Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Service

贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究：生物多样性和生态系统服务情景

• 批准号: 1854976
• 负责人: James Clark
• 金额: $ 18万
• 依托单位: Duke University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-04-01 至 2022-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1854976&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Belmont; Forum; Collaborative; Research; Scenarios

Innovative research on the complex interaction of socio-economic and global environmental trends on biodiversity and ecosystem services is needed to help develop more informative scenarios for addressing environmental and human development challenges. To overcome these challenges coupled natural-human systems approaches and analyses are needed. These provide improved scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services that couple the outputs of direct and indirect drivers such as land use, invasive species, overexploitation, biodiversity, environmental change, and pollution. The resulting models provide a methodological state-of-the art that results in more accurate quantitative assessments, better land use, and more effective ecosystem services. Employing this methodology, this research project focuses on addressing land-use changes due to abrupt climate change and their impact on species extinctions, range shifts, and phenological changes. Better knowledge in this area is critical because species loss destabilizes food webs which can negatively impact human well-being and have unexpected consequences for multiple ecosystem functions and associated services. Predicting the response of biodiversity to global change has thus become an important area of research. Present models intended to anticipate future biodiversity and ecosystem services have been criticized for ignoring inputs such as biotic interactions and links between trophic levels (e.g., predator-prey relationships). This research will use a recently created, sophisticated, biodiversity modeling code that integrates predictive biogeography, geography, biostatistics, and trophic web ecology to derive scenarios of the impact of global change on biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the provision of ecosystem services. As a test case, the program will be combined with information from stakeholders and statistics on vertebrates to generate a suite of likely models of pan-European vertebrate biodiversity as they might be influenced by climate change. Stakeholders information will be used to inform the project so methodological choices, scenarios, and indicators can be made/set in such a way that results are useful for conservation planning and decision-making support. Broader impacts of the work include international collaboration between US investigators and six European (Finnish, United Kingdom, Dutch, German, Swiss, French, and Italian) scientists and the generation of scenarios for improving policy, decision-making, and conservation planning of ecosystem services involving vertebrate species across the European continent. In this coalition of investigators, each country funds it own scientists and their part of the project. Additional broader impacts of the work include workshops and summer schools to inform stakeholder groups and train/education students and postdocs, respectively; the generation of reports for the European Commission; and public outreach through a project website linked to social media and online discussion groups and forums. For the US component of the work, there will be the training of a postdoctoral scholar in transdisciplinary, international science and teamwork.This award supports US researchers participating in a project competitively selected by a coalition of 26 funding agencies from 23 countries through the Belmont Forum call for proposals on "Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services". The call was a multilateral initiative designed to support research projects that contribute to the development of scenarios, models, and decision-support tools for understanding and solving critical issues facing our planet. The goal of the competition was to improve and apply participatory scenario methods to enhance research relevance and its acceptance and to address gaps in methods for modelling impact drivers and policy interventions. It was also to develop and communicate levels of uncertainty associated with the models, to improve data accessibility and fill gaps in knowledge. Using this methodology, this research builds on the newly developed Generalized Joint Attribute Model, a generative model that solves two big challenges for predicting community change: (1) the ability to model responses of interdependent species across distantly related taxonomic groups and (2) the ability to link species on scales from plot-based plant abundance to individual- and plot-level herbivore damage. These advances allow modeling of the distribution of individual species and species groups across entire communities, while considering shared responses to the environment and co-variation between species. The modeling code used in the project employs a flexible hierarchical framework to model species communities responding to multiple environmental changes. In addition to the modeling, the project will work to expand the capabilities of the present modeling platform so it can address predator-prey and competition-for-prey interactions. It will also allow incorporation of prior information on expected relationships between species based on relationships within the "who eats whom" network via hierarchical implementation. Species predictions will include an analysis of uncertainties and responses to environmental parameters as well as shared species responses to the environment and interactions with other species. Model results will be used to identify areas of conservation priority by combining principles of systematic conservation planning with ensemble projections of multi-trophic communities and ecosystem services.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

需要对生物多样性和生态系统服务的社会经济和全球环境趋势的复杂相互作用的创新研究，以帮助开发更有用的方案，以应对环境和人类发展挑战。为了克服这些挑战，需要进行自然人类系统的方法和分析。这些提供了改进的生物多样性和生态系统服务方案，这些方案将直接和间接驱动因素的输出（例如土地使用，入侵物种，过度开发，生物多样性，环境变化和污染）融为一体。最终的模型提供了一种方法上的最先进，可导致更准确的定量评估，更好的土地利用和更有效的生态系统服务。该研究项目采用这种方法，重点是解决由于气候变化的突然变化及其对物种灭绝，范围变化和物候变化的影响而引起的土地利用变化。在该领域的更好的知识至关重要，因为物种损失破坏了食物网，这可能会对人类的福祉产生负面影响，并对多个生态系统功能和相关服务产生意外的后果。因此，预测生物多样性对全球变化的反应已成为研究的重要领域。目前旨在预测未来的生物多样性和生态系统服务的模型因忽略了诸如生物互动和营养层之间的联系（例如捕食者 - 捕食者关系）之类的意见而受到批评。这项研究将使用最近创建的，复杂的生物多样性建模代码，该代码整合了预测性生物地理学，地理，生物统计学和营养网络生态学，从而导致全球变化对生物多样性，生态系统功能的影响以及生态系统服务提供的情况。作为测试案例，该计划将与利益相关者的信息和脊椎动物的统计数据结合使用，以生成一套可能受到气候变化影响的泛欧脊椎动物生物多样性的模型。利益相关者的信息将用于为项目提供信息，以便可以做出/设置方法论选择，场景和指标，以使结果可用于保护计划和决策支持。这项工作的更广泛影响包括美国调查人员与六个欧洲（芬兰，英国，荷兰，德国，瑞士，法国和意大利语）科学家之间的合作，以及改善涉及整个欧洲大陆脊椎动物物种的生态系统服务的政策，决策和保护计划的场景。在这个调查人员的联盟中，每个国家都资助了自己的科学家及其项目的一部分。这项工作的其他更广泛的影响包括研讨会和暑期学校，分别为利益相关者群体和培训/教育学生和博士后提供信息；欧盟委员会的报告产生；以及通过与社交媒体以及在线讨论小组和论坛相关的项目网站的公众推广。对于美国工作的一部分，将培训一名跨学科，国际科学和团队工作的博士后学者。该奖项支持美国的研究人员参与一个由26个国家 /地区通过Belmont Forum通过Belmont Forum通过贝尔蒙特（Belmont）论坛呼吁的“生物多样性和生态学服务风景”的项目竞争性选择的项目。该呼吁是一项多边倡议，旨在支持研究项目，该项目有助于开发场景，模型和决策支持工具，以理解和解决我们地球面临的关键问题。竞争的目的是改善和应用参与式方案方法，以增强研究相关性及其接受度，并解决对影响驱动因素和政策干预措施进行建模方法的差距。这也是要开发和传达与模型相关的不确定性水平，以提高数据可访问性并填补知识的空白。使用这种方法，这项研究建立在新开发的广义联合属性模型上，该模型解决了预测社区变化的两个大挑战：（1）能够建模相互依存的物种在遥远相关的分类学组中的相互依存物种的响应能力，以及（2）将物种从鳞片上链接到基于情节的植物植物丰富的物种与个人和情节层面的损害。 这些进步允许对整个社区中个别物种和物种群体的分布进行建模，同时考虑对环境的共同反应和物种之间的共同变化。该项目中使用的建模代码采用灵活的层次结构框架来建模物种社区，以应对多种环境变化。除了建模外，该项目还将致力于扩展本建模平台的功能，以便解决捕食者 - 捕食者和竞争互动的交互。它还将允许根据“谁在层次实施”网络中建立有关物种之间预期关系的先前信息。物种预测将包括对不确定性和对环境参数的反应的分析，以及共享物种对环境的反应以及与其他物种的相互作用。 模型结果将用于通过将系统保护计划的原则与多营养社区和生态系统服务的集合预测相结合，以确定保护优先级。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的审查标准来通过评估来进行评估的。

项目成果

Where Resource‐Acquisitive Species Are Located: The Role of Habitat Heterogeneity

• DOI: 10.1029/2020gl087626
• 发表时间: 2020-04
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: B. Seyednasrollah;J. Clark

Clustering Species With Residual Covariance Matrix in Joint Species Distribution Models

• DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.601384
• 发表时间: 2021-03-09
• 期刊: FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
• 影响因子: 3
• 作者: Bystrova, Daria;Poggiato, Giovanni;Thuiller, Wilfried
• 通讯作者: Thuiller, Wilfried

The emergent interactions that govern biodiversity change

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2003852117
• 发表时间: 2020-07-21
• 期刊: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• 影响因子: 11.1
• 作者: Clark, James S.;Scher, C. Lane;Swift, Margaret
• 通讯作者: Swift, Margaret