P2C2: Collaborative Research: Past Ocean-Atmosphere Variability from Spatiotemporal Patterns of North Atlantic Climate During the Common Era

P2C2：合作研究：公元纪元北大西洋气候时空模式的过去海洋-大气变化

• 批准号: 1502224
• 负责人: Edward Cook
• 金额: $ 41.64万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-07-01 至 2019-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1502224&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Collaborative; Research; Past; Ocean

The climate of the North Atlantic profoundly impacts human populations and ecosystems in adjacent North America and Europe. It is anticipated that this project will help improve understanding of the nature and causes of decadal- and multi-decadal scale climate variability and its spatiotemporal patterns for the North Atlantic sector for modeling and predictive purposes. An enhanced understanding of internal climate system variability at this time scale is critical for decadal-scale prediction, as well as robust detection and attribution of the anthropogenic component of regional and global temperature trends. This award will support early research experiences for students through an ongoing student internship program at Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory and co-operative and Guest student programs at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). The researchers will utilize the newest version of the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA, representing Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East) and an updated and fully compatible version of the North Atlantic Drought Atlas (NADA) in analyses designed to identify coupled modes of summer hydro-climate variability between continents on opposite sides of the North Atlantic Basin. This will be accomplished using multivariate tools including singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify simple time domain coupled modes. The existence of band-limited phase-coherent modes will also be investigated using the Multiple Taper Method with Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD), a frequency domain technique. The research team seeks to identify the likely causes of the identified coupled modes in the drought atlases by comparing the projection coefficients of those modes against fields of climate data covering the North Atlantic Basin and for more extensive global regions (e.g., sea-level pressure or SLP, sea surface temperature or SST). The research team will project the identified forcings back to medieval times using the extended records of summer hydro-climate provided by the OWDA and NADA to produce first-order estimates of how the identified climate forcings have varied and changed over the past millennium; andFurthermore, the researchers will compare the millennium-length climate forcing projections of the OWDA/NADA coupled modes against relevant climate fields and their characteristic modes of variability from the suite of CMIP3/CMIP5 coupled climate model runs to determine the degree to which data and models agree.

北大西洋的气候对北美和欧洲相邻的人群和生态系统产生深远影响。可以预料，该项目将有助于提高对年代和多年尺度气候变异性的性质和原因的理解，以及其用于建模和预测目的的北大西洋部门的时空模式。在此时间尺度上，人们对内部气候系统变异性的增强对十年级预测至关重要，并且对区域和全球温度趋势的人为成分的可靠检测和归因。该奖项将通过在Lamont Doherty Earth天文台进行的持续学生实习计划以及伍兹霍尔海洋学机构（WHOI）的合作和客座学生计划来支持学生的早期研究经验。 研究人员将利用旧世界的干旱地图集（OWDA，代表欧洲，北非和中东），并在旨在识别北大西洋群落的夏季水力气候变化模式的分析中，是北大西洋干旱的北大西洋干旱地图集（NADA）的更新且完全兼容的版本。这将使用包括单数值分解（SVD）在内的多元工具来实现，以识别简单的时域耦合模式。还将使用具有奇异值分解（MTM-SVD）（频域技术）的多个锥度方法来研究带限制的相位相互关系模式的存在。研究小组试图通过比较这些模式的投影系数与涵盖北大西洋盆地和更广泛的全球地区（例如，海平面压力或SLP，海面温度或SST）的气候数据领域的投影系数，以确定干旱地图集中确定的耦合模式的可能原因。 研究小组将使用OWDA和NADA提供的夏季水力气候的扩展记录将确定的强迫归还到中世纪，以产生一阶估计，以估计确定的气候强迫在过去的千年中如何变化和变化；和furthermore，研究人员将比较OWDA/NADA耦合模式的千年长度强迫预测与相关气候领域及其特征性的可变性模式，从CMIP3/CMIP5的套件偶联的气候模型运行以确定数据和模型所需的程度。