Doctoral Dissertation Research in DRMS: Qualitative predictions from intertemporal choice models

DRMS 博士论文研究：跨期选择模型的定性预测

• 批准号: 1156072
• 负责人: Gretchen Chapman
• 金额: $ 1.41万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-02-15 至 2014-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1156072&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; DRMS; Qualitative

In this project the Principal Investigators will exam the qualitative differences between discounting functions in intertemporal choice. Mazur (1987) proposed the hyperbolic discounting function. This type of function implies frequently observed dynamic inconsistency - a preference reversal whereby the agent initially prefers the larger later reward but later changes to prefer the smaller sooner reward . Subsequent researchers have proposed alternative discounting functions to explain this and other empirical regularities. The hyperbolic discounting function is still the most widely accepted model; however, comparisons of different models have not convinced all researchers that it is the best descriptive theory. This may be because previous model comparisons have focused on quantitative differences among models, especially the curve fits between each model and data. Strictly speaking, a curve fit does not provide a decisive conclusion about whether the model is qualitatively correct or not. It only tells which function fits the data better than others. The current research aims to provide more decisive evidence by highlighting qualitative differences between models. To investigate the qualitative predictions of different models of intertemporal choice, the investigators have developed a new modeling framework that can analyze choice patterns across different delays, reward magnitudes, and individual parameters based on the specific mathematical models. In terms of broader impacts, this research will benefit the general public and practitioners who want to promote self-regulation by providing a better understanding of the conflicts between short-term temptations and long-term benefits. It has implications in a variety of arenas, such as retirement planning, addiction treatment, healthy behavior change, and procrastination.

在这个项目中，主要研究人员将检查跨阶段选择中折现功能之间的质差。 Mazur（1987）提出了双曲线折现功能。 这种类型的函数意味着经常观察到的动态不一致 - 一种优先逆转，代理最初更喜欢较大的后期奖励，但后来更改以更喜欢较小的早期奖励。随后的研究人员提出了替代折现功能，以解释这一和其他经验规律性。 双曲线折现功能仍然是最广泛接受的模型。 但是，不同模型的比较并未使所有研究人员相信这是最好的描述性理论。这可能是因为以前的模型比较集中在模型之间的定量差异上，尤其是每个模型和数据之间的曲线拟合。严格来说，曲线拟合并不能就模型在定性上正确的结论提供决定性的结论。它仅告诉哪个功能比其他功能更适合数据。当前的研究旨在通过强调模型之间的定性差异来提供更具决定性的证据。为了研究不同模型间选择的定性预测，研究人员开发了一个新的建模框架，可以根据特定的数学模型来分析不同延迟，奖励幅度和各个参数的选择模式。在更广泛的影响方面，这项研究将使希望通过更好地了解短期诱惑与长期利益之间的冲突来促进自我调节的公众和从业人员受益。它在各种领域具有影响，例如退休计划，成瘾治疗，健康行为改变和拖延。