AGS-PRF: Improving Space Weather and Space Climate Predictions by Investigating and Modeling Surface Flux Transport on the Sun

AGS-PRF：通过研究和模拟太阳表面通量传输来改进空间天气和空间气候预测

• 批准号: 1624438
• 负责人: Lisa Upton
• 金额: $ 8.6万
• 依托单位: Upton Lisa A
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-03-01 至 2019-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1624438&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: AGS; PRF; Improving; Space; Weather

The goal of this two-year postgraduate fellowship research project is to improve the forecasting capabilities of space climate and space weather models. Solar storms, which are one component of space weather, have the potential to do significant damage to satellites, power grids, and humans in space. Prediction of these eruptions from the solar surface is in its infancy and this project vastly improve the basis of the predictive models. The goals are to improve understanding of the flows on the Sun's surface, the interaction of these flows with the magnetic field, and how the flows combine with the magnetic field to impact the Sun's eleven year cycle and its dynamo. One very important task project is to produce the most accurate full-Sun maps of the magnetic field on the surface (the photosphere) to date. This is very timely as this model and its resulting products will be immediately useful to forecasters such as those at NOAA/SWPC (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administrations Space Weather Prediction Center). The Principle Investigator of this project is an early career scientist from an underrepresented minority who will work with undergraduate (REU) students to carry out the work.This project is based on the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model, developed by the PI and her collaborators at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). This is a surface flux transport model that advects the magnetic flux on the sun using observational data for of near-surface flows. It can also assimilate magnetogram data for increased realism. Some of the stated goals of this project are to promote AFT as a cross discipline bridge, and to improve the space weather and climate forecasting capabilities of the model. This will be done, in part, by providing synchronic maps as magnetic source data, interfacing with dynamo models to connect with internal dynamics, investigating active region source properties, incorporating complex far-side active region emergence and investigate ever more sophisticated data assimilation techniques. Accomplishing these goals will help provide the knowledge needed to reproduce a range of cycle amplitudes and variations, potentially including the recovery from a Maunder-type Grand minimum and improve our understanding of the role of surface dynamics in modulating the solar activity cycle which will extend the predictive capability of flux transport models.

这个为期两年的研究生奖学金研究项目的目的是提高太空气候和太空天气模型的预测能力。太阳风暴是太空天气的一部分，有可能对太空中的卫星，电网和人类造成重大损害。 从太阳表面对这些喷发的预测仍处于起步阶段，该项目大大改善了预测模型的基础。目标是提高对太阳表面流动的了解，这些流与磁场的相互作用，以及流动如何与磁场结合，以影响太阳的11年周期及其发电机。迄今为止，一个非常重要的任务项目是在表面（光球）上产生最准确的磁场的全阳光图。这是非常及时的，因为该模型及其产生的产品将立即对NOAA/SWPC（国家海洋学和大气管理太空天气预测中心）等预报员立即有用。该项目的主要研究人员是来自人为不足的少数群体的早期职业科学家，他们将与本科生（REU）学生合作进行工作。该项目基于PI和她的合作者在国家大气层研究中心（NCAR）（NCAR）开发的Advelactive Flux Transport（AFT）模型。这是一种表面通量传输模型，可使用近表面流的观察数据来延伸太阳上的磁通量。它还可以吸收磁通图以增加现实主义。该项目的一些既定目标是将船尾作为跨学科桥梁提升，并改善该模型的太空天气和气候预测能力。这将在某种程度上通过提供同步图作为磁源数据，与Dynamo模型接口以与内部动力学联系，研究活动区域源特性，并结合了复杂的远侧活性区域出现并研究了越来越复杂的数据同化技术。实现这些目标将有助于提供重现一系列循环幅度和变化所需的知识，包括从Maunder型巨大的最低限度中恢复，并提高我们对调节太阳能活动周期中表面动态作用的理解，这将扩大通量传输模型的预测能力。