Pacific Decadal Variability: Modulation of Global- to Regional-scale Climate over the Last Millennium

太平洋年代际变率：过去千年全球到区域尺度气候的调节

基本信息

批准号：
1744067
负责人：
Ellen Mosley-Thompson
金额：
$ 22.58万
依托单位：
Ohio State University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-03-15 至 2022-02-28
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1744067&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Pacific Decadal Variability Modulation Global

项目摘要

This project will use climate model simulations to assist the paleoclimate community with the interpretation of ice core records and provide a valuable, basin-wide paleo history of Pacific climate variability which will be made available to the broader scientific community. Results from this work are expected to reveal how the interactive effects between the underlying background state of the Pacific and individual El Niño/La Niña events have changed over the longer context of Earth's climate history. Thus, enhanced knowledge of Pacific decadal variability and its historical effects on both global and regional climate will help guide precautionary efforts taken to ameliorate their anticipated economic and societal impacts in the future. This team of researchers continuously and consistently disseminate their research results through the Education and Outreach Program at The Ohio State University's Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, dedicated to providing climate information to students, the public and policymakers at all levels. In addition, this project provides support, training, and mentoring for a female postdoctoral researcher representing the next generation of the scientists in this field.Pacific Ocean surface temperatures oscillate between warm and cold phases every few decades, and these multi-decadal shifts in the background state of the Pacific Ocean affect both regional and global climate. On the regional scale, the underlying warm or cold background state of the Pacific Ocean modulates how individual El Niño/La Niña events affect temperature and precipitation in specific areas. To better predict the impacts of El Niño events on global climate, it is essential to know the background state of the Pacific Ocean. However, our current understanding of this behavior is limited due to relatively short modern instrument observational records. Thus, other methods, such as modeling and/or the use of paleoclimate proxy data, are often used to define Pacific Ocean temperatures prior to the instrumental period. The key goal of this project is to establish a history of Pacific decadal variability and its global climatic influences for the past millennium using a combination of global climate model simulations and readily available ice core records from four different regions around the Pacific Basin. Each ice core provides records of local to global scale climate primarily through annual layer thicknesses (accumulation), stable water isotopic ratios (temperature), and concentrations of both insoluble dust and major anions and cations (atmospheric chemistry). Each record provides distinct insights on precipitation and temperature which will be used to reconstruct the history of basin-wide Pacific variability. The model simulations will serve to improve interpretation of the ice core data and advancing the understanding of underlying mechanisms driving the observed ice core responses to Pacific climate variability. The use of the ice core records also helps evaluate and possibly enhance model capabilities to physically represent critical processes responsible for local climate variability across the Pacific.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目将使用气候模型模拟来帮助古气候社区解释冰核记录，并提供有价值的，盆地范围内的太平洋气候变异性的古历史，将为更广泛的科学界提供。预计这项工作的结果将揭示太平洋基本背景状态与单个厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件之间的互动效应如何在地球气候历史的较长背景下发生了变化。这是对太平洋十年变异性及其对全球和区域气候的历史影响的增强知识，将有助于指导预防措施，以改善未来的经济和社会影响。这个研究人员通过俄亥俄州立大学伯德（Byrd Polar）和气候研究中心的教育和外展计划持续不断地传播他们的研究结果，该计划致力于为学生，公共和政策制定者提供气候信息。此外，该项目为代表该领域的下一代科学家的女性博士后研究人员提供支持，训练和心理化。每隔几十年的温暖和冷阶段之间的太平洋表面温度在温暖和寒冷的阶段之间振荡，而太平洋海洋背景状态的这些多年多年转变都会影响区域和全球气候。在区域尺度上，太平洋调制的潜在温暖或冷背景状态单个厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件如何影响特定区域的温度和精度。为了更好地预测厄尔尼诺事件对全球气候的影响，必须了解太平洋的背景状态至关重要。但是，由于现代仪器观察记录相对较短，我们目前对这种行为的理解受到限制。这是其他方法，例如建模和/或使用古气候代理数据，通常用于在仪器期之前定义太平洋温度。该项目的关键目标是通过全球气候模型模拟以及来自太平洋盆地四个不同地区的全球气候模型模拟和随时可用的ICE核心记录的结合来建立过去千年的太平洋衰落变异史及其在过去千年中的全球气候影响。每个冰芯都提供了局部到全球尺度的记录，首先通过年度层厚度（积累），稳定的水同位素比（温度）以及不溶性灰尘以及主要阴离子和阳离子（大气化学）的浓度。每个记录都提供了对降水和温度的不同见解，这些见解将用于重建盆地范围的太平洋变异性的历史。该模型模拟将有助于改善对冰核数据的解释，并促进对推动观察到的冰核对太平洋气候变异性反应的潜在机制的理解。冰核记录的使用还有助于评估并可能增强模型能力，以物理代表负责整个太平洋地区气候变异性的关键过程。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响来通过评估来获得支持的支持。