WSC-Category 2, Collaborative: Climate and human dynamics as amplifiers of natural change: a framework for vulnerability assessment and mitigation planning

WSC-类别 2，协作：气候和人类动态作为自然变化的放大器：脆弱性评估和缓解规划的框架

• 批准号: 1642467
• 负责人: Peter Wilcock
• 金额: $ 28.11万
• 依托单位: Utah State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-04-01 至 2017-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1642467&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: WSC; Category; Collaborative; Climate; human

1209448WilcockThere is a pressing need to identify which elements of the coupled natural-human system are most sensitive to changes in land use and climate in the sense that they are likely to respond strongly to changes in these factors. Means of identifying such ?hot spots? of sensitivity to change would allow us to target remediation and other management measures where they will do the most good. This project will test and explore the ecologic and management implications of a novel hypothesis termed human-amplified natural change (HANC), which states that the areas of the landscape that are most susceptible to human, climatic, and other external changes are those undergoing the highest natural rates of change.The research team will develop a theoretical framework for vulnerability assessment and will test the HANC hypothesis through intensive study of the Minnesota River Basin (MRB), a 44,000 km2 agriculturally-dominated watershed in the upper Midwest. The MRB encompasses an extremely broad spectrum of natural and human-induced rates of change and sensitivity to land-use practices. Of particular interest is the complex nonlinear coupling between land use and river network processes, which has already resulted in severely impaired waters for sediment and nutrients. What will be the future condition of the waters and ecosystem services in the MRB under changing human actions and climatic conditions? Of the many potential land and water management options, which are most likely to produce a sustainable, resilient, and thriving coupled economic-environmental system? To answer such questions, this study seeks to:(1) determine the extent to which current high rates of sediment production are concentrated in areas that were undergoing high rates of natural change before the external changes were imposed; (2) study how thresholds and localized features in the system amplify and accelerate change and how such nonlinear effects can be parameterized in an integrated predictive modeling framework; (3) investigate the extent to which the human-amplified natural changes (HANC) in the geomorphic system contribute to observed ecological changes in the MRB; and (4) develop means to include HANC-based reasoning in decision analysis frameworks, including a suite of methods to identify sensitive regions, along with spatially targeted monitoring activities.Broader Impacts: Strong relationships previously developed with State regulatory agencies will ensure that the results from this project directly influence future land and water policy and management decisions. The research team will disseminate new knowledge directly to the public in close collaboration with State agencies via stakeholder meetings, widely attended regional meetings and informational reports. Further, they will develop a HANC-based analytical toolbox for evaluating areas prone to rapid change in the landscape, beginning with Midwestern agricultural landscapes. New knowledge generated from this work will be used to inform Science Museum exhibits related to the Anthropocene, develop innovative K-12 curricula in environmental science and engineering, and disseminate NSF?s Earth Science and Climate Literacy Principles via teacher training. The project supports three early-career PIs and training of graduate, undergraduate, and ?synthesis-postdoctoral? students in an interdisciplinary environment, co-advised by scientists in hydrology, geomorphology, ecology, biology, engineering, and economics.

1209448wilcockthere是一种紧迫的需求，以确定耦合天然人类系统的哪些要素对土地使用和气候的变化最敏感，因为它们很可能对这些因素的变化有强烈反应。识别这样的热点的方法？对变革的敏感性将使我们能够针对他们最大的好处进行补救和其他管理措施。该项目将测试并探索一种称为人类放大自然变化（HANC）的新假设的生态和管理意义，该假设指出，景观面积最容易受到人类，气候和其他外部变化的影响，那些经历了最高自然变化速率的景观。中西部上部有44,000 km2农业主导的流域。 MRB包括大量自然和人类引起的变化率以及对土地利用实践的敏感性。特别令人感兴趣的是土地使用和河流网络工艺之间的复杂非线性耦合，这已经导致沉积物和养分严重受损的水。在不断变化的人类行动和气候条件下，MRB的水域和生态系统服务的未来状况将如何？在许多潜在的土地和水管理方案中，最有可能产生可持续，弹性和繁荣的经济环境系统？ 为了回答此类问题，本研究试图：（1）确定当前高沉积物生产率集中在施加外部变化之前经历高自然变化率的地区； （2）研究系统中的阈值和局部特征如何在集成的预测建模框架中放大和加速变化以及如何将这种非线性效应化为参数； （3）研究地貌系统中人类扩增的自然变化（HANC）的程度有助于观察到的MRB生态变化； （4）开发方法是将基于HANC的推理包括在决策分析框架中，包括一套识别敏感区域的方法以及以空间为目标的监视活动。BROADER的影响：先前与州监管机构建立的牢固关系，确保该项目的结果直接影响未来的土地政策和水政策和管理决策。 研究团队将通过利益相关者会议，广泛参加区域会议和信息报告，直接与州机构密切合作，直接向公众传播新知识。此外，他们将开发一个基于HANC的分析工具箱，以评估容易发生景观的区域，从中西部农业景观开始。这项工作产生的新知识将用于为科学博物馆提供与人类世的展览，开发环境科学和工程学中创新的K-12课程，并通过教师培训传播NSF的地球科学和气候素养原则。 该项目支持三个早期的PIS和研究生，本科生和“合成培训”的培训？在跨学科环境中的学生，由水文学，地貌，生态学，生物学，工程和经济学的科学家共同介绍。