WSC-Category 3 Collaborative: Impacts of Climate Change on the Phenology of Linked Agriculture-Water Systems

WSC-3 类协作：气候变化对相关农业-水系统物候的影响

• 批准号: 1360395
• 负责人: Lisa Wainger
• 金额: $ 76.03万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland Center for Environmental Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2020-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1360395&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: WSC; Category; Collaborative; Impacts; Climate

1360415 (Ball), 1360345 (Brady), 1360424 (Ortiz-Bobea), and 1360395 (Wainger). This research will create an integrated trans-disciplinary system of data-driven econometric and numerical simulation models to test scientific hypotheses on how farmers adapt to climate change and how these altered practices are processed through a watershed to affect downstream estuarine ecosystem health (e.g., water quality, hypoxia). An overarching hypothesis is that climate-induced adaptive changes in agricultural practices and ecosystem processes will cause large indirect phenologic effects that propagate through watersheds to estuary. For this work, the ecological concept of phenology is extended beyond its usual meaning of seasonal life-cycle events (e.g., tree flowering) to seasonal events in water system processes. The project approach involves simultaneous collaborative and integrated activities by three research teams: Economics and Policy, Watershed, and Estuary. The Economics and Policy Team includes agricultural and environmental economists, whose empirical models feed and constrain the simulation models that are to be developed and linked by the Watershed and Estuary Teams. The Chesapeake Water System (CWS) is used as the study site because of its rich and long-term record of data. Synthesis of these data with models will enable comparative analyses to reveal broad relationships between human and natural drivers and processes that extrapolate well to water systems worldwide. This research will advance knowledge of: 1) how climate changes influence the timing and type of agricultural practices; 2) how temporal and spatial scales of watershed models influence simulated effects on nutrient delivery; 3) how direct influences of climate change on ecosystems compare to indirect influences that cascade through the watershed; and 4) how alternative management policies - with different rules and incentives - affect farming behavior and thus ecologic health. The effort will also advance understanding of how best to link economic and policy modeling approaches and scales with those of watershed and estuary simulation, as related to maintaining water system sustainability under climate change. Agricultural models of farmer adaptation will empirically demonstrate how spatial and temporal distributions of practices are altered by climate change, allowing transformation of the modeling approach and improving the observational grounding of the models. Further, this work will advance ability to test policies aimed at managing nutrient emissions from agriculture by characterizing conditions at scales relevant for understanding adoption/compliance. The Watershed Team will use process understanding - synthesized from data across multiple watersheds - to assess structural uncertainties in conventional models that are typically ignored in policy applications. The Estuary Team's data synthesis will search for climate-related shifts in timing and amounts of nutrient loading and use numerical simulation models to quantify effects on Bay health. The Economics and Policy Team will apply a novel state-contingent pollution-control approach that incorporates uncertainty. Through the development and linkage of these models, this project will help transform climate-change impact assessment and response, tackle basic knowledge gaps in the understanding of long-term sustainability of estuarine water systems, and develop new tools and understanding that are applicable to other water bodies influenced by agricultural land use. The areas of broader impact for this project include: 1) workforce recruitment and training; 2) transfer of tools and knowledge to environment management agencies; 3) enhanced public understanding and K-16 science education. In the first regard, the project will recruit, train and mentor 8-12 MS and PhD students toward careers in ecology, economics, hydrology, oceanography and engineering with foci on water quality, agricultural sustainability, environmental policy analysis, and climate change. Secondly, the team will continue to work very closely with investigators in USDA, USEPA, USGS, and other federal and state agencies working with the Chesapeake Bay Program to develop better integrated modeling tools for modeling support of environmental management. Interactions with the Bay management community will include regular meetings with collaborators, presentations of findings at CBP meetings and collaborative workshops. Thirdly, K-16 education will be improved through integration of products into a highly successful ongoing NSF COSEE program, including a new workshop for training 15 high school teachers.

1360415（Ball），1360345（Brady），1360424（Ortiz-Bobea）和1360395（Wainger）。这项研究将创建一个由数据驱动的计量经济学和数值模拟模型的综合跨学科系统，以测试有关农民如何适应气候变化以及如何通过流域处理这些改变的实践以影响下游河口生态系统健康（例如，水质，低氧）的科学假设。一个总体假设是，气候引起的农业实践和生态系统过程的适应性变化将导致大间接的候选效应，从而通过分水岭传播到河口。对于这项工作，物候概念的扩展超出了其季节性生命周期事件（例如树木开花）的通常含义，以便在供水系统过程中进行季节性事件。该项目方法涉及三个研究团队的同时合作和集成活动：经济学和政策，分水岭和河口。经济学和政策团队包括农业和环境经济学家，其经验模型供养并限制了由分水岭和河口团队开发和联系的模拟模型。 Chesapeake供水系统（CWS）被用作研究地点，因为它具有丰富的长期数据记录。这些数据与模型的合成将使比较分析能够揭示人与自然驱动因素与过程之间的广泛关系，这些关系很好地推断了全球的水系统。这项研究将提高知识：1）气候变化如何影响农业实践的时机和类型； 2）流域模型的时间和空间尺度如何影响对养分递送的模拟影响； 3）气候变化对生态系统的直接影响与通过分水岭级联的间接影响相比如何； 4）替代管理政策（具有不同的规则和激励措施）如何影响农业行为，从而影响生态健康。这项努力还将促进如何最好地理解如何最好地将经济和政策建模的方法与分水岭和河口模拟的方法联系起来，这与在气候变化下保持水系统的可持续性有关。农民适应的农业模型将在经验上证明，气候变化如何改变实践的空间和时间分布，从而使建模方法的转化并改善了模型的观察基础。此外，这项工作将通过表征与理解采用/合规性相关的量表来测试旨在管理农业营养排放的政策的能力。 分水岭团队将使用流程理解 - 从多个流域跨数据合成的过程理解 - 评估在策略应用程序中通常被忽略的常规模型中的结构不确定性。河口团队的数据综合将搜索与气候相关的时间和营养负荷量的变化，并使用数值模拟模型来量化对海湾健康的影响。经济和政策团队将采用一种新型的国家控制污染控制方法，融合了不确定性。通过这些模型的开发和联系，该项目将有助于改变气候变化的影响评估和反应，在理解河口供水系统的长期可持续性时解决基本知识差距，并开发新的工具和理解，这些工具和理解适用于受农业用地影响影响的其他水体。该项目的更广泛影响的领域包括：1）劳动力招募和培训； 2）将工具和知识转移到环境管理机构； 3）增进了公众理解和K-16科学教育。在第一个方面，该项目将招募，培训和导师8-12 s和博士生，从事生态，经济学，水文学，海洋学和工程学的职业，重点是水质，农业可持续性，环境政策分析和气候变化。其次，该团队将继续与USDA，USEPA，USGS以及与Chesapeake Bay计划合作的其他联邦和州机构的调查人员紧密合作，以开发更好的集成建模工具，以建模对环境管理的支持。与Bay Management社区的互动将包括与合作者的定期会议，CBP会议上的调查结果和协作讲习班的演示。第三，通过将产品整合到一个非常成功的NSF Cosee计划中，包括培训15名高中教师的新研讨会，将改善K-16教育。