RAPID: An interdisciplinary study of winds, surge, damage, risk analysis and psychosocial response before and after Hurricane Irma

RAPID：对飓风艾尔玛前后的风、浪涌、损害、风险分析和心理社会反应的跨学科研究

• 批准号: 1811883
• 负责人: Gabrielle Wong-Parodi
• 金额: $ 16.02万
• 依托单位: Carnegie-Mellon University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-01-15 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1811883&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; interdisciplinary; study; winds; surge

Hurricanes rank among the most damaging natural hazards affecting the United States, the worst of which (e.g. Galveston 1900, Andrew 1992, Katrina 2005) caused some of the highest U.S. death tolls and insured dollar losses of any natural disaster. Given estimates of $83 billion in economic losses, Hurricane Irma will likely join this list. Hurricanes threaten the sustainability of entire communities: recovery is often slow or incomplete, residents may be permanently displaced, and physical destruction may cause long-term economic hardship. Human losses, including mental and physical health outcomes, may be affected by structural damage to the community and by individual- and community-level choices made before, during and after the hurricane reaches land. Yet many deleterious consequences of hurricanes may be mitigated through more effective and appropriately targeted evacuation efforts, improved decision making, and building codes/practices. Prior research suggests that human responses to hurricanes are influenced by variability in storm exposure, demographics, prior evacuation behavior, and type and perceived trustworthiness of disaster messaging. Moreover, real-time perceptions of risk may be related to actual wind and storm surge conditions and ongoing evolving damage to infrastructure, as well as to how these events are communicated. The investigators in this project have been at the forefront of developing and maintaining a sample (with prior NSF support) of Florida residents, including both pre- and post-Irma mental, physical, psychological and behavioral responses. This project examines how physical indicators of the storm and media exposure interact and influence those responses. To facilitate future mitigation efforts in places vulnerable to hurricanes and other hazards, gaining an integrated understanding of the physical nature of, and human responses to, these devastating storms is critical.In this project, an interdisciplinary team of investigators leverages a recent NSF RAPID-funded survey of a representative sample of Florida residents in the 3 days before Hurricane Irma made landfall across the State of Florida and again a few weeks after the storm passed. The team examines the role played by the physical parameters of the storm (wind, surge, damage) and media communications in understanding psychological and behavioral responses to the hurricane. The investigators collect relevant time-stamped physical and media data in places where the sample resided in the days leading up to and after Hurricane Irma made landfall. The researchers explore three questions: 1) What are the effects of spatially- and temporally-varying winds and surge that result in varying and evolving damage on the evolving perception and decisions made by people affected by these physical inputs? 2) What proportion of individual variability in pre-storm risk perceptions, decisions, and distress levels are accounted for by these physical inputs compared to respondents' personal histories, exposure to previous risks, exposure to evolving media communications, and other non-meteorological, non-damage factors? and, 3) To what extent is variability in the post-hurricane response a function of the decision to evacuate, exposure to evolving media communications, or other psychosocial variables, as compared to physical parameters of the storm? Results will inform decision making about the allocation of resources for disaster preparation, mobilization, and recovery, as well as provide emergency managers and other officials with insight into how to improve responses to future severe weather events. The integration of physical parameters, media, and human response data leads to increased sustainability of at-risk communities, while also informing theories and policies relevant to other natural disasters.

飓风列为影响美国的最具破坏性的自然危害之一，其中最糟糕的是（例如Galveston 1900，Andrew 1992，Katrina，2005年）造成了一些美国最高的死亡人数和任何自然灾害的美元损失。鉴于估计经济损失为830亿美元，艾尔玛飓风可能会加入这一清单。飓风威胁着整个社区的可持续性：恢复通常是缓慢或不完整的，居民可能会永久流离失所，并且身体破坏可能会造成长期的经济困难。人类损失，包括精神和身体健康成果，可能会受到对社区的结构损害，以及飓风到达土地之前，期间和之后做出的个人和社区水平的选择。然而，通过更有效和适当的疏散工作，改进决策和建筑法规/实践，可以减轻飓风的许多有害后果。先前的研究表明，人类对飓风的反应受到暴风雨暴露，人口统计，事先撤离行为以及灾难消息的类型和可感知的可信度的影响。此外，对风险的实时看法可能与实际风和风暴潮状况以及对基础设施的持续不断发展的损害以及如何传达这些事件有关。该项目中的研究人员一直处于开发和维护佛罗里达居民的样本（以前的NSF支持）的最前沿，包括前MERMA的心理，身体，心理和行为反应。该项目研究了风暴和媒体暴露的物理指标如何相互作用和影响这些反应。为了促进在容易受到飓风和其他危害危害的地方的未来缓解工作，对这些毁灭性的暴风雨的身体本质和人类反应的综合理解至关重要。在这个项目中，一个跨学科的调查人员团队利用了NSF最近的NSF快速资助的NSF迅速调查，这是对驾驶员的群体造成的，这是在遭受暴风雨中的一场驾驶范围内的驾驶范围，这是一个较少的驾驶群体，这些调查是遭受狂热的群体的飞行。该团队研究了风暴的物理参数（风，激增，伤害）和媒体通信在理解对飓风的心理和行为反应中所起的作用。研究人员收集相关的时间戳记的物理和媒体数据，在飓风Irma登陆之前和之后的样本居住的地方。研究人员探讨了三个问题：1）在空间和时间变化的风与涌动会导致对不断发展的感知以及受这些物理投入影响的人们所做的决定的损害变化和不断发展的影响？ 2）与受访者的个人历史，以前的风险接触，对不断发展的媒体沟通的暴露以及其他非现役，非污染因素相比，这些物理投入的个人变异性的比例是在风险风险感知，决策和困扰水平上的哪些比例？ 3）与风暴的物理参数相比，赫鲁里卡后反应的变异性在多大程度上是撤离，暴露于不断发展的媒体通信或其他社会心理变量的决定的函数？结果将为灾难准备，动员和恢复资源的分配提供依据，并为应急管理人员和其他官员提供有关如何改善对未来恶劣天气事件的反应的信息。物理参数，媒体和人类反应数据的整合导致高危社区的可持续性提高，同时也告知与其他自然灾害有关的理论和政策。