RAPID: An interdisciplinary study of winds, surge, damage, risk analysis and psychosocial response before and after Hurricane Irma

RAPID：对飓风艾尔玛前后的风、浪涌、损害、风险分析和心理社会反应的跨学科研究

• 批准号: 1811883
• 负责人: Gabrielle Wong-Parodi
• 金额: $ 16.02万
• 依托单位: Carnegie-Mellon University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-01-15 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1811883&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; interdisciplinary; study; winds; surge

Hurricanes rank among the most damaging natural hazards affecting the United States, the worst of which (e.g. Galveston 1900, Andrew 1992, Katrina 2005) caused some of the highest U.S. death tolls and insured dollar losses of any natural disaster. Given estimates of $83 billion in economic losses, Hurricane Irma will likely join this list. Hurricanes threaten the sustainability of entire communities: recovery is often slow or incomplete, residents may be permanently displaced, and physical destruction may cause long-term economic hardship. Human losses, including mental and physical health outcomes, may be affected by structural damage to the community and by individual- and community-level choices made before, during and after the hurricane reaches land. Yet many deleterious consequences of hurricanes may be mitigated through more effective and appropriately targeted evacuation efforts, improved decision making, and building codes/practices. Prior research suggests that human responses to hurricanes are influenced by variability in storm exposure, demographics, prior evacuation behavior, and type and perceived trustworthiness of disaster messaging. Moreover, real-time perceptions of risk may be related to actual wind and storm surge conditions and ongoing evolving damage to infrastructure, as well as to how these events are communicated. The investigators in this project have been at the forefront of developing and maintaining a sample (with prior NSF support) of Florida residents, including both pre- and post-Irma mental, physical, psychological and behavioral responses. This project examines how physical indicators of the storm and media exposure interact and influence those responses. To facilitate future mitigation efforts in places vulnerable to hurricanes and other hazards, gaining an integrated understanding of the physical nature of, and human responses to, these devastating storms is critical.In this project, an interdisciplinary team of investigators leverages a recent NSF RAPID-funded survey of a representative sample of Florida residents in the 3 days before Hurricane Irma made landfall across the State of Florida and again a few weeks after the storm passed. The team examines the role played by the physical parameters of the storm (wind, surge, damage) and media communications in understanding psychological and behavioral responses to the hurricane. The investigators collect relevant time-stamped physical and media data in places where the sample resided in the days leading up to and after Hurricane Irma made landfall. The researchers explore three questions: 1) What are the effects of spatially- and temporally-varying winds and surge that result in varying and evolving damage on the evolving perception and decisions made by people affected by these physical inputs? 2) What proportion of individual variability in pre-storm risk perceptions, decisions, and distress levels are accounted for by these physical inputs compared to respondents' personal histories, exposure to previous risks, exposure to evolving media communications, and other non-meteorological, non-damage factors? and, 3) To what extent is variability in the post-hurricane response a function of the decision to evacuate, exposure to evolving media communications, or other psychosocial variables, as compared to physical parameters of the storm? Results will inform decision making about the allocation of resources for disaster preparation, mobilization, and recovery, as well as provide emergency managers and other officials with insight into how to improve responses to future severe weather events. The integration of physical parameters, media, and human response data leads to increased sustainability of at-risk communities, while also informing theories and policies relevant to other natural disasters.

飓风是影响美国的最具破坏性的自然灾害之一，其中最严重的飓风（例如 1900 年的加尔维斯顿飓风、1992 年的安德鲁飓风、2005 年的卡特里娜飓风）造成了美国死亡人数最高的自然灾害，并造成了任何自然灾害的美元损失。鉴于预计造成 830 亿美元的经济损失，飓风艾尔玛很可能会加入此名单。飓风威胁到整个社区的可持续性：恢复往往缓慢或不完全，居民可能永久流离失所，物质破坏可能导致长期经济困难。人类损失，包括精神和身体健康结果，可能会受到社区结构性破坏以及飓风登陆之前、期间和之后做出的个人和社区层面选择的影响。然而，通过更有效和更有针对性的疏散工作、改进决策和建筑规范/实践，可以减轻飓风的许多有害后果。先前的研究表明，人类对飓风的反应受到风暴暴露、人口统计、之前的疏散行为以及灾难信息的类型和感知可信度的变化的影响。此外，对风险的实时感知可能与实际的风和风暴潮状况以及对基础设施不断变化的损害以及这些事件的传达方式有关。该项目的研究人员一直处于开发和维护佛罗里达州居民样本（之前得到 NSF 支持）的最前沿，包括艾玛前后的精神、身体、心理和行为反应。该项目研究了风暴的物理指标和媒体曝光如何相互作用并影响这些反应。为了促进未来易受飓风和其他灾害影响的地区的缓解工作，全面了解这些毁灭性风暴的物理性质以及人类对这些毁灭性风暴的反应至关重要。在这个项目中，一个跨学科的研究小组利用了最近的 NSF RAPID-资助了飓风艾尔玛登陆佛罗里达州前 3 天以及风暴过去几周后对佛罗里达州居民代表性样本的调查。该团队研究了风暴的物理参数（风、浪涌、损害）和媒体传播在了解飓风的心理和行为反应方面所发挥的作用。调查人员在飓风艾尔玛登陆之前和之后的几天内样本所在的地方收集了带有时间戳的相关物理和媒体数据。研究人员探讨了三个问题：1）空间和时间上变化的风和浪涌会产生哪些影响，这些影响会对受这些物理输入影响的人们不断变化的感知和决策造成不同和不断演变的损害？ 2) 与受访者的个人历史、以往风险暴露情况、不断变化的媒体传播情况以及其他非气象因素相比，这些物理输入在风暴前风险感知、决策和痛苦水平中所占的个体差异比例是多少？非破坏因素？ 3) 与风暴的物理参数相比，飓风后反应的变化在多大程度上取决于疏散决定、不断变化的媒体传播或其他心理社会变量？结果将为灾难准备、动员和恢复的资源分配决策提供信息，并为应急管理人员和其他官员提供有关如何改进对未来恶劣天气事件的响应的见解。物理参数、媒体和人类反应数据的整合可以提高高危社区的可持续性，同时也为与其他自然灾害相关的理论和政策提供信息。