Collaborative Proposal: MSB-FRA: Causes, consequences, and cross-scale linkages of environment-driven phenological mismatch across three trophic levels

合作提案：MSB-FRA：三个营养级环境驱动物候不匹配的原因、后果和跨尺度联系

基本信息

批准号：
1702708
负责人：
Allen Hurlbert
金额：
$ 49.79万
依托单位：
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-08-15 至 2022-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1702708&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Proposal MSB FRA Causes

项目摘要

The timing and synchrony of seasonal events presents real challenges in the natural world. Migratory birds coordinate their departure from wintering grounds in Central or South America to arrive at North American breeding grounds at just the right time. Too early and they risk experiencing severe weather from late frosts or blizzards. Too late and they risk missing the peak in early spring insects that they depend on to successfully raise offspring. For their part, insects such as butterflies also benefit when their emergence coincides with the springtime flush of new plant growth. The timing of spring has been shifting earlier in recent years, and this raises the possibility of mismatches in spring timing between birds, insects, and plants. A few local scale studies have suggested that such mismatches may be responsible for long-term population declines for some species, but the extent of this problem, especially over large areas remains unknown. In this project, the research team will combine information on springtime weather, satellite imagery on plant emergence, and multiple large-scale citizen science data on birds, butterflies, and caterpillars to perform a comprehensive evaluation of mismatches in seasonal timing between interacting species. This work is critical for understanding the potential impacts of continued shifts in seasonality on living systems. The work will also engage K-college students and the public through a new citizen science program, educational units, and outreach events focused on learning about the timing of seasonal changes. The proposed research will be the first attempt to examine phenological mismatch across three trophic levels at a semi-continental extent. Local-scale studies have documented specific instances of phenological mismatch but fail to inform how mismatch consequences propagate across spatial, temporal, or trophic scales. Birds and butterflies provide the most expansive, long-term and detailed macroecological data sets on distribution, diversity, and demography. The project will unite multiple large-scale citizen science datasets for these taxa with targeted field data collection, and remotely-sensed climate and vegetation data layers, to examine the cross-scale and multi-trophic interactions that connect shifting thermal environments, phenological mismatch, and fitness consequences. This will be accomplished by: (1) assembling and uniting continental and regional monitoring and citizen-science databases for Lepidoptera and birds; (2) building spatio-temporal models in order to assess drivers of phenology, calculate direct metrics of phenological mismatch across trophic levels, and evaluate fitness and population consequences of those mismatches; and (3) testing the ability of generated models to predict phenology and population trends for focal birds and Lepidoptera across eastern North America as a function of tri-trophic phenological mismatch. Taking a macro-scale perspective on phenological mismatch is critical for understanding the range-wide impacts of sustained trends in seasonal timing. In addition to answering critical research questions on phenological mismatch the team will extend the impacts of their work through both specific training opportunities and broad-based education and outreach efforts.

季节性事件的时机和同步带来了自然界的真正挑战。候鸟协调了它们从中美洲或南美洲的越冬地偏离，以便在正确的时间到达北美繁殖地。太早了，他们有可能因晚期或暴风雪而遭受恶劣天气。为时已晚，他们冒着在早春隔热材料中错过高峰的风险，他们依靠成功提高后代。就它们而言，蝴蝶等昆虫的出现与新植物生长的春季潮流相吻合时也会受益。近年来，春季的时机一直在变化，这增加了鸟类，昆虫和植物之间春季时机不匹配的可能性。一些当地规模的研究表明，这种不匹配可能导致某些物种的长期人口下降，但是这个问题的程度，尤其是在大面积地区仍然未知。该项目，研究团队将结合有关春天天气，植物出现的卫星图像以及有关鸟类，蝴蝶和毛毛虫的多个大规模公民科学数据，以对相互作用物种之间季节性时机的不匹配进行全面评估。这项工作对于理解季节性持续转变对生活系统的潜在影响至关重要。这项工作还将通过新的公民科学计划，教育单位和外展活动与K-College学生和公众吸引，着重于学习季节性变化的时机。拟议的研究将是第一次尝试在半大陆范围内检查三个营养水平的物候不匹配。地方规模的研究已经记录了物候不匹配的特定实例，但未能告知不匹配后果如何在空间，临时或营养量表中传播。鸟类和蝴蝶提供了有关分布，多样性和删除术的最广泛，最长期和详细的宏观生态数据集。该项目将与有针对性的现场数据收集以及遥感的气候和植被数据层结合多个大规模公民科学数据集，以检查连接变化的热环境，物质不匹配和适应性后果的跨尺度和多营养相互作用。这将通过以下方式完成：（1）组装和团结鳞翅目和鸟类的大陆和区域监测以及公民科学数据库；（2）构建时空模型以评估物候驱动因素，计算跨营养水平的物候不匹配的直接指标，并评估这些不匹配的适应性和人口后果；（3）测试生成模型预测北美东部东部的焦点鸟类和鳞翅目的物候和种群趋势的能力，这是三家候位物候不匹配的函数。对物候不匹配的宏观尺度观点对于理解季节性时机持续趋势的范围影响至关重要。除了回答有关物候不匹配的关键研究问题外，团队还将通过特定的培训机会以及基于广泛的教育和外展工作来扩展其工作的影响。