Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: Multi-scale modeling and observations of landscape dynamics, mass balance, and network connectivity for a sustainable Ganges-Brahmaputra delta

沿海 SEES 合作研究：可持续恒河-雅鲁藏布江三角洲的景观动态、质量平衡和网络连通性的多尺度建模和观测

基本信息

批准号：
1600222
负责人：
Paola Passalacqua
金额：
$ 39.43万
依托单位：
University of Texas at Austin
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2016-08-01 至 2021-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1600222&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Coastal SEES Collaborative Research Multi

项目摘要

River deltas around the world are in a state of modest to severe decline, primarily in response to anthropogenic activities such as the damming of rivers, extensive embankment systems, groundwater and gas extraction, and intense land-use pressures. These settings are also among the world's most physically dynamic, being impacted by sea-level rise and subsidence, river flooding, channel erosion, and storms. Such vulnerabilities are further magnified in highly populated delta systems, notably the large mega-deltas that rim Asian coasts in politically sensitive regions from Pakistan to China. These environments suffer not only from having more humans, infrastructure, and livelihoods in peril, but also from the anthropogenic strain that large populations place on physical and ecological support systems. In Bangladesh and West Bengal, India, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta (GBMD) may well be the prime example as the world's largest and most densely populated delta system, hosting 150 million people in an area the size of Louisiana. In this Coastal SEES project, a diverse group of scholars with expertise across several earth-science and engineering disciplines are brought together to answer questions about the fate and future sustainability of the GBMD and its human population. Specifically, is there sufficient river sediment available for the delta to keep pace with sea-level rise to 2100? How does the delta's network of river and tidal channels effectively distribute water and sediment across the region? How are human activities affecting this channel-network system, and what are the subsequent repercussions on human infrastructure? How can research-based knowledge developed in response to these questions help with planning and decision making for a sustainable GBMD and deltas elsewhere? To address these questions, the project combines innovative quantitative tools (numerical modeling, network and connectivity analysis) with new and existing observational data to analyze the coupled human-natural system and long-term sustainability of the GBMD. Specifically, team members will (i) develop a detailed mass balance for delta-wide sediment dispersal; (ii) quantitatively analyze the connectivity of the delta-system network that disperses this sediment; (iii) integrate this knowledge through numerical modeling at local to global scales; (iv) use observational data of landscape and channel dynamics to understand coupled land-sea interactions; (v) evaluate the quality of regional soil and water resources and their links with physical and anthropogenic processes; (vi) assess the impact of these delta dynamics on the human environment and transportation, and finally (vii) disseminate this knowledge through a variety of educational activities and opportunities for students, researchers, and professionals. Team members have collaborated extensively with local entities and universities in Bangladesh; through these contacts the knowledge developed in this project will reach relevant stakeholder communities. Findings are especially urgent to guide large-scale engineering efforts underway to improve the Bangladesh coastal-zone stability. Final products will provide a grounded, integrated, and multidisciplinary view of how the world's largest delta works and its plausible responses to environmental change in the coming century.Some of the international activities in this project are partially supported by a small contribution from the OISE Global Venture Fund.

世界各地的三角洲河流处于适度至严重下降的状态，主要是响应人为活动，例如河流堵塞，广泛的路堤系统，地下水和天然气提取以及强烈的土地用途压力。这些环境也是世界上最动态的，受到海平面上升和沉降，河流洪水，河道侵蚀和风暴的影响。这种脆弱性在人口稠密的三角洲系统中得到了进一步放大，尤其是从巴基斯坦到中国政治敏感地区的亚洲人海岸的大型大型巨型。这些环境不仅遭受了更多的人类，基础设施和危险生计的影响，还遭受了大人群置于物理和生态支持系统上的人为菌株。在印度孟加拉国和西孟加拉邦，恒河 - 布拉马普特拉 - 梅格纳三角洲（GBMD）很可能是世界上人口最大，人口最多的三角洲系统，在路易斯安那州大小的地区拥有1.5亿人。在这个沿海地区的项目中，在几个地球科学和工程学科中具有专业知识的各种各样的学者被汇集在一起，以回答有关GBMD及其人口的命运和未来可持续性的问题。具体来说，是否有足够的河流沉积物可供三角洲保持步伐，海平面上升至2100？三角洲的河流和潮汐通道网络如何在该地区有效地分配水和沉积物？人类的活动如何影响这种渠道网络系统，随后对人类基础设施的影响是什么？回答这些问题的基于研究的知识如何有助于对其他地方的可持续GBMD和Deltas进行计划和决策？为了解决这些问题，该项目将创新的定量工具（数值建模，网络和连接分析）与新的和现有的观察数据结合在一起，以分析耦合的人类自然系统和GBMD的长期可持续性。具体来说，团队成员（i）将为三角洲的沉积物散布建立详细的质量平衡；（ii）定量分析分散这种沉积物的三角洲系统网络的连通性；（iii）通过本地到全球量表的数值建模来整合这些知识；（iv）使用景观和渠道动力学的观察数据来了解耦合的陆海相互作用；（v）评估区域土壤和水资源的质量及其与物理和人为过程的联系；（vi）评估这些三角洲动力学对人类环境和运输的影响，最后（vii）通过为学生，研究人员和专业人员提供各种教育活动和机会来传播这些知识。团队成员与孟加拉国的地方实体和大学进行了广泛的合作。通过这些联系，该项目中发展的知识将吸引相关的利益相关者社区。调查结果特别迫切地指导正在进行的大规模工程工作以改善孟加拉国沿海地区的稳定性。最终产品将提供扎根，综合和多学科的观点，了解世界上最大的三角洲如何运作及其对环境变化的合理反应。该项目的国际活动中的某些活动得到了OISE全球风险基金的一小部分贡献。