Autonomy and Behavioral Risk Preferences

自主性和行为风险偏好

• 批准号: 1851702
• 负责人: Gretchen Chapman
• 金额: $ 28.42万
• 依托单位: Carnegie-Mellon University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-05-01 至 2022-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1851702&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Autonomy; Behavioral; Risk; Preferences

Many situations require confronting risky situations: for example, personal choices about retirement, investment in risky portfolios, business decisions about selling new products with uncertain customer demand, or foreign policy strategies with unclear international consequences. This project tests the idea that decision makers are more accepting of risk when they perceive that they have control over the level of risk they experience. The role of autonomy may explain why decision makers choose a small likelihood of a large outcome over a small certain alternative even though the small certain outcome is more motivating than the uncertain amount as a reward for performing an effortful task. The research findings have implications for understanding when decision makers are most willing to take on risk and for how best to incentivize performance tasks.Decisions under risk are ubiquitous in everyday life. In some risky situations decision makers have autonomy over the risk level they experience while in others decision makers respond to an assigned risk present in the environment. This research project tests the hypothesis that autonomy increases risk tolerance such that decision makers will exhibit more risk-seeking preferences when they can choose an option than when they respond to an assigned risk. One set of studies tests the prediction that autonomy, or even just the perception of control, increases risk tolerance. That is, decision makers are predicted to have a stronger preference for risky alternatives if they perceive that they have control over the risk level they experience, even when the objective risk level is held constant between decision makers who do and do not have autonomy. A second set of studies applies the effects of autonomy to why decision makers tend to choose low probability lotteries over matched certain outcomes whereas similar lotteries do not serve as effective incentives for effort tasks relative to certain incentives. The researchers compare risk preferences revealed in choice tasks to those revealed in effort tasks with real incentives, they seek to isolate the task features responsible for the difference in risk preference, and they test whether differences in perceived autonomy can explain why decision makers will choose risky options but not work for them. Ten laboratory experiments and two field studies test the predictions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

许多情况都需要面对风险的情况：例如，关于退休的个人选择，对风险投资组合的投资，有关出售客户需求不确定的新产品的业务决策或具有不清国际后果的外交政策策略。该项目测试了这样一个想法，即决策者认为他们对自己所经历的风险水平有控制权时，他们会更加接受风险。自主权的作用可以解释为什么决策者选择一个很小的可能性，而不是一定的替代方案，即使一定的一定结果比不确定的数量更具动力作为完成一项艰苦的任务的奖励。研究结果对理解决策者何时最愿意承担风险以及如何最好地激励绩效任务具有影响。在日常生活中，危险的决定无处不在。在某些风险的情况下，决策者在他们所经历的风险水平上具有自主权，而在其他情况下，决策者会对环境中的指定风险做出反应。该研究项目检验了以下假设：自主性会增加风险承受能力，以便在决策者可以选择选项时，他们将表现出更多的寻求风险偏好，而不是对指定风险的反应。一组研究测试了自主权，甚至仅仅对控制感知的预测会增加风险承受能力。也就是说，如果决策者认为自己可以控制自己所经历的风险水平，即使在有和没有自主权的决策者之间保持客观风险水平，他们将对风险替代方案有更强的偏爱。第二组研究应用了自主权的影响，为什么决策者倾向于选择低概率彩票，而不是匹配的某些结果，而类似的彩票则不是相对于某些激励措施的有效激励措施。研究人员将选择任务中揭示的风险偏好与在努力任务中揭示的风险偏好进行比较，他们试图隔离负责风险偏好差异的任务功能，并测试他们感知的自主权的差异是否可以解释为什么决策者会选择风险的选择，而对他们不起作用。十项实验室实验和两项现场研究测试了预测。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的审查标准来评估值得支持的。