RAPID: Hurricane Irma: Effects of repeated severe storms on shallow Caribbean reefs and their changing ecological resilience

RAPID：飓风艾尔玛：反复发生的严重风暴对加勒比浅海珊瑚礁的影响及其不断变化的生态恢复力

基本信息

批准号：
1801335
负责人：
Peter Edmunds
金额：
$ 7.33万
依托单位：
The University Corporation, Northridge
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-11-15 至 2019-04-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1801335&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
RAPID Hurricane Irma Effects repeated

项目摘要

Coral reefs have long been recognized for their diversity, and unique functional roles, but these features have been undermined by decades of disturbances that cast doubt on their ability to survive. Against this backdrop, 2017 brought two hurricanes of unprecedented magnitude to the Caribbean, both of which damaged coral reefs that already were degraded compared to those of a few decades ago. While the impacts of these storms on some of the few coral reefs protected within the US National Park and National Monument systems is particularly unfortunate, it also creates unique opportunities to understand the impacts on coral reefs that have been studied in detail for decades. This project builds on these opportunities by leveraging 31 years of coral reef monitoring research, much of which has been supported by NSF, to describe the impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on coral reefs in St. John, US Virgin Islands. That the analyses will reveal severe destruction is a forgone conclusion, but what remains unknown is how present-day reefs will respond to severe versions of a well-known disturbance (hurricanes), and how these effects will impact their long-term survival. Post-storm surveys and new analyses will be used to determine whether ongoing declines in coral abundance have influenced the way coral reefs respond to storms, notably to enhance post-storm mortality, and reduce the capacity to recover from such event. To achieve these outcomes, a team of researchers from California State University, Northridge, will use a cruise on the R/V Walton Smith to survey the reefs of St. John using photography and in-water counts to generate data that will be analyzed throughout 2018. The benefits of this research will extend beyond scientific discoveries to include leveraged support for other scientists participating in the cruise, evaluation of the status of natural resources in the VI National Park, the delivery of relief supplies from Miami to St. John, and the creation of unique research and training opportunities for graduate students who will participate in all phases of the project. Coral reefs have undergone dramatic changes in community structure since they were first described in the 1950's, and the current onslaught of threats from rising temperature, declining seawater pH, storms, and numerous other events has cast doubt on their persistence in the Athropocene. With such profound changes underway, time-series analyses of community structure are on the cutting edge of contemporary studies of coral reefs. In the Caribbean, the impact of two category 5 hurricanes underscores why time-series are important, as they are the only means to describe the impact of such events, and critically, create the context for testing hypotheses regarding impacts and consequences of disturbances. This project addresses the impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on the coral reefs of St. John, US Virgin Islands, which have been studied since the 1950's, and for the last 31 years largely with NSF LTREB support. This support provides descriptions of the population dynamics of the important coral, Orbicella annularis, and the coral community dynamics in adjacent habitats. Any study of the effects of these storms will demonstrate that large waves kill corals, but here intellectual merit is acquired through testing of general hypotheses: (1) storm impacts on O. annularis will be colony-density dependent, (2) delayed coral mortality will be accentuated compared to previous storms, (3) the resilience of coral communities to physical disturbances has declined since 1989, and (4) evolutionary rescue will mediate reef recovery for select corals through large initial population sizes, density-dependent population growth, and recruitment. These hypotheses will be tested using a 14 day cruise on the R/V Walton Smith to collect critical time-sensitive data, followed by a year of analysis of new and legacy photographic data.

长期以来，珊瑚礁因其多样性和独特的功能作用而被认可，但是这些特征因数十年的骚乱而损害了这些特征，这些干扰对其生存的能力产生了怀疑。在这种背景下，2017年为加勒比地区带来了两次前所未有的飓风，这两种飓风都损坏了已经损害的珊瑚礁，与几十年前的珊瑚礁相比。尽管这些风暴对美国国家公园和国家纪念碑系统中受保护的少数几个珊瑚礁的影响尤其不幸，但它也创造了独特的机会，以了解数十年来详细研究的对珊瑚礁的影响。该项目以这些机会为基础，利用31年的珊瑚礁监测研究，其中大部分得到了NSF的支持，以描述艾尔玛飓风和玛丽亚对美国维尔京群岛圣约翰珊瑚礁的影响。分析将揭示严重破坏是一个宽恕的结论，但尚不清楚的是，当今的礁石将如何应对众所周知的骚乱（飓风）的严重版本，以及这些影响将如何影响其长期生存。传风后的调查和新分析将用于确定珊瑚礁珊瑚礁对风暴的反应方式，特别是为了增强后死亡的死亡率，并降低了从这种事件中恢复的能力。为了实现这些结果，来自加利福尼亚州立大学诺斯里奇大学的一组研究人员将使用R/V沃尔顿·史密斯（R/V Walton Smith）进行巡游来调查圣约翰礁石的礁从迈阿密到圣约翰，以及将为参与项目各个阶段的研究生创造独特的研究和培训机会。珊瑚礁自1950年代首次描述以来，社区结构发生了巨大变化，目前对温度上升，海水pH值下降，风暴和其他许多事件的威胁的冲击使他们对它们在人类新近世的持久性产生了怀疑。随着如此深刻的变化，社区结构的时间序列分析正处于当代珊瑚礁研究的最前沿。在加勒比海地区，两类5飓风的影响强调了为什么时间序列很重要的原因，因为它们是描述此类事件影响的唯一手段，并批判性地为测试假设进行有关干扰影响和后果的假设创造了背景。该项目涉及艾尔玛飓风和玛丽亚对美国维尔京群岛圣约翰珊瑚礁的影响，这些岛屿自1950年代以来就已经进行了研究，在过去的31年中，NSF LTREB支持很大程度上。这种支持提供了重要的珊瑚，奥比塞拉·安纳拉利斯和相邻栖息地的珊瑚群落动态的描述。对这些风暴影响的任何研究都将证明大浪杀死珊瑚，但是通过测试一般假设来获得智力优点：（1）风暴对O. Annularis的影响将是殖民地密度依赖性的，（2）与先前的风暴相比，延迟的珊瑚阶段会延迟依赖于先前的暴风雨，（3）以来的核心恢复，（3）1989年，（3）1989年，（3）499通过较大的初始人口大小，密度依赖人口增长和招募，适用于精选的珊瑚。这些假设将在R/V Walton Smith上进行14天的巡游测试，以收集关键的时间敏感数据，然后对新的和旧的摄影数据进行一年的分析。