NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: The climate impacts on Alaskan and Yukon rivers, fish, and communities as told through co-produced scenarios

NNA 轨道 1：合作研究：通过共同制作的情景讲述气候对阿拉斯加和育空地区河流、鱼类和社区的影响

• 批准号: 1928078
• 负责人: Andrew Newman
• 金额: $ 79.9万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2024-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1928078&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NNA; Track; Collaborative; Research; climate

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim.Northern communities in Alaska and Canada rely upon productive fisheries. For many of these communities, rivers are used to access fishing and hunting grounds and to transport supplies during ice-free seasons and over river-ice in winter. As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, the ultimate impacts on people, their fisheries and winter travel corridors are highly uncertain. Improved understanding of the ongoing and possible future changes requires close partnership among Native groups and researchers from diverse scientific disciplines. This project is a collaboration among the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) at the University of Colorado Boulder (CU), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council (YRITWC), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals (ITEP) at North Arizona University (NAU), and two major Canadian universities. The YRITWC is a non-profit organization of 74 First Nations and Tribes that conducts monitoring of the Yukon River Watershed. Three Indigenous interns are working with YRITWC and USGS researchers and staff to enhance the community-based and federal river monitoring networks with automated water quality sensors. The new data are being used by researchers to monitor river conditions and change and to improve computer simulations of rivers, ice, and fish. Outreach to Indigenous K-12 students in the communities where monitoring is being conducted will include traveling lectures and an ask-scientists website. A Native Advisory Council will be formed in Year 1 to provide input into research directions and refinements and to ensure the production of useable outcomes. Importantly, the Council will guide the agenda of a two-day Arctic Rivers Summit in project Year 3 and the selection of 42 Indigenous community members to receive a scholarship to attend the Summit. The Summit will bring together Tribal and First Nation resource managers, Arctic and Boreal community members, and academic, federal, state, and provincial researchers to unify the state of knowledge on Arctic Rivers as a community of observers, investigators, knowledge holders, and stewards. Results from the Summit will include a white paper co-authored by all attendees. Researchers from NCAR and CU are conducting computer simulations of weather, streamflow, river ice, and water temperature for historical and potential future climate conditions over Alaska and western Canada. The data are being used by USGS and CU scientists to assess potential risks to Arctic river fish species. The project results will be communicated through co-produced scenarios jointly developed by all investigators and community members and designed to make future scenarios of Arctic change and potential societal impacts tangible and relatable to a broad audience. Thus, the project is assessing how socially important fish habitat and river-ice transport corridors of Arctic rivers may be impacted by climate-driven environmental changes.Changes in temperature, precipitation, snowmelt and streamflow timing, ice-cover, permafrost, hydrologic connectivity, river geochemistry, and groundwater are poorly characterized in northern regions, and the integrated effects on rivers and fish are critically unresolved. This project is advancing collective understanding of terrestrial hydrologic change and the potential impacts on rivers, fish, and communities in the Arctic. The project facilitates knowledge co-production through Indigenous community-based monitoring of rivers, Native engagement and oversight, ethnographic methods, and advances in climate, hydrologic, and river-ice, and fish bioenergetic models. Indigenous Knowledge (IK) and Western Science (WS) will be used to co-develop scenarios of past and plausible future conditions. An Arctic Rivers Summit co-developed by Tribal Environmental experts, YRITWC, USGS, and a Native Advisory Council identifying IK and WS baseline conditions of rivers and fish. This includes continuous water quality measurements of major rivers to observe hydrologic conditions and guide model development. The Regional Arctic System Model and the Community Terrestrial Systems Model are coupled to simulate river ice and water temperature with a chain of process-based models. Historical reanalysis, verified against baseline conditions, and future climate scenarios are simulated, and a fish bioenergetics model is being used to assess vulnerabilities of co-identified river-run Arctic fish species. Rich scenarios with IK of past events, changes, community challenges and adaptation successes will provide unique context to best communicate future model projections and impacts on the social, built and natural Arctic environment. Combining IK, climate and hydrologic modeling techniques with parallel advances in river ice, stream temperature, and fish models, the project collectively identifies convergent opportunities to monitor, map, model, assess, and communicate climate sensitivities of Arctic and boreal hydrology, rivers, and fish with respect to Indigenous culture, livelihood, transportation, and subsistence.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

航行新北极 (NNA) 是 NSF 的 10 大创意之一。 NNA 项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。 NNA 赋予从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合知识的共同生产。该奖项部分实现了这一目标。阿拉斯加和加拿大的北部社区依赖高产渔业。对于其中许多社区来说，河流被用来进入捕鱼和狩猎场，并在无冰季节和冬季通过河流冰运输物资。随着北极及其河流持续变暖，对人类、渔业和冬季旅行走廊的最终影响高度不确定。为了更好地了解正在发生的和未来可能发生的变化，需要原住民团体和来自不同科学学科的研究人员之间建立密切的合作关系。该项目是科罗拉多大学博尔德分校 (CU) 北极与高山研究所 (INSTAAR)、美国地质调查局 (USGS)、育空河部落间流域理事会 (YRITWC)、国家中心大气研究中心 (NCAR)、北亚利桑那大学 (NAU) 部落环境专业人员研究所 (ITEP) 以及加拿大两所主要大学。 YRITWC 是一个由 74 个原住民和部落组成的非营利组织，负责对育空河流域进行监测。三名原住民实习生正在与 YRITWC 和 USGS 研究人员及工作人员合作，利用自动化水质传感器增强基于社区和联邦的河流监测网络。研究人员正在使用新数据来监测河流状况和变化，并改进河流、冰和鱼类的计算机模拟。对正在开展监测的社区中的土著 K-12 学生进行的宣传活动将包括巡回讲座和询问科学家网站。本土咨询委员会将在第一年成立，为研究方向和改进提供投入，并确保产生可用的成果。重要的是，理事会将指导项目第三年为期两天的北极河流峰会的议程，并选择 42 名原住民社区成员获得参加峰会的奖学金。峰会将汇集部落和原住民资源管理者、北极和北方社区成员以及学术、联邦、州和省级研究人员，以观察员、调查员、知识持有者和管理者的社区的形式统一北极河流的知识状况。峰会的结果将包括一份由所有与会者共同撰写的白皮书。 NCAR 和 CU 的研究人员正在对阿拉斯加和加拿大西部历史和未来潜在气候条件的天气、水流、河冰和水温进行计算机模拟。美国地质勘探局和科罗拉多大学的科学家正在使用这些数据来评估北极河流鱼类的潜在风险。该项目的结果将通过所有调查人员和社区成员共同开发的共同制作的情景进行传达，旨在使北极变化和潜在社会影响的未来情景变得切实可行，并与广大受众产生共鸣。因此，该项目正在评估气候驱动的环境变化对社会重要的鱼类栖息地和北极河流的河冰运输走廊的影响。温度、降水、融雪和水流时间、冰盖、永久冻土、水文连通性的变化，北部地区的河流地球化学和地下水特征很少，对河流和鱼类的综合影响也尚未得到解决。该项目正在增进对陆地水文变化及其对北极河流、鱼类和社区的潜在影响的集体理解。该项目通过以土著社区为基础的河流监测、土著参与和监督、人种学方法以及气候、水文、河流冰和鱼类生物能模型的进展，促进知识共同生产。本土知识（IK）和西方科学（WS）将用于共同开发过去和可能的未来条件的情景。由部落环境专家、YRITWC、USGS 和原住民咨询委员会共同制定的北极河流峰会确定了河流和鱼类的 IK 和 WS 基线状况。这包括对主要河流进行连续水质测量，以观察水文状况并指导模型开发。区域北极系统模型和社区陆地系统模型相结合，通过一系列基于过程的模型来模拟河流冰和水温。历史重新分析，根据基线条件进行验证，并模拟未来的气候情景，并使用鱼类生物能量学模型来评估共同识别的北极河流鱼类的脆弱性。包含过去事件、变化、社区挑战和适应成功的 IK 的丰富场景将为更好地传达未来模型预测以及对北极社会、建筑和自然环境的影响提供独特的背景。该项目将 IK、气候和水文建模技术与河流冰、河流温度和鱼类模型的并行进展相结合，共同确定了监测、绘图、建模、评估和交流北极和北方水文、河流和鱼类的气候敏感性的聚合机会。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Moving Land Models Toward More Actionable Science: A Novel Application of the Community Terrestrial Systems Model Across Alaska and the Yukon River Basin

将土地模型转向更可行的科学：阿拉斯加和育空河流域社区陆地系统模型的新颖应用

• DOI: 10.1029/2022wr032204
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Cheng, Yifan;Musselman, Keith N.;Swenson, Sean;Lawrence, David;Hamman, Joseph;Dagon, Katherine;Kennedy, Daniel;Newman, Andrew J.
• 通讯作者: Newman, Andrew J.

Increasing Alaskan river discharge during the cold season is driven by recent warming

最近变暖导致阿拉斯加河流在寒冷季节的流量增加

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acb661
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Blaskey, Dylan;Koch, Joshua C.;Gooseff, Michael N.;Newman, Andrew J.;Cheng, Yifan;O’Donnell, Jonathan A.;Musselman, Keith N.
• 通讯作者: Musselman, Keith N.

The Arctic Rivers Project: Using an Equitable Co‐Production Framework for Integrating Meaningful Community Engagement and Science to Understand Climate Impacts

北极河流项目：利用公平的联合生产框架将有意义的社区参与和科学结合起来，以了解气候影响

• DOI: 10.1029/2022csj000024
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Community Science
• 作者: Herman‐Mercer, Nicole;Andre, Alestine;Buschman, Victoria;Blaskey, Dylan;Brooks, Cassandra;Cheng, Yifan;Combs, Evelynn;Cozzetto, Karen;Fitka, Serena;Koch, Joshua
• 通讯作者: Koch, Joshua