Spring Land Surface and Subsurface Temperature Anomalies and Subsequent Downstream Late Spring-Summer Droughts/Floods in North America and East Asia

北美和东亚春季陆地表面和地下温度异常以及随后的下游春夏末干旱/洪水

• 批准号: 1849654
• 负责人: Yongkang Xue
• 金额: $ 68.82万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-06-15 至 2024-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1849654&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Spring; Land; Surface; Subsurface; Temperature

Episodes of extreme events, such as droughts and floods, can have serious societal, agricultural, economic, and ecological impacts. Basin-wide tropical sea surface temperature anomalies are known to play a major role in causing these extreme events. The linkage of these extreme hydrological events to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies allows us to predict them with useful skill at a long lead time in advance ranging from few months to few years. This project aims to explore the idea for the first time to utilize the information of spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature anomalies over the western high elevation areas in North America and East Asia for the prediction of late spring/summer droughts or floods over the eastern part of the continents. The results from this research would be useful for the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction community. This project is a direct response to the new initiative "Impact of initialized land temperature and snowpack on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction" recently developed by the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Program, which involves more than 30 institutions worldwide. Findings of this NSF project should provide valuable information to the GEWEX community. Knowledge gained in this research will be disseminated through classroom teaching, short course training classes as well as the GEWEX initiative. Unlike predictions using sea surface temperature, which uses sea surface temperature as a lower boundary condition for atmospheric models, the PI will use the information of spring land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies as initial conditions in the land component of coupled climate models. The main hypothesis is that LST and SUBT anomalies in early Spring hold the information about the abundance of water locked in frozen ground (i.e., the amount of snow/ice on the ground and in the frozen surface layer below) to be melted in later Spring and early Summer. The more snow/ice on the ground and in the frozen surface layer below is, the longer the seasonal transition from Spring to Summer is. The timing of such seasonal transition over high elevation areas in the west plays an important role in setting up the circulation pattern downstream over the low elevation areas in the east. The strength as well as length of its interactions with the circulation pattern over the low elevation areas controlled by land-ocean temperature contrast would affect the occurrence of droughts or floods in late spring/summer over the eastern part of the continents. The research will run various numerical simulations using global and regional models under different climate and weather conditions (i) to understand the mechanisms for the downstream influences of LST/SUBT anomalies, (ii) to compare their effects with SST anomalies, (iii) to identify and distinguish roles of snow and soil moisture in contributing to soil memory and preserving the LST/SUBT anomalies, and (iv) to explore characteristics of soil layer memory and LST/SUBT anomalies and the causes of the spring LST/SUBT anomalies. The project will also develop a new SUBT initialization methodology for operational models to better utilize SUBT information for sub-seasonal/seasonal forecasts in spring/summer seasons.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

极端事件的事件（例如干旱和洪水）可能会产生严重的社会，农业，经济和生态影响。 众所周知，盆地范围内的热带海面温度异常在引起这些极端事件方面起着重要作用。这些极端的水文事件与热带海面温度异常的联系使我们能够在长时间的时间内用有用的技能预测它们，从几个月到几年。该项目旨在首次探索该想法，以利用北美和东亚西部高海拔地区的春季地面温度/地下温度异常的信息，以预测春季/夏季干旱或大陆东部的洪水。这项研究的结果对于季节到季节性预测界很有用。该项目是对新计划“初始化的土地温度和积雪对亚季节至季节性预测的影响”的直接回应。 该NSF项目的发现应为GEWEX社区提供有价值的信息。这项研究中获得的知识将通过课堂教学，短期课程培训课程以及GEWEX倡议来传播。与使用海面温度的预测（将海面温度用作大气模型的下边界条件）不同，PI将使用春季地面温度（LST）和地下温度（SubT）异常的信息作为耦合气候模型的土地成分的初始条件。主要的假设是，早春的LST和Subt异常持有有关锁在冷冻地面上的丰度（即，下面和下面的冷冻表面层中的雪/冰量）在春季和初夏融化。地面上的雪/冰和下面的冷冻表面层的越多，从春季到夏季的季节性过渡的时间越长。这种季节性过渡在西部高海拔地区的时机在在东部低海拔地区下游建立循环模式方面发挥了重要作用。 其与陆地温度对比控制的低海拔区域上与循环模式的相互作用的强度以及长度会影响春季/夏末在大陆东部的春季晚期或洪水的发生。 The research will run various numerical simulations using global and regional models under different climate and weather conditions (i) to understand the mechanisms for the downstream influences of LST/SUBT anomalies, (ii) to compare their effects with SST anomalies, (iii) to identify and distinguish roles of snow and soil moisture in contributing to soil memory and preserving the LST/SUBT anomalies, and (iv) to explore characteristics of soil layer内存和LST/Subt异常以及弹簧LST/SUBT异常的原因。该项目还将为运营模型开发一种新的SubT初始化方法，以更好地利用春季/夏季季节的亚季节/季节性预测来利用SubT信息。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的审查标准通过评估来通过评估来支持的。

项目成果

Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): organization and experimental design

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021
• 发表时间: 2021-07
• 期刊: Geoscientific Model Development
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: Y. Xue;T. Yao;A. Boone;I. Diallo;Ye Liu;X. Zeng;W. Lau;S. Sugimoto;Q. Tang;Xiaoduo Pan;P. J. Oevelen;D. Klocke;Myung‐Seo Koo;Zhaohui Lin;Y. Takaya;Tomonori Sato;C. Ardilouze;S. Saha;Mei Zhao;Xin‐Zhong Liang;F. Vitart;Xin Li;P. Zhao;D. Neelin;W. Guo;Miao Yu;Y. Qian;S. Shen;Yang Zhang;Kun Yang;R. Leung;Jing Yang;Yuan Qiu;M. Brunke;S. Chou;M. Ek;T. Fan;H. Guan;Hai Lin;S. Liang;S. Materia;Tetsu Nakamura;Xin Qi;Retish Senan;C. Shi;Hailan Wang;Helin Wei;S. Xie;Haoran Xu;Hongliang Zhang;Yanling Zhan;Weiping Li;Xueli Shi;P. Nobre;Yi Qin;J. Dozier;C. Ferguson;G. Balsamo;Q. Bao;Jinming Feng;Jinkyu Hong;Songyoul Hong;Huilin Huang;D. Ji;Zhenming Ji;Shi-chang Kang;Yanluan Lin;Weiguang Liu;R. Muncaster;Yan Pan;D. Peano;P. Rosnay;Hiroshi G. Takahashi;Jianping Tang;G. Wang;Shuyu Wang;Weicai Wang;Xu Zhou;Yuejian Zhu

Modeling long-term fire impact on ecosystem characteristics and surface energy using a process-based vegetation–fire model SSiB4/TRIFFID-Fire v1.0

使用基于过程的植被火灾模型 SSiB4/TRIFFID-Fire v1.0 模拟火灾对生态系统特征和地表能量的长期影响

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-6029-2020
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Geoscientific Model Development
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: Huang, Huilin;Xue, Yongkang;Li, Fang;Liu, Ye
• 通讯作者: Liu, Ye

Quantifying the major drivers for the expanding lakes in the interior Tibetan Plateau

量化青藏高原内陆湖泊扩张的主要驱动因素

• DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2021.11.010
• 期刊: Science Bulletin
• 影响因子: 18.9
• 作者: Jing Zhou;Lei Wang;Xiaoyang Zhong;T;ong Yao;Jia Qi;Yuanwei Wang;Yongkang Xue
• 通讯作者: Yongkang Xue

Effects of spring Tibetan Plateau land temperature anomalies on early summer floods/droughts over the monsoon regions of South East Asia

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-06053-8
• 发表时间: 2022-01
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: I. Diallo;Y. Xue;Qiu-shi Chen;X. Ren;W. Guo

An assessment of potential climate impact during 1948–2010 using historical land use land cover change maps

使用历史土地利用土地覆盖变化图评估 1948 年至 2010 年期间的潜在气候影响

• DOI: 10.1002/joc.6621
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: International Journal of Climatology
• 作者: Chilukoti, Nagaraju;Xue, Yongkang
• 通讯作者: Xue, Yongkang