Collaborative research: RoL: Using reaction norms to link genomic and phenotypic variation with regional-scale population responses to environmental change

合作研究：RoL：利用反应规范将基因组和表型变异与区域规模人口对环境变化的反应联系起来

• 批准号: 1927282
• 负责人: Peter Adler
• 金额: $ 104.61万
• 依托单位: Utah State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-01-01 至 2024-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1927282&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; research; RoL; Using; reaction

Rapid environmental changes, such as rising temperatures and nitrogen pollution, can have dramatic impacts on plant and animal species important to society. Endangered species may be driven extinct, damaging invasive species might increase in distribution and abundance, and changes in the production of timber or forage species can alter rural economies. To help natural resource managers make good decisions, biologists predict the effect of environmental change on important species using population models. However, these predictions are rarely tested against observations. As a result, the ability of population models to make accurate forecasts for large regions is unknown. The goal of this project is to build a state-of-the-art population model and rigorously test its predictions against independent observations. The results will establish a benchmark for the current predictive ability of population models, while also identifying the kind of information required to make good predictions. For example, is it possible to make a skillful forecast without understanding genetic differences between individuals from different locations or accounting for interactions between the study species and its competitors? Graduate students and postdoctoral scientists will be invited to workshops for training in advanced statistical and population modeling techniques. To educate the public about the impacts of invasive species and environmental change, interactive exhibits will be installed at three museums and botanical gardens.The proposed research focuses on the reaction norm, a quantitative description of how an organism's performance depends on the environment. Success will require new advances to determine the relative importance of processes operating at gene, individual, and community levels in shaping reaction norms and regional population dynamics. The investigators will integrate DNA sequencing, common environment experiments, a regional network of distributed experiments across abiotic gradients, and new statistical techniques to answer the following questions: 1) What processes influencing reaction norms must we understand to predict impacts of environmental change on regional-scale population dynamics? 2) What is the magnitude of intraspecific variation in reaction norms, and to what extent does it reflect local adaptation vs. other processes? 3) How do phenology and physiology interact to determine demographic responses to weather? 4) How do abiotic conditions and competitive environment combine to influence demographic rates? The focal species is the invasive grass Bromus tectorum, which has degraded millions of acres of sagebrush steppe across the western US. Predictions about future changes in B. tectorum abundance across the region, and resulting changes in fire regimes, will help decision-makers prioritize future investments in conservation and restoration.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

快速的环境变化，例如温度升高和氮污染，可能对对社会重要的动植物物种产生巨大影响。濒危物种可能被驱动灭绝，破坏性入侵物种的分布和丰度可能会增加，木材或饲料物种的生产变化会改变农村经济。为了帮助自然资源经理做出良好的决定，生物学家使用人群模型预测了环境变化对重要物种的影响。但是，这些预测很少针对观察结果进行测试。结果，人口模型对大区域进行准确预测的能力尚不清楚。该项目的目的是建立最先进的人口模型，并严格测试其针对独立观察的预测。结果将为当前人口模型的当前预测能力建立基准，同时还确定做出良好预测所需的信息。例如，是否有可能在不了解不同位置的个体之间的遗传差异或考虑研究物种与其竞争者之间的相互作用的情况下进行熟练的预测？研究生和博士后科学家将被邀请参加高级统计和人口建模技术培训的研讨会。为了教育公众有关入侵物种和环境变化的影响，互动展览将安装在三个博物馆和植物园中。拟议的研究重点介绍了反应规范，这是对生物体的性能如何依赖环境的定量描述。成功将需要新的进步，以确定在塑造反应规范和区域人口动态的基因，个体和社区水平上运行过程的相对重要性。研究人员将整合DNA测序，共同的环境实验，跨非生物梯度的分布式实验的区域网络以及新的统计技术来回答以下问题：1）我们必须了解哪些影响反应规范的过程以预测环境变化对区域变化的影响 - 规模人口动态？ 2）反应规范中种内变异的幅度是多少，它在多大程度上反映了局部适应与其他过程？ 3）物候和生理学如何相互作用以确定对天气的人口反应？ 4）非生物条件和竞争环境如何结合影响人口率？焦点是侵入性的草bromus tectorum，它在整个美国西部降低了数百万英亩的鼠尾草草原。关于整个地区的tectorum丰度变化的预测，以及导致火灾制度的变化，将有助于决策者优先考虑未来在保护和恢复方面的未来投资。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过使用评估来支持的。基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响评论标准。

项目成果

Experimental manipulation of soil-surface albedo alters phenology and growth of Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass)

• DOI: 10.1007/s11104-023-05929-4
• 发表时间: 2023-02
• 期刊: Plant and Soil
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: T. Maxwell;M. Germino;Seth Romero;Lauren M. Porensky;D. Blumenthal;Cynthia S. Brown;P. Adler

What processes must we understand to forecast regional-scale population dynamics?

• DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.2219
• 发表时间: 2020-12-09
• 期刊: PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
• 影响因子: 4.7
• 作者: Lasky, Jesse R.;Hooten, Mevin B.;Adler, Peter B.
• 通讯作者: Adler, Peter B.

Matching the forecast horizon with the relevant spatial and temporal processes and data sources

• DOI: 10.1111/ecog.05271
• 发表时间: 2020-08-04
• 期刊: ECOGRAPHY
• 影响因子: 5.9
• 作者: Adler, Peter B.;White, Ethan P.;Cortez, Michael H.
• 通讯作者: Cortez, Michael H.