P2C2: Spatiotemporal Variability in Western United States Snowpack During the Common Era

P2C2：公元元年美国西部积雪的时空变化

• 批准号: 1803995
• 负责人: Kevin Anchukaitis
• 金额: $ 39.71万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1803995&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Spatiotemporal; Variability; Western; United

Annual snowpack and snow meltwater supplies have deteriorated across the western United States since 1950. While climate projections indicate these trends will continue throughout the 21st century, short instrumental snow records prevent an assessment of whether these recent declines fall outside the natural range of long-term snowpack variability or if they are exceptional relative to prior centuries. A lack of long snow observations also makes it difficult to identify and characterize decadal-scale and longer-term climatic drivers of annual snow accumulation, changes in those drivers over time and space, and the magnitude of internal variability in the snow system. Yet information at these timescales are most important for effective climate change adaptation. To address these critical knowledge gaps, this project will develop gridded spatial field reconstructions of snow water equivalent spanning the western United States that explicitly capture the period of negative snow trend within model calibrations using tree rings. The researchers aim to test the ability of climate models to simulate the range of forced and internal snow hydroclimate variability in western United States over the last millennium.The potential Broader Impacts include the generation of long Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) tree ring chronologies to test different hypotheses of environmental forcing on the pre-industrial timescales and their comparison with last millennium climate model output; the testing of a possible anthropogenic fingerprint on changes in SWE over the last thirty years relative to pre-Industrial forcing and the possible implications for water resource management in the future; and support of an early-career scientist who has helped pioneer the tree-ring SWE discipline. The project also supports an undergraduate student, a post-doctoral research scientist, and outreach to water resource managers in Western North America.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

自1950年以来，一年一度的积雪和雪熔水供应在整个美国西部都恶化。虽然气候预测表明这些趋势将在整个21世纪继续进行，但短期的工具雪记录阻止了对这些最近的下降的评估是否超出了长期自然范围积雪变异性或相对于前几个世纪而异常。 缺乏长雪的观测也使得很难识别和表征年代积雪的年代阶段和长期的气候驱动因素，这些驱动因素随时间和空间的变化以及雪系统中内部变异性的幅度。然而，这些时间表上的信息对于有效的气候变化适应至关重要。为了解决这些关键的知识差距，该项目将在跨美国西部的雪水等效物中发展出栅栏的空间田间重建，从而明确捕获使用树环模型校准内的负雪趋势时期。 研究人员的目的是测试气候模型在上一千年中模拟美国西部强迫和内部雪地气候变异性范围的能力。潜在的更广泛的影响包括生成长雪水等效物（SWE）树环的生成在工业前的时间表上的环境强迫及其与上一千年气候模型输出的比较；相对于工业前强迫，过去三十年来，对SWE变化的可能人为指纹的测试以及未来对水资源管理的可能影响；并支持了一位早期的科学家，他帮助开拓了树环SWE学科。该项目还支持一名本科生，博士后研究科学家，并支持北美西部的水资源经理的宣传。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评论来评估的。标准。

项目成果

Dendroclimatology of Yellow-Cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis) and Temperature Variability on the Western Slopes of the North Cascades in Washington State, USA, from 1333 to 2015 CE

• DOI: 10.3959/2021-20
• 发表时间: 2022-07
• 期刊: Tree-Ring Research
• 影响因子: 1.6
• 作者: Christopher A. Trinies;A. Bunn;C. Robertson;K. Anchukaitis

Snowpack signals in North American tree rings

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd5de
• 发表时间: 2021-03
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Bethany L Coulthard;K. Anchukaitis;G. Pederson;E. Cook;J. Littell;Dan Smith

The Severity of the 2014–2015 Snow Drought in the Oregon Cascades in a Multicentury Context

多世纪背景下俄勒冈州喀斯喀特 2014 年至 2015 年雪旱的严重程度

• DOI: 10.1029/2022wr032875
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Dye, Laura A.;Coulthard, Bethany L.;Hatchett, Benjamin J.;Homfeld, Inga K.;Salazar, Taylor N.;Littell, Jeremy S.;Anchukaitis, Kevin J.
• 通讯作者: Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

• DOI: 10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1
• 发表时间: 2022-10-04
• 期刊: NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
• 影响因子: 42.1
• 作者: Cook, Benjamin I.;Smerdon, Jason E.;Wise, Erika K.
• 通讯作者: Wise, Erika K.

Tree Rings and Observations Suggest No Stable Cycles in Sierra Nevada Cool‐Season Precipitation

树木年轮和观测表明内华达山脉凉爽季节降水没有稳定的周期

• DOI: 10.1029/2020wr028599
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Williams, A. P.;Anchukaitis, K. J.;Woodhouse, C. A.;Meko, D. M.;Cook, B. I.;Bolles, K.;Cook, E. R.
• 通讯作者: Cook, E. R.