifies convergent opportunities to monitor, map, model, assess, and communicate climate sensitivities of Arctic and boreal hydrology, rivers, and fish with respect to Indigenous culture, livelihood, transportation, and subsistence.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

NSF的10个大创意之一是导航新北极（NNA）。 NNA项目应对北极快速变化的融合科学挑战。需要进行北极研究，以告知国家，较大地区和全球的经济，安全和弹性。 NNA赋予从本地量表到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合了知识的共同生产。该奖项实现了这一目标的一部分。阿拉斯加和加拿大的北部社区依靠生产渔业。对于许多这样的社区，河流用于进入钓鱼和狩猎场，并在冬季在无冰季节和河冰上运输物资。随着北极及其河流继续变暖，对人们的最终影响，他们的渔业和冬季旅行走廊非常不确定。对正在进行的和未来可能的变化的了解，需要从各种科学学科中的研究人员和研究人员之间进行密切合作伙伴关系。该项目是科罗拉多大学博尔德大学（CU），美国地质调查局（USGS），育空河河间分水岭委员会（YRITWC）的北极和高山研究所（Instaar）的合作。大学。 YRITWC是一个由74个原住民和部落组成的非营利组织，对育空河流域进行监测。三名土著实习生正在与YRITWC和USGS研究人员和员工合作，以使用自动水质传感器来增强社区和联邦河流监测网络。研究人员正在使用新数据来监测河流状况，改变并改善对河流，冰和鱼类的计算机模拟。向正在进行监测的社区中的土著K-12学生推广将包括旅行讲座和Ask-Sientists网站。将在第1年成立一个本地咨询委员会，以提供研究方向和改进的意见，并确保产生可用的结果。重要的是，理事会将指导项目第3年的为期两天的北极河流峰会的议程，并选择了42名土著社区成员来获得奖学金来参加峰会。峰会将召集部落和原住民资源经理，北极和北方社区成员，以及学术，联邦，州和省级研究人员，将北极河流的知识状态统一为观察员，研究人员，知识持有人和管家的社区。峰会的结果将包括所有与会者共同撰写的白皮书。来自NCAR和CU的研究人员正在对阿拉斯加和加拿大西部的历史和潜在的未来气候状况进行天气，水流，河流和水温的计算机模拟。 USGS和CU科学家正在使用数据来评估北极鱼类物种的潜在风险。该项目结果将通过所有调查人员和社区成员共同开发的共同制作的场景来传达，并旨在使未来的北极变化和潜在社会影响与广泛受众相关。因此，该项目正在评估对北极河流的社会重要鱼类栖息地和河流冰的运输走廊如何受到气候驱动的环境变化的影响。温度，降水，融雪和水流时机的变化，冰覆盖，冰覆盖，多年冻土，水文连接性，水文连接性，河流的地球化学和地下水在北部地区和地下所构成的效果不佳。该项目正在促进对陆地水文变化的集体理解，以及对北极河流，鱼类和社区的潜在影响。该项目通过基于社区的河流，本地参与和监督，民族志方法以及气候，水文和河流冰的进步以及鱼类生物能模型的进步来促进知识共同生产。土著知识（IK）和西方科学（WS）将用于共同开发过去和合理的未来条件。由部落环境专家，YRITWC，USGS和一个本地咨询委员会共同开发的北极河流峰会，确定了河流和鱼类的IK和WS基线条件。这包括主要河流的连续水质测量，以观察水文条件并指导模型开发。区域北极系统模型和社区陆地系统模型与基于工艺的模型模拟河流冰和水温。历史重新分析，针对基线条件进行了验证，并模拟了未来的气候场景，并且正在使用鱼类生物能模型来评估共同识别的河流北极鱼类的脆弱性。与过去的事件，变化，社区挑战和适应成功的丰富场景将提供独特的背景，以最好地传达未来的模型预测和对社会，建筑和自然北极环境的影响。将IK，气候和水文建模技术与河流，溪流温度和鱼类模型的平行进步相结合，该项目共同确定了收敛的机会，以监视，地图，模型，评估，评估和传达北极和北方水文，河流，河流，河流以及鱼类对土著文化，元素的统计，统计范围的态度的态度的敏感性的气候，并构成了统计。值得通过基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准来通过评估来支持。

项目成果

Moving Land Models Toward More Actionable Science: A Novel Application of the Community Terrestrial Systems Model Across Alaska and the Yukon River Basin

将土地模型转向更可行的科学：阿拉斯加和育空河流域社区陆地系统模型的新颖应用

• DOI: 10.1029/2022wr032204
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Cheng, Yifan;Musselman, Keith N.;Swenson, Sean;Lawrence, David;Hamman, Joseph;Dagon, Katherine;Kennedy, Daniel;Newman, Andrew J.
• 通讯作者: Newman, Andrew J.

Increasing Alaskan river discharge during the cold season is driven by recent warming

最近变暖导致阿拉斯加河流在寒冷季节的流量增加

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb661
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Blaskey, Dylan;Koch, Joshua C.;Gooseff, Michael N.;Newman, Andrew J.;Cheng, Yifan;O’Donnell, Jonathan A.;Musselman, Keith N.
• 通讯作者: Musselman, Keith N.

The Arctic Rivers Project: Using an Equitable Co‐Production Framework for Integrating Meaningful Community Engagement and Science to Understand Climate Impacts

北极河流项目：利用公平的联合生产框架将有意义的社区参与和科学结合起来，以了解气候影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2022csj000024
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Community Science
• 作者: Herman‐Mercer, Nicole;Andre, Alestine;Buschman, Victoria;Blaskey, Dylan;Brooks, Cassandra;Cheng, Yifan;Combs, Evelynn;Cozzetto, Karen;Fitka, Serena;Koch, Joshua
• 通讯作者: Koch, Joshua